Polar Ice For 2016

I'm using: Princeton University - Gravity data show that Antarctic ice sheet is melting increasingly faster

During the past decade, Antarctica's massive ice sheet lost twice the amount of ice in its western portion compared with what it accumulated in the east, according to Princeton University researchers who came to one overall conclusion — the southern continent's ice cap is melting ever faster.

The researchers "weighed" Antarctica's ice sheet using gravitational satellite data and found that from 2003 to 2014, the ice sheet lost 92 billion tons of ice per year, the researchers report in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. If stacked on the island of Manhattan, that amount of ice would be more than a mile high — more than five times the height of the Empire State Building.

The vast majority of that loss was from West Antarctica, which is the smaller of the continent's two main regions and abuts the Antarctic Peninsula that winds up toward South America. Since 2008, ice loss from West Antarctica's unstable glaciers doubled from an average annual loss of 121 billion tons of ice to twice that by 2014, the researchers found. The ice sheet on East Antarctica, the continent's much larger and overall more stable region, thickened during that same time, but only accumulated half the amount of ice lost from the west, the researchers reported.​

There was a recent call from a Goddard climate scientist for another ICESAT mission to measure surface height but some of his claims didn't quite read right. I think we have a thread that mentioned it in the past year.

One set of climate modelers report that during global warming, there can be higher accumulations on Antarctica because the increased humidity leads to more snowfall. That appears to be happening in East Antarctica but the next sum of East and West Antarctica appears to be a loss . . . according to Grace.

I too have noticed a 'political' bias that seems to claim folks are not looking at Antarctica. Sad to say, when we do, it fits some of the models and is suffering an accelerating loss.

Bob Wilson

 

Source: 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Wintertime Extent Hits Another Record Low | NASA

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached a record low wintertime maximum extent for the second year in a row, according to scientists at the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and NASA.

Every year, the cap of frozen seawater floating on top of the Arctic Ocean and its neighboring seas melts during the spring and summer and grows back in the fall and winter months, reaching its maximum yearly extent between February and April. On March 24, Arctic sea ice extent peaked at 5.607 million square miles (14.52 million square kilometers), a new record low winter maximum extent in the satellite record that started in 1979. It is slightly smaller than the previous record low maximum extent of 5.612 million square miles (14.54 million square kilometers) that occurred last year. The 13 smallest maximum extents on the satellite record have happened in the last 13 years.

The new record low follows record high temperatures in December, January and February around the globe and in the Arctic. The atmospheric warmth probably contributed to this lowest maximum extent, with air temperatures up to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above average at the edges of the ice pack where sea ice is thin, said Walt Meier, a sea ice scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

The wind patterns in the Arctic during January and February were also unfavorable to ice growth because they brought warm air from the south and prevented expansion of the ice cover. But ultimately, what will likely play a bigger role in the future trend of Arctic maximum extents is warming ocean waters, Meier said.
. . . ​

Perhaps I should have bought a better air conditioner in October instead of the high-efficiency heater ... NOT!

Bob Wilson

 

Our local weather reports are pretty good about showing cold air masses leading to storms and late season snows. But they magically show these cold air masses coming from the USA-Canadian boarder when in reality they come from the polar areas.

So it has been relatively cool this Spring in North Alabama but every time I think about getting a sweater, I know ice did not freeze in the Arctic. The melt is on and starting at near record lows suggesting a long, open sailing window this year.

As for Antarctica, the shores are now ice bound as they have been pretty much for every year. There is speculation about hydro-fracturing, the expansion of water freezing, might accelerate glacier and ice sheet break-ups. If so, we are probably leaving that window now that the ice wraps Antarctica.

Bob Wilson

 

Source: Greenland sees record-smashing early ice sheet melt | Environment | The Guardian

Almost 12% of Greenland’s ice sheet was melting on Monday, according to data crunched by the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI).

It beat, by almost a month, the previous record for a melt of more than 10%, on 5 May 2010.

“We had to check that our models were still working properly,” Peter Langen, climate scientist at DMI, told blog Polar Portal.

Temperature readings on the ice were in line with the numbers, however, exceeding 10C in some places.

Even a weather station 1,840 metres above sea level recorded a maximum of 3.1C, which data analysts said would be warm for July, let alone April.​

That explains the cool Spring we've had in Alabama. Our warm weather went North.

Source: NOAA Arctic Theme Page - A Comprehensive Arctic Resource

NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images.

Spurious data from one of the satellite channels which provides inputs to the sea ice retreival algorithms is resulting in erroneous estimates of sea ice concentration and extent. The problem was initially seen in data for April 5 and all data since then are unreliable, so the NSIDC has chosen to remove all of April from NSIDC’s archive.

