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Polar Ice For 2016

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    In celebration of the 2015 Solstice, time to start another polar ice watch:
    Arctic

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area

    Antarctica

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area

    In about 6-7 months, the Northeast passage will open for navigation. Then the Northwest passage for a couple of weeks. As for land based ice, still looking for current observations.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #1 bwilson4web, Dec 23, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 19, 2016
  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source:
    Above-Freezing North Pole Caps Year of Arctic Extremes


    The storm system that dumped record-breaking rain on England this week had flung a mass of warm, southern air over the North Pole, pushing the temperature more than 10 degrees Celsius above normal.

    It's not the first time it's been this warm up there this late in the year. Since 1948, the planet's northernmost reaches have seen above-freezing temperatures in three other Decembers, according to a tweet from Weather Underground meteorologist Bob Henson.
    . . .
    The year 2015 has been the region's warmest on record. That's true for the planet as a whole, too. But while the average global temperature has risen 1 degree Celsius since pre-industrial times, the Arctic is up 3 degrees.


    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    A group is making a study of polar ice: imbie.org

    Fluctuations in the mass of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are of considerable importance to society because of their direct impact on global sea levels. In recent decades, ice losses from Antarctica and Greenland, in addition to melting of small glaciers and ice caps, and thermal expansion of the oceans, has caused global sea levels to rise at an average rate of 3.1 millimeters per year (Solomon et al., 2007) (see figure below). Forecasts indicate that rising sea levels will continue into the future at a rate that could pose a serious threat to lives and livelihoods across the globe, jeopardizing, for example, sanitation, agriculture and homes (Parry et al., 2007). Lessening the impacts of sea level rise through effective adaptation and mitigation measures, relies upon accurate forecasts of its magnitude and rate; this, in turn, depends on our ability to accurately measure and understand each contributor to sea level rise.

    [​IMG]
    Annually averaged global mean sea level (mm) from reconstructed tide-gauge
    data (red), coastal tide gauge measurements (blue) and satellite altimetry (black).

    Bob Wilson
     
    #3 bwilson4web, Jan 9, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2016
  4. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Heres current arctic ice cover of 30% concentration .Its a month ahead of normal. icecover_current.png
     
  5. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    bwilson4web likes this.
  6. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    The 15% graph you point to is not accurate.Which was clearly stated in the description previously, recommending not to use that graph in comparison to previous years.But its good enough for climate scientists and liars such as yourself.

     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Thanks! Someone else as anal about polar ice:
    No problem:

    “It is a well known fact that reality has liberal bias.” - Stephen Colbert

    Bob Wilson
     
  8. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Im a leftist and I consider myself to be an environmentalist .
    Im just not a liar.
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Thanks @fuzzy1. I've added that link to the first page of the thread.

    Bob Wilson
     
  10. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Readers are invited to follow the link to see the descriptions for themselves, on both graphs.
    In which post did I lie? Please be specific, otherwise I am attaching that label to you.
     
    #10 fuzzy1, Jan 9, 2016
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2016
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    As the Antarctic melt comes to a close, the risk is the residual ice might wind-blow and lock the ship in the ice during the freeze. Regardless, here is a peek at what it looks like this year, not the minimum but the ending of practical navigation:
    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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  13. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    If someone jumped on less than 10-year trends in ice around either pole, they'd not get my vote. 30 years would be even better. We exhaust and diminish ourselves with short-term focus. Hey look! a squirrel.

    These are inherently slow processes, following the large heat capacity of water. Oceans. This or that year's ice difference is fluff (poorly stated) but certainly beyond the reach of current climate models.
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I was planning to wait another 10-12 days but this came up:
    I'm a fan of looking at the local minimum and maximums because they often give insights by taking out the deadening effect to the middles. This is the same technique I used to disprove the '1998 pause' hypothesis. But the polar ice, sea ice, are something I'd only found interesting since the start of annual navigation through the Arctic. This thread is the first time, I've cast my gaze at both poles.

    First I looked at the 2016 Antarctica sea ice and noticed it was approaching a significant, local minimum. Since the sea ice record goes back to 1979, ~36 years, I recently selected the years when similar, local minimums occurred:
    [​IMG]
    I was surprised to see a 4-5 year periodicity in the local minimums with one outlier. It begs the question, what is going on?

