1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Volt 2.0: Ruess "It will leap-frog... the competition"

Discussion in 'GM Hybrids and EVs' started by Jeff N, Oct 1, 2014.

  1. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    Although, obviously, the typical use case for the 2016 Volt is to use the engine no more than 10-20% of the miles driven. The rest is on US average electricity at a carbon equivalent of 54 mpg gasoline. Or, usually even better when driven in the many areas with lower carbon grid power, with optional utility renewable power, or with rooftop solar. The Volt, as an electric plugin, can efficiently use renewable energy sources unlike the CT200h or even the Mirai in many cases today.
     
  2. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,994
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    I don't disagree with this. So, we give Volt $7,500 incentive and the others zero?

    Mirai is cleaner than Volt even with California electricity which is the cleanest in the states.
     
  3. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    That's not clear. The fueleconomy.gov emissions calculations are based on eGRID2012 V1.0 which is actually based on 2009 emissions reports. California renewable generation has been growing rapidly since then. One projection said that renewable electricity generation would approximately double in California between 2009 and 2015.

    It's quite possible that the fueleconomy.gov full upstream combined gas+electric emissions based on battery size EPA Utility Factors adjustments would show the same or lower California CO2 emissions for a 2016 Volt as a 2016 Mirai using H2 from steam reformed natural gas plus 33% renewable H2. The Volt will likely be about the same or lower CO2 emissions by 2020 when the 33% renewable electricity target is reach and then grows to 50% in 2030.

    For example, the 2013 NREL H2 pathways study says about 250 g CO2 per mile for 100% steam reformed H2 on a 67 MPGe fuel cell vehicle like the Mirai.

    So, with 33% renewable it would be 250 * .67 or 167 g per mile. The 2016 Volt is also probably around 167 g per mile using the old eGRID numbers for California (130 g per mile in EV alone).

    You like to use a Toyota graphic which implies 200 g CO2 per mile for a car like the Mirai. I don't think the detailed fueleconomy.gov numbers have been published yet for the Mirai (or the new Volt) so we have to guess in the interim.

    If we assume that lower Toyota number, then it would be 200 g at 67% or about 135 g per mile (at state-funded H2 stations). Once the eGRID numbers catch up with actual 2020 California retail grid emissions it is quite possible that the 2016 Volt combined gas+electric emissions estimate will fall to about the same ~140 g per mile level.

    When Mirai is fueled with 100% steam reformed NG H2, which it probably will be at non-state CA stations or at stations at other states, it will likely emit higher CO2 than today's fueleconomy.gov 2016 Volt gas+electric emissions of ~215 g per mile on US average electricity and those Volt results will continuously get better as the national grid cleans up and as the eGRID emissions database catches up to actual same-year emissions.
     
    #443 Jeff N, Aug 10, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2015
    Trollbait likes this.
  4. dbcassidy

    dbcassidy Toyota Hybrid Nation, 8 Million Strong

    Joined:
    May 13, 2008
    1,581
    290
    3
    Location:
    Middlesex County, MA
    Vehicle:
    2008 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    WOW, the Volt get the $7,500 incentive and the other zero???.......WHY?

    DBCassidy
     
  5. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    The US Congress failed to renew the law which gave fuel cell vehicles an $8,000 credit so the law automatically expired. The $7,500 battery credit is covered by a different law.

    Mirai still qualifies for a $5,000 rebate in California along with the $2,500 state rebate for BEVs or $1,500 rebate for PHEVs.

    Automakers Face New Challenge as Fuel Cell Car Tax Credit Dies | Edmunds.com
     
  6. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2006
    21,594
    11,213
    0
    Location:
    eastern Pennsylvania
    Vehicle:
    Other Non-Hybrid
    I think that $8000 credit was part of the hybrid tax credit law. So some Clarities and F-cells got the benefit, maybe if the value could be applied to the lease, but the FCEVs didn't show up like the fuel cell lobby claimed.

    As stated elsewhere(link in signature), the plugin credit was to support large pack batteries until technology advances and large scale manufacturing brought the price down, and it is working with the battery costs dropping by at least 7%(some say more) per year since the Volt and Leaf arrived. Regular hybrids and FCEVs should see some benefit from this too. The credit was never written with the idea of lowering emissions in mind.
     
