VW says, fuel cells stupid for the next decade.

No one has presented a compelling answer for that, after 5 years.

With the goal of getting technology in the hands of ordinary people, it makes no sense giving so much for so few. Half the amount would reach twice as many... and force the automaker to make cost a high priority.

 

You and John should go back and read my reply again....

Short answer: HEVs not good enough alone for climate goals, plugins already as good or better than HEV equivalents, plugins already cleaner (lower CO2) than they appear and grid will get cleaner during their useful lifetime, first gen new tech products are never perfect and take time to gain traction so gotta start them early, grid must, can, and will get much cleaner in the next 2-3 decades.

So far it's looking like the battery credits have been very successful in pulling forward consumer plugin car options, spurring battery R&D, and helping dramatically reduce battery costs.

 

How can half as many be better?

Consider the entire fleet and the goal to replace production.

 

Imagine Prius Gen1 as clean as a Corolla and qualifies $7,500 tax credit? I would be outrage.

 

These statements (comparing 2016 Volt to 2010-2015 Prius) while being valid for the present may have very short life.
2016 Volt (still not on the roads?) should be compared to the coming Gen 4 Prius.

 

That point is meaningless with no numbers attached. The difference of using 1 gallon a year vs. 200 gallons a year does not justify putting those two vastly different results as being more similar than different. Pollution reduction is always a numbers game, not a yes or no finality.

No, it is not an outrage. It is an essential step. There are two pollution sources here, power plants and vehicles. Both must change to zero pollution conditions to get to sustainability. Holding back one or both to "synchronize" them just results in more long term pollution.

I don't have a problem with that. My view is different. I would like to minimize all incentives and just enforce reasonable regulations totally focused on eliminating pollution. Letting the economic tradeoffs figure out the best technologies would then follow the best path for getting there without needing incentives at all.

 

Disagree.

First, we do not have EPA estimates for the gen 4 Prius models so it makes comparisons against the 2016 Volt difficult.

Second, the Prius is one HEV car model or closely related group of models from one company. It's an excellent model but there is a bigger context than just Prius versus Volt.

The bigger picture is HEV vs. PHEV vs BEV (I think we all agree that conventional cars have to go away). It's looking like Prius models might come out with EPA CO2 emissions between 175-205 g per mile. While this is excellent, some PHEVs and especially BEVs will do better in their lifetime US national emissions and especially in the actual sales regions where most of these cars will actually be sold over the next 5 years (product lifecycle) the PHEVs and BEVs will do substantially better.

There are lots of HEVs that are 250 g per mile or worse. Again, it's unreasonable to cherry pick only the Prius and compare it to average emissions from other PHEVs.

We know that over time utility grid CO2 emissions are going to be coming down sharply. They have to come down and we know how to get it accomplished. Plugins can leverage those reductions efficiently.

 

Huhwut? Prius Gen 1? Versus which model year Corolla?

How about Volt gen 1?

The 2016 Corolla has a regular and Eco trim and several engine and transmission options that run between 311-351 g per mile CO2.

The 2015 Volt is 250 g on US average (2009) grid and 200 g CA average (2009) grid. The 2016 Volt is 220 g US and 160 g CA.

The grid numbers will probably get 20-40% better (since they are already obsolete) over the 15 year lifetime of the Volt's CARB battery warranty while the gasoline numbers will get worse due to increasing sour crude and tar sands oil etc. There are popular first gen BEVs (i3, Spark, LEAF, Fiat 500E) today with even better emissions numbers.

 

That is exactly why I said your comparison is only valid for the short present. The Volt 2 and Prius 4 will be on the market at the same time (considering their lifetime).
You have made the comparison, so who is the cherry picker here? All I said, putting it in other words: wait a month or two before making this specific comparison.
You say: look 8 or even 15 years ahead, but this is difficult to almost impossible as there are other factors to consider apart from grid getting cleaner. Example: Nobody knows what will be the EV efficiency (miles per kWh) of a 10 or 12 years old plug-in!
We all hope the grid will get cleaner fast, but to our frustration it is happening too slow.
My PiP emits slightly more CO2 than a regular Gen 3 Prius considering Israel national grid average and my personal EV driving ratio.