    So the next step is to look at the highest, sea ice coverage. For perspective, I included the 2016 line and was surprised again:
    [​IMG]
    All of these high-value, minimums occurred in the a fairly narrow range with none before 2001. Hummmm, one of the model predictions is a warmer earth leads to more water vapor leading to more precipitation. This is as far as I've gone but this data suggests something has been increasing in the last 15 years. I wonder what that might be and the effects?

    It was the "30 year" comment while I was playing with 36 years of polar sea ice data that suggested there may be some interest. The next is to do the same for local Antarctica minimum and maximums. Then do the same analysis for the Arctic. Again, this is just the trick of using local minimums and maximums to determine what is really going on. In about 12 days, we should have the 2016, local minimum.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #14 bwilson4web, Feb 11, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2016
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Subject to change, we're approaching the Antarctic minimum:
    • 1.77021 km sq. - 2016, day 49
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
    #15 bwilson4web, Feb 22, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2016
  16. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Mojo's one and only 'accurate' graph of 2016 Arctic ice sea extent, has removed the 2016 line and now states:
    "This plot has been discontinued.
    Please refer to http: //ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php"

    Surprise, surprise, that referenced continuing plot is the very one that Mojo called me a "liar" for linking to. And its 2016 line is well below normal, though no worse than last year.

    No surprise that his preferred plot is now discontinued. Last year it's caption clearly stated that it was an old product, and was being continued only temporarily.

    Mojo's semi-prediction that last year '... may end up above average for arctic ice' failed very spectacularly. Now his sole evidence that 2016 ice cover is running above normal, has been yanked out from under his feet. All the many other sources show it running well below normal: Arctic Sea Ice Graphs

    So, will he finally turn civil? Or will he repeat the previous tantrums of desperation, with more name calling and profanity?
     
    #16 fuzzy1, Feb 28, 2016
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2016
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Take a quick look folks. The Arctic sea ice freeze appears to have stopped. There could be something later but right now, it looks to be over:

    Arctic sea ice was at a satellite-record low for the second month in a row. The first three weeks of February saw little ice growth, but extent rose during the last week of the month. Arctic sea ice typically reaches its maximum extent for the year in mid to late March.

    Arctic sea ice extent for February averaged 14.22 million square kilometers (5.48 million square miles), the lowest February extent in the satellite record. It is 1.16 million square kilometers (448,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average of 15.4 million square kilometers (5.94 million square miles) and is 200,000 square kilometers (77,000 square miles) below the previous record low for the month recorded in 2005.
    . . .
    In the Antarctic, sea ice reached its minimum extent for the year on February 19, averaging 2.6 million square kilometers (1 million square miles). It is the ninth lowest Antarctic sea ice minimum extent in the satellite record.

    Certainly the NorthEast passage will be open this year but possibly the NorthWest passage too. FYI, 2015 transit statistics: http://www.arctic-lio.com/docs/nsr/transits/Transits_in_2015.pdf

    One interesting weather event:
    [​IMG]
    Source: Arctic heat wave; sea ice at record February low | Updraft | Minnesota Public Radio News

    Bob Wilson
     
    #17 bwilson4web, Mar 8, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 8, 2016
  18. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Heres the image you deleted Bob and Fuzzy .Arctic sea ice 30% 2016 You should be ashamed. arctic216.png
     
  19. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Mojo lashes out yet again:
    We didn't delete it. Your own source, http ://ocean.dmi.dk/, discontinued and deleted it, replacing it with this: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current.png

    You should be ashamed of your mis-attribution and misplaced blame.

    Look in a mirror:
     
    #19 fuzzy1, Mar 9, 2016
    Last edited: Mar 9, 2016
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Kind of sad but not unexpected.

    In 1975, my company won a big contract and we did the work. Based on our success, we expanded and hired new help. But the available, qualified employees were ... the ones who lost their jobs working for the competition. Ok, maybe a reset and chance to learn but that was not the case.

    These 'new' employees decided their earlier failure was because they didn't apply their previous heuristics hard enough. Sure enough, they did it again and I left.

    So @mojo lives in an alternate universe, divorced from facts and data. But it really doesn't matter.

    Sometimes there is nothing we can do but wall them off. @mojo is already on my 'ignore user' list and to avoid his teasing, it is the right answer. Like any sociopath, @mojo lives to abuse others. Protect yourself and wall him off.

    Bob Wilson
     
    fuzzy1 likes this.