First Hyundai now BMW. Ditching Fuel Cell Vehicles

A $10k iMiEV may have a future, but it won't be possible without building out the L2 infrastructure in support of the shorter range BEVs being sold now, and the 150 mile ones coming.

In order for an iMiEV to cost $10k, battery prices with have to drop below $200/kWh or carbon fiber to get dirt cheap for a smaller battery. Either way, in the time of $10k iMiEVs, a bare bones 100 mile EV will be well under $15k and a 200 mile one under $20k.

 

really? Let's see - 1st Musk said he'd build a roadster - and he did. Then he said he'd build a high end EV that surpassed other manufacturers offerings - and he did that. Then, to show continued support for the roadster, he had an extended range upgrade designed to increase its travel distance to ~400 miles. THEN, he said he'd build a killer SUV type EV, and now THAT one is in the process of starting its release (20,000 + pre-orders). Next, he's planning the model 3 ... 200 mile range - and affordable. He's done what he said he'd do before. What is your basis for thinking this next project will be more difficult or impossible?
BTW, The model S was never supposed to be for the average or mediocre salaried person. It's the Model 3 that will be designed to be main stream
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problems with hydrogen stations

 

1 Volt recalled. That was interesting.

 

Difficult? getting battery prices to $100/kWh while increasing energy density x2.

 

Lucky the model 3 only needs a $200/kwh battery, and they are guessing the gigafactory will bring it down to around $175. We won't know until 2 years from now what it costs, but ....

If you can get 200 miles @ 110 mpge you probably need a 55 kwh battery. Multiply by $200 = $11,000. Say 20% are in carb states or countries that give credits worth $8000, then you can drop it buy $1600 by selling the credits. That makes it 9,400 @ 25% margin means sell it for for $12,550 with a nice profit. That means you need to sell the rest of the car for $22,450. A camry hybrid is $27,000, toyota could easily sell it for $22,450 if it didn't need an engine, gas tank, or pollution control. I think it will be tough for tesla to sell it for $35,000 but the problem won't be battery costs.

 

Well it won't be tough to sell but the question is if it prices you out from intended market. Problem isn't that iMIEV or Spark EV are expensive, problem is that they are expensive for what they are.

Since BEV is restricted by technology, meaning that it cannot do all things regular car does, then it has to be cheaper to compete.

For example if you take iMIEV and Mirage, they care pretty much equivalents - cheap commuter compliment to family car. But when you compare lifetime costs iMIEV cannot beat Mirage and it doesn't have the flexibility of it either. IF Model 3 would compete against regular Prius and other hybrids in this segment then it is in trouble. It is obviously less flexible then gasoline powered hybrids and not sure that even with all subsidies it compares favorable in terms of costs.

Now if Model 3 competes with entry level BMWs, MBs, Audies and Lexuses, and there is HOV stickers then it is completely different matter. But then they are only going after that market share.

 

These statements may apply to you, but they are made as if they apply to everyone. There are folks with solar panels quite ready to fuel their vehicle for free. There are those liking the recharge at home capability. There are those liking the reliability and other characteristic of EV drive. There are those liking the pollution free possibilities of EV use. There are those figuring gas prices are going to soar. etc. etc.

There is no question for EVs to overtake the ICE market, a whole lot of EV cost breakthroughs have to occur and gas cost must become beyond painful. At some point that will happen. But that is not today's issue. Today's question... is the EV "niche" market big enough to support mass produced EVs. So far the answer is shaping up as yes.

 

Sorry bout that. Did not realize I hit a nerve.

 

Oh the challenge for tesla isn't going to be that, but can it bring those bean counter/engineering/manufacturing expertise that Lexus and bmw have to get the manufacturing costs down. I have no doubt the gigafactory/net the zev and foreign credits will get the battery/motor/inverter costs down low enough for the drivetrain, but tesla currently is building low volume aluminum unibodies. The question is how fast they adapt to get the price down while maintaining the quality for higher volume probably steel unibody. I think it will be about $40K, but I'm sure if they worked with the Lexus and bmw design for manufacturing guys they could price it below $35,000.

I think people will pay more than for a gasoline car to get that electric acceleration (probably 0-60 around 5.5 seconds) but feels as good or better than the bmw 335i's slightly faster acceleration. People pay alot for that bmw over say a camry. Add the convenience of charging at home, people will pay a premium over a camry or accord or fusion. It definitely needs to be less than than 335i ($44,500), but can be a lot more than the 4 cyclinder midsize pack of cars.