    Zythryn and Jeff N like this.
  7. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,994
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    I was going by this.

    [​IMG]

    This is Obama's plan straight from The White House.

    In 2008, the President set an ambitious goal of putting 1 million advanced technology vehicles on the road by 2015 – which would reduce dependence on foreign oil and lead to a reduction in oil consumption of about 750 million barrels through 2030.

    The actual goal was to reduce importing foreign oil. How they would achieve it:

    ...to develop a battery that will go 300 miles on a single charge.

    Mirai has accomplished both and it "recharges" with domestic fuel in 3-5 minutes. Where is the lithium-ion battery pack that can go 300 miles in a single charge? Hydrogen fuel cell is the better battery (energy storage).

    The expectation for the battery was high and proven not achievable.

    As a result, in just the next few years, battery costs are expected to drop by half (2009-2013)

    We are saying it should. What's the point of driving zero tailpipe emission miles if it doesn't reduce emission? We want the solution that kills two birds with one stone (reduce emission and oil consumption), example set by Prius.
     
    #447 usbseawolf2000, Aug 11, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2015
  8. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    Thanks for the link, I hadn't read that article before.

    That graphic isn't terribly helpful because it doesn't tell us what kind of H2 is assumed for the Mirai (100% H2 from NG, or with 33% renewables?) and it doesn't tell us what model year Volt is being considered and what efficiency is assumed for it (the article was before GM's final 2016 Volt EPA numbers). It also doesn't tell us what electricity emissions are assumed.

    I'm looking around to see if I can clarify what data the LA Times graphic is actually based on.
     
  9. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    The answer is.... The Mirai result shown in the LA Times graphic assumes 46% renewable H2 and the Volt result is based on the 2015 model year. CA electricity is assumed using eGRID.

    If this chart were redone with 33% renewable H2 and the 2016 Volt EPA estimates then the numbers would presumably be substantially different even without adjusting the California electricity CO2 emissions to match this year's actual emissions instead of the emissions from several years ago.
     
    #449 Jeff N, Aug 11, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2015
    Trollbait likes this.
  10. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    The 2016 Volt tailpipe plus upstream emissions have just been added to fueleconomy.gov today. They are consistent with my earlier predictions on this thread here:

    Volt 2.0: Ruess "It will leap-frog... the competition"

    And here:
    Volt 2.0: Ruess "It will leap-frog... the competition"

    Here's a comparison chart for CO2 grams per mile for the California and U.S. average grid electricity (based on 2009 data) plus EPA gasoline estimates. The Prius PHEV and the Volts have CO2 estimates based on their SAE/EPA Utility Factor which is an estimate of the typical mix of electric versus gasoline miles based on the vehicle's battery EV range -- bigger batteries result in a smaller ratio of gasoline engine use. The Utility Factor estimates have been derived from and validated against real-world driving patterns.

    CA US city/combined/highway
    230 270 40/38/36 2016 Fusion Energi
    218 218 51/48/50 2015 Prius
    200 220 51/49/50 2015 Prius PHEV
    180 250 35/37/40 2015 Volt
    160 220 43/42/42 2016 Volt
    140 200 xx/39/xx 2015 BMW i3 REX

    Note that the 2016 Volt now has the same national average CO2 emissions estimate as the Prius PHEV.
     
    #450 Jeff N, Aug 31, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2015
  11. Sergiospl

    Sergiospl Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2011
    3,938
    1,351
    28
    Location:
    Florida
    Vehicle:
    2011 Prius
    Model:
    Two
    "160 220 43/42/42 2016 Volt"
    It's 53!
     
  12. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    Okay. I'm waiting.... :)
     
  13. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    12,747
    5,243
    57
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    CO2 is not the only tailpipe emission.
     
  14. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    Dennis was implicitly referring to CO2 when he wrote "clean" consistent with some of his earlier postings. I called that out specifically in a reply post on this thread and he did not disagree that CO2 upstream emissions were the "clean" target he was referring to.

    In any case, tailpipe plus upstream CO2 emissions are the only detailed calculated comparison available to us on fueleconomy.gov for vehicles that mix gasoline and electric energy sources.
     
