Arctic Sea ice 2015

I checked the earlier transits and these names showed up:

Indiga
Anichkov Bridge
SCF Amur
Varzuga
Egvekinot
Ierax
Igor Ilinskiy
Inzhener Veshnyakov
Iohann Mahmastal
Khatanga
Kunashir
Oden
Palladiy
Paramushir
SCF Neva
Yaroslav Mydryy
Akademik Tryoshnikov
Hanseatic
Ivan Ryabov
Kapitan Khlebnikov
Mikhail Lomonosov
Nordic Oshima
Odoevsk
Polar King
SCF Pechora
Spasatel Zaborshikov
Tor Viking
Transshelf
Yuriy Tarapurov​

Bob Wilson

 

I combined a couple of images from the Russian web site that highlight the ice breaker operation:

The ice slice by the Russian ice breakers weakened an ice barrier letting the scattered ice escape to warmer waters and melt out.

Now a lot of the Northeast passage opening is just the warmer climate on the Russian side. The Canadian side has islands that may provide shelter for summer ice. But I'm also wondering to what extent the annual shipping is keeping the Russian ice 'young' as opposed to older, multi-year Canadian ice?

It may be the Canadians need to force open some of the blocked passages some year to let the old ice fracture and move out. The next year, the younger ice will be a lot easier to deal with. But the Canadians also have native populations who expect ice year round for hunting. Not an easy choice.

Bob Wilson

 

Looks like someone else is watching the Arctic:2015 Arctic melting season won't break records, but could wipe the 'recovery' | Neven Acropolis | Environment | The Guardian

. . .
There is still virtually no chance of 2015 beating the 2012 record, but something more important for the longer term could be happening. If this weather keeps up – and according to the current forecasts, it will for at least another week – that thicker multi-year ice could receive such a beating that the slight rebound from record low levels is essentially wiped out by the time winter sets in again.


On top of that, it looks highly probable that both the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route open up again simultaneously, a previously rare, but now frequent event.


Last week a research paper was published showing how Arctic sea ice volume had rebounded after the crash of 2012. It’s too early tell, but if this rebound does get wiped out, the Arctic will remain poised for larger losses, as soon as conditions are right for large-scale melting. We’ll know more come September.”
. . .​

New link to Arctic ice: VIsualization Service of Horizontal scale Observations at Polar region

Bob Wilson

​

 

Curious, I saw this interesting graph about Antarctica sea ice:

Wondering what was going on, I found what looked like 'shark bites' in the sea ice:

Another view:

And then I remembered the Unisys SST charts like this one:


The 'sharks' are local eddys of relatively warm water that reach down to the Antarctic sea ice. And so it begins.

Found another source: Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area

• 2002 - Larson B collapsed
• 2015 - hummmm

Bob Wilson

 

Back in the Canadian Arctic, it looks like a Northwest passage (actually one of several routes) appears to be opening with ice collapse:

There are a couple more weeks of melting going on. It is entirely possible we'll see more than one route through the Canadian Northern islands.

UPDATE: August 5, 2015

. . . The Northern Sea Route appears to be mostly open, except for a narrow section along the Taymyr Peninsula. The Northwest Passage is still clogged with ice. . . .​

UPDATE2: August 7, 2015 (posted)

On August 5, 2015, a problem arose with the F17 DMSP satellite that provides data to generate the daily maps and time series in the NSIDC Sea Ice Index and Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis, as well as the Greenland Today daily melt extent. This has led to spurious values of sea ice for both the Arctic and Antarctic, and unreliable melt data for Greenland for this date. NSIDC has removed the spurious data, and is closely monitoring the incoming F17 data stream. The dark grey areas in the daily extent image indicate where data are missing.
Source: A problem with the F17 DMSP Satellite | Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis​

UPDATE3: August 17, 2015 (posted)

Arctic sea ice extent is now tracking below 2010, 2013, and 2014. Openings in the ice cover have continued to expand within the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. While the Northern Sea Route has opened, the Northwest Passage remains clogged with considerable ice in the channels of the Canadian Archipelago. However, some data sources indicate narrow openings in the ice where navigation may be possible.​

Bob Wilson

 

August 13, 2015

Arctic - It looks like both the German and Russian Arctic systems are showing one Northwest passage open. A second Northwest passage is still under melt and showing evidence of ice break-up. There are nearly six weeks of melt remaining suggesting this year will lead to a more ice free 2016 because the multi-year ice will be gone.