No definitely will cost more than a prius in tco. I think it will hit a different market, that wants better acceleration and handling and is willing to pay for that. Those that want a cheaper plug-in will go for a leaf or volt, but this market for performance and the ability to not go to gas station may be pretty big.

bmw 3 series sold 142,000 in the us last year. The lexus es 72,000. Chinese market could be as big as the US. If Tesla can sell 100,000, model 3 half in the US on top of the 50,000 S's and X's this year, that will be pretty successful 150,000 cars. By 2020 they hope to sell more S's and X's and model 3s and will have a new roadster. 200,000 a pretty good goal for 2020. If they get there they will have plenty of cash to bring the price of the cars down further. BMW will have a plug-in hybrid 330e to compete, but I expect that and the tesla to grow this sport sedan market and have people move up from other midsize cars.

Since this is a fuel cell thread, carb came out this week with a new estimate. Manufacturers now estimate they will could sell 34,300 through 2021 from the 179 that are operating in california today. That is not per year but total of just over 34,000 in the 6 years from 2016-2021 or an average of 5,670/year. That makes any estimates for the model 3 look good. Unfortunately carb says that the 86 stations they plan to have built by that time are inadequate to fuel that many cars, so either someone comes up with more cash or the number will be lower.

 

Apologies likewise. It is not that you hit the nerve, it is just we went through this in this thread a couple pages back.

By any means I am not trying to put BEVs down; merely stating that they are different from ICE-powered cars with both strength and shortcomings. They are not 100% equivalents, as say cars and trucks or SUVs are not in a different way.

 

Woohooo ..... I want one of those, or one of each!!

 

Normally we talk about plug-ins as a group and not strickly BEVs, but include phevs. PHEVs may be able to provide all or most of daily mileage electrically, but have gas for occasional longer trips. The gen II volt or i3-rex should be able to provide electric miles on over 90% of trips (not miles as those non-electric trips will be longer). Price, choice, and aversion to new technology prevent a large penetration right now, but UCS estimated that 42% have charging availability and driving routes appropriate for a plug-in.

58 Percent Of US Population Can't Join EV Revolution Without A Plug

You fall into the other 58%, but most of that 58% unfortunately are not good candiates for fcv either. I think you are part of that catagory where a fcv and a plug-in are not appropriate for your driving patterns.

 

Those concerned "scientists" should be ashamed of themselves. They did not take into account the fact that many households have two or more cars. Just because someone needs to carry more than 5 people (sometimes) or needs to tow something (sometimes) does not mean that one of their 2 or 3 or more cars could not be an EV or PHEV.

Mike

 

They did, "Own more than one vehicle or infrequently take long trips. A second vehicle enables longer driving ranges during vacations and trips. 65% of U.S. households have more than one vehicle." for other requirements to utilize a BEV.

The full report: http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/UCS-and-CU-Electric-Vehicle-Survey-Methodology.pdf

 

the ol' return on investment tangent, that's great. When is the Harley return on investment pay off .... when is it for a motor home, or dually pickup/cabover camper. How about that Corvette or Ford Expedition ... point being, the fact that a plugin has less smog & fuel costs than other similarly situated rides, is not necessarily the whole picture. Unlike the natural gas/hydrogen car manufacturer though, they're not trying to pass their self off as capable of being totally fossil fuel free.
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So you basically admit that you lost "I am saving soo much with BEV" argument?

"After all I spent 70K on Tesla and now it costs me a few bucks to fill it up instead $23-38 in that gas grizzling Prius. I mean that thing was a money pit, I had to fill it up twice a month. I don't know how I didn't go broke in 5 years owning it".

Maybe we should work on "I am saving environment" next.

 

i-MIEV is for sale at your local Mitsu dealer, but unfortunately not for 10k! they are more like 22k with all credits. It is a funky looking city car, which does not accelerate or handle, from company who built EVO.

But you know what? if they had Google-drive there and the range I know a truckload of people who would have bought one in a heart beat. As long as the seat is comfortable to sleep for 50-100mi commute one way.

 

Toyota Tackles Hydrogen Fueling Challenges As Mirai Launch Approaches: UPDATED