  15. FL_Prius_Driver

    FL_Prius_Driver Senior Member

    Joined:
    Jun 17, 2007
    4,319
    1,527
    0
    Location:
    Tampa Bay
    Vehicle:
    2010 Prius
    Model:
    I
    Must be out shopping for one right now.
     
  16. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    Huh? The numbers I listed are hybrid-mode gasoline mpgs and they are correct.

    Perhaps you are thinking of the 2016 Volt's EV range.
     
    Sergiospl likes this.
  17. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,994
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    The new Volt is slightly higher than a regular Prius. I consider it clean but Gen 4 Prius will move the bar higher.

    My remaining criticism is what it takes to get there. A huge battery pack with long overnight charging. Still not a midsize 5 seater that still require $7,500 tax credit life support.
     
  18. Jeff N

    Jeff N The answer is 0042

    Joined:
    Oct 23, 2010
    2,382
    1,304
    0
    Location:
    California, USA
    Vehicle:
    2011 Chevy Volt
    Mirai on NG H2 is probably around 210-215 g per mile using combined EPA and UCS estimates. I don't see any upstream emissions estimates for Mirai on fueleconomy.gov yet.

    So, on NG H2 the Mirai might be 2-5% lower CO2 than the 2016 Volt on a Utility Factor mix of US average grid plus gasoline.

    However, we should keep in mind that the average grid CO2 emissions data is 6 years old and in the meantime the national average coal use in the grid has been plunging. Back then in 2009, coal made up 45% of the fuel mix for the U.S. grid. As of spring 2015, coal's fuel mix percentage on the U.S. grid has now dropped to 30%.

    See:
    SNL Mobile: Data Dispatch

    So, the 2016 Volt's actual national CO2 emissions today are probably significantly lower than the 220 g per mile reported by fueleconomy.gov.

    Mirai on 33% renewable plus NG H2 in California (as required by state regulations in state-funded H2 stations) would therefore likely get around 142 g per mile at best (using UCS estimates) versus the 2016 Volt's 160 g per mile estimate on CA grid electricity plus Utility Factor gasoline use.

    So, Mirai might be 11% or so lower CO2 on that comparison. But again, those underlying CA grid numbers are 6 years old and renewable grid levels have been dramatically improving since then -- from about 15% to 25% with a target of 33% by 2020 so the 2016 Volt in CA might be not far from the Mirai's CA ~142 g per mile today.

    At the moment, CA-funded H2 stations are initially projected to have 45% renewable H2 (so, more than required). But, if a Volt is driven more on EV than the EPA estimate or is charged up with higher renewable electricity than the average CA grid then the 2016 Volt might easily match or improve on the Mirai's emissions at 45% renewable.

    Basically, the 2016 Volt is roughly equivalent on CO2 emissions with the Mirai nationally on mostly NG H2 and in California within the next few years with 33-45% renewable H2. Yet the Mirai costs almost twice as much, requires a lot of new and expensive refueling infrastructure, and the H2 itself is more expensive per mile driven.
     
    #458 Jeff N, Aug 31, 2015
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2015
  19. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

    Joined:
    Jan 6, 2004
    12,747
    5,243
    57
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Vehicle:
    2017 Prius Prime
    Model:
    Prime Advanced
    So... after all these posts... we've found out that the "leap frog" will be lower CO2 emissions and the "competition" will be H2 vehicles.

    Volt has wandered so far from the original goal of attracting ordinary consumers and selling at a mainstream rate, what's the point of giving attention anymore? We'll continue to see some make gallant efforts to try to promote, but there's a big difference between proving a technology viable and selling large quantities without assistance profitably.

    Who cares about bragging rights? That's not what pays the bills. Automakers must produce something for the masses. Volt isn't it. The message is that simple.
     
  20. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2004
    14,487
    2,994
    0
    Location:
    Fort Lee, NJ
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius Plug-in
    Model:
    Plug-in Base
    If Volt has the simplified Malibu hybrid system, it could be as clean if not cleaner. Not to mention more roomy interior for practicality.

    Instead, it was made for bragging EV miles (originally meant to be a good thing).

    Welcome to the last gen, from emission perspective. 60 MPG for Gen4 Prius would get to around 185 g/mi.

    Volt will still require slow overnight charging. Without wireless charger, it'll be additional daily chore of plugging and unplugging.