Antarctica - I had not paid much attention in the past but it looks like latitude 60S is the rough boundary for sea ice. Then there are some strange density changes that resemble the pot-holes that show up on our roads when a cold snap warms up. In our roads, water seeps into cracks and freezing expands it to fracture the road surface and when it melts . . . voila a pot-hole. This appears to be happening at the end of the Antarctic freezing season:

In effect, local colder events cause water in the sea ice fractures to freeze and push apart the existing sea ice BUT this does not show up right away as fractured ice . . . until a warm-spell lets that new and old ice melt and suddenly there is the pot-hole equivalent in the Antarctic sea ice. The eastern pack area shows this effect. Weakened enough, vast swaths are pulled away into the southern oceans and soon enough, to melt.

The 2015-2016 Antarctica season looks to be interesting.

Bob Wilson

 

Source: Destination: Arctic | The Arctic Journal

. . .
“There are almost no ships using it as a transit route. Whether it’s bulk or container, the cargo just isn’t there,” says Sergey Balmasov, the head of the Northern Sea Route Information Office, which assists ships seeking to make transit voyages.

For some cargoes, sailing between certain cities, northern shipping might carry some benefits, but unless you are shipping to or from a destination in the Arctic, you’re probably better off going south.
. . .
the Northern Sea Route, Mr Balmasov admits, still has two major disadvantages compared with traditional shipping routes: sailing conditions are less predictable and, by extension, ships cannot be certain of when they will arrive at their destination.
. . .
Technology can also provide a challenge: NSR officials, according to Mr Blamasov, at one point this summer lost access to the satellites that provide them with information about sea ice.

But even if the route is open and monitoring systems are working as they should, ships still have no guarantee that they can reach their destination by a specific date: fog and sea ice, which is present all year round, can slow or even stop traffic. Icebreakers can help, but this year, they are instead tied up with operations for the oil and gas industry.
. . . ​

Possible does not always mean practical:


Still, Arctic shipping happens and right now looks like the lower part of an "S" curve. Improvements needed:

• ice breakers - Russia is building some including another nuclear
• safe harbors - Russia is expanding former Soviet bases
• reasons to go there - US and Russia are looking for oil

The shipping summary is usually published in November/December. Past years have shown 40-60 transits per year and this year, the break-up happened late. Regardless, global warming is real and opening the Arctic:

Another reason may be the reason why shippers go North in the first place.

“East-west trade in the Arctic doesn't exist,” he says. “Voyages begin and end in the North. If Arctic shipping is to grow, the economies of the Arctic will have to grow.”

His own prediction is that the number of cargo ships sailing the NSR and the Northwest Passage will increase, but the growth will be marginal, and the vast majority of the growth will be in point-to-point shipments. “I don’t see a major highway in the north.”

More of a slip road, in fact.​

Bob Wilson

 

I was mostly just updating earlier posts in this thread with later details and only adding something when new, significant events occurred. This was just under my threshold:

YONG SHENG arrived at
port BRAKE
at 2015-08-21 00:28 UTC
Time of arrival is the time the vessel approaches the entrance of the port

Vessel Details Current position, if within range Position and trackShip's Photos​

This is the Chinese vessel that sailed the Northeast Passage (aka., Russian side) of the Arctic. They are planning to return before the end of season. Meanwhile, they are scrambling around the EU making deliveries and possibly picking up stuff for their return trip.