 

Not all fossil fuels are measured in gallons. However, the emission from the result of using is CO2 gram/mile.

Let's not pretend not burning gas gallons make all electricity carbon fuel free.

 

This forum would be a lot quieter if we had to follow your rule and patiently wait months or sometimes years for car makers to release final efficiency estimates on the very latest models. I'm just going with what we know at the moment. I'm fine with using reasonable temporary approximations when necessary and did so already for Prius 4.

This sub-thread discussion emerged as an assertion that plugins were a bad use of subsidies and I was pointing out that the HEV approach, in general, is not going to get us as far as we need to go with transportation carbon reduction in the intermediate future. The general trends of the next several decades are obvious unless there is a sudden change in our understanding of climate and CO2. I predict we will end up doing what needs to be done. This does not require supernatural powers of clairvoyance.

I see no evidence to suggest that 10-12 years old plugin cars will see significant efficiency reductions in the electric operation (at least any more than what happens to a HEV and we have data on that...) aside from capacity reductions that imply greater future use of the engine in a PHEV.

 

And how this (which what I meant really) can be weighed in your equation?

 

That is not my rule, I am sorry but you are trying to twist my words. Both new cars were announced at the same time (don't count days please), their emission levels in their countries of origin are known already, Volt 2 JC08 and Prius 4 EPA to follow.
The GM PHEV to compare with Gen 3 Prius for emissions is Volt 1 and it is loosing since it's introduction and will continue to loose in the near future. You know that and I suspect this is the reason you chose a vehicle which is not on the roads yet - instead.

 

Well, the information about the Volt has generally been available many months before similar information about the Prius 4.

GM gave some basic powertrain specs and pictures a year ago almost to the week. It was officially revealed in January, not September. We've known intricate details of its transaxle design since February. Several technical papers about its electric motors, engine, transmission, etc. were published by SAE in April. Preliminary EPA efficiency specs since spring and final specs since late summer.

Toyota just barely allowed us to see what the Prius 4 superficially looks like and has given only vague generalities about efficiency. The only reason we think we know more is because of the leaked internal document images.

The Volt is not sold in Japan so we will never get a JC08 estimate for it. To do fair comparisons we have to wait for EPA numbers from Toyota for the new Prius.

I personally drove a 2016 Volt last week during a media test drive event. My driving partner and I floored the accelerator, whipped the car around winding curvy roads, as well as driving more sedately and listening for engine noise and rpm rates. The total driving route, on public roads, was around 80 miles.

The first train loads of cars left the factory a couple of weeks ago and are arriving at dealerships this weekend for delivery to customers.

Here's one at a Los Angeles area dealer yesterday:

 

This is the issue of eventual battery capacity reductions over time leading PHEVs (but not necessarily BEV drivers) to use more gas engine miles.

This is somewhat a function of battery size. I expect this to be a bigger issue for PHEVs with smaller batteries. If you have 11-20 miles of plugin range you may already be driving a large percentage of gasoline miles. If you have 40-53 miles of plugin range and eventually lose 5-10 miles it will likely have less of an impact on gas engine miles. This is measured by a Utility Factor curve.




In any case, substantial battery capacity losses probably won't be seen for 8+ years during which the grid will be getting cleaned up and which will continue beyond that point. I suspect the overall result will still be a clear win for PHEVs and a certain win for BEVs.

 

Who made these assumptions? Why connecting them to an answer to my post with quoting my post if not to plant them as mine?
Sorry, I was not expecting this kind of manipulation from you, but maybe you just throw pancakes from Fred's house.

 

You pinpointed it. The question remains why didn't you mention it in your original post.

 

I brought up the Volt 1 as a reply to Jeff N post comparing emissions of the 'soon on the lots' Volt 2 to those of 2010 Prius. My comment was that fair comparison would have been to the 'on the lots in 2 months' Gen 4 Prius and the Gen 3 Prius emissions should fairly compared to Volt 1. (A statement that somewhow he did not agree to...)