Transitioning to a different satellite will require a careful calibration, and NSIDC has no firm timeline on when it will be able to resume providing the sea ice time series.
​

Bob Wilson

 

Yes but it is worse (or better depending upon your point of view of the NorthWest passage.)

The sea ice between Baffin and Greenland is already thin and showing evidence of gaps. The southwest coastal area is impacted by this early warming. Understand we're talking over 30 days early so there is still a chance of a refreeze but growing thick ice is very unlikely.

The other interesting area is Bering Sea and North coast of Alaska. The EU (German) sats are showing an earlier break-up than last year. This is bad news for the native people as the marine mammals are going to be further away from shore.

The Northeast passage is starting way advanced in the West and the Bering Sea area is already weak. However the area between looks pretty solid . . . so far.

Bob Wilson

 

Hummmm, let me think about it:

• Tidal Ice - this would cover the ice I'm interested in
• Ice Over Tidal Waters - a more verbose version
• Salt Water Ice - a little more expansive but since very little salt water is not tidal . . . if the Great Salt Lake, Dead Sea, or Saulton (sp?) Sea freeze over
• Tidal And Adjacent Land Ice - this works and includes Greenland
• 75N and 75S Ice - I need to double check but I'm pretty sure this is close enough

Bob Wilson

 

The Arctic melt season is looking 'strange' this year. We're seen open water patches way too early:

• Bering Sea
• Alaska-Canadian Arctic shore
• Western edge of Hudson Bay
• Baffin Island-Greenland breakup
• Western side of NorthEast Passage hugely open

Bad news for polar bears.

Bob Wilson

 

Source: Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag

NSIDC has suspended daily sea ice extent updates until further notice, due to issues with the satellite data used to produce these images. The vertically polarized 37 GHz channel (37V) of the Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSMIS) on the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F-17 satellite that provides passive microwave brightness temperatures is providing spurious data. The 37V channel is one of the inputs to the sea ice retrieval algorithms, so this is resulting in erroneous estimates of sea ice concentration and extent. The problem was initially seen in data for April 5 and all data since then are unreliable, so we have chosen to remove all of April from NSIDC’s archive.

It is unknown at this time if or when the problem with F-17 can be fixed. In the event that the sensor problem has not been resolved, NSIDC is working to transition to another satellite in the DMSP series. Transitioning to a different satellite will require a careful calibration against the F-17 data to ensure consistency over the long-term time series. While this transition is of high priority, NSIDC has no firm timeline on when it will be able to resume providing the sea ice time series. For background information on the challenges of using data in near-real-time, see the ASINA FAQ, “Do your data undergo quality control?”​

The reason I mention this is the initial arctic sea ice maps show more Arctic sea ice coverage than the European and Russian maps. I have no doubt climate deniers will try to make claims about this knowing full well the data is suspect and two other sources show agreement.

Source: Arctic sea ice set for record summer low | Environment | DW.COM | 21.04.2016





Bob Wilson

 

Well I missed this one: China's new Arctic shipping route, thanks to global warming - CSMonitor.com

China's Maritime Safety Administration this month released a 356-page guide in Chinese offering detailed route guidance from the northern coast of North America to the northern Pacific, the China Daily said.​

Bob Wilson

 

Always interesting to see applied science: Have scientists found the cause of Greenland's ice melt? - CSMonitor.com

A new study published in Nature Communications focuses on the effects that rising temperatures and changing albedo have had on Greenland. The researchers concluded that, among other possible causes such as tropical weather and latent heat, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification could be the cause behind melting ice.

Arctic amplification explains the perpetuation of melting ice in the poles: As the Earth has heated up and melted ice, darker spots in the ocean that are uncovered by the loss have absorbed more solar radiation, further warming the sea and maintaining the cycle. The warmer waters could also balance more evenly with waters farther south, impacting the speed, intensity, and consistency of the jet stream, which in turn could bring hotter air farther north.​

Source paper: Arctic cut-off high drives the poleward shift of a new Greenland melting record : Nature Communications : Nature Publishing Group

Large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet through its impact on radiative budget, runoff and accumulation. Here, using reanalysis data and the outputs of a regional climate model, we show that the persistence of an exceptional atmospheric ridge, centred over the Arctic Ocean, was responsible for a poleward shift of runoff, albedo and surface temperature records over the Greenland during the summer of 2015. New records of monthly mean zonal winds at 500hPa and of the maximum latitude of ridge peaks of the 5,700±50m isohypse over the Arctic were associated with the formation and persistency of a cutoff high. The unprecedented (1948–2015) and sustained atmospheric conditions promoted enhanced runoff, increased the surface temperatures and decreased the albedo in northern Greenland, while inhibiting melting in the south, where new melting records were set over the past decade.​

Bob Wilson