I'm going to send a note to the marine tracking services to see what it would take to monitor traffic through the Arctic next year. The 'free' system use shore-based, radios to track ships, part of an anti-collision system. But the Soviets/Russians never implement any part of this network for their side the Arctic. I don't think the Canadians and USA/Alaska did on their Arctic shores. There just wasn't enough traffic to justify the system. However, there are newer, satellite systems that should give Arctic tracking.

BTW, I stumbled across a description of how satellites non-optically track sea ice . . . wave motion. There are multiple satellites that use microwave (i.e., radar) returns to detect wave motion. Only ice has no motion. This also gives surface current and wave height. Clever!



Return trip:

• Sept 4, 2015 - Yong Sheng departed from Hamburg
  
• Sept 8, 2015 - Yong Sheng is off the Norwegian coast, 13 knots, headed to Busan, S. Korea
• Sept 9, 2015 - Course 66 degrees, gradually turning East, WNW of Nordkapp Norway
• Sept 22, 2015 - Equinox, when ice begins to accumulate, again
• Sept 29, 2015 - T-AIS tracking resumes off the S. Korean coast, ~20 days to transit NorthEast passage

Other data points:

• Aug 28, 2015 - North Pole melt ice covered with ice and snow

Other news:

. . .
The Snow Dragon paid several hundred thousand dollars to Russian maritime authorities, largely as mandatory fees for crossing parts of Russia’s exclusive economic zones and also for an escort in the form of a Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker. Despite these additional costs, the voyage still worked out cheaper than the alternative.

“One day shaved off the voyage means a great reduction in labor costs and a 27 ton saving on fuel,” said Li Jianxiong, COSCO’s board representative.

The Northeast Passage has been a going concern in summer for at least five years, ever since two 10,000-ton German freighters traversed the route in summer without encountering difficulty.

The 3,000-nautical-mile Arctic waterway off Russia’s northern coast, also known as the North Sea Route, is now navigable for about two months in summer due to the retreat of pack ice in the Arctic. Climate change is expected to increase this navigable window to four months or longer by 2020, boosting the commercial value of Arctic waterways.
. . . ​

Source: In Cold Water | NewsChina Magazine

Bob Wilson

 

As of Sept 10, 2015, the German, Russian, and U. Chicago ice maps are showing two, Northwest passages open. The Canadian map lags a few days.

Arctic sea ice minimum in the next few days. However Greenland took a big hit along the northern coast.

Bob Wilson

 

I'm calling today the Arctic minimum:






Bob Wilson

 

I take no joy in this because our species lives on this planet. The climate models predict man-made, CO{2}, will warm the poles first and that is the case not only this year but past years. It looks like we've past a tipping point and we're in for a different future. Still, lessons learned:

• Cold snaps in temperate zones means higher ice melt in summer or reductions in freezing on the nearest pole in winter. The cold air comes from the poles but makes space for warm air to ascend to the polar regions.
• Northern hemisphere has a longer, solar exposure than Southern hemisphere which has a little higher intensity but briefer exposure.
• Antarctica has a significantly different melt pattern than the Arctic due to circumpolar currents and absence of containing continental shores. In the Arctic, warmer air from continental land mass can invade to melt ice or inhibit freezing. Antarctica has pretty much just the South Atlantic and the thermal characteristics of water inhibits the degree of heating compared to land-based heat that will have higher temperatures.

My expectation is sea level rise will accelerate from thermal expansion and ice sheet melt. I still don't have a good model for the temperature expansion but the ice losses from the major sheets is evident.

I also expect more Arctic shipping and considering the recent problems with the Panama and Suez canals, Arctic shipping makes sense. The Panama canal is rain-water limited and this is a climate issue. As for the Suez canal, hungry people can become people hunters, pirates.

As for deniers, they made their own bed and can float in it.

Bob Wilson