Prime destined to be doa?

Some certainly aren't.
However, many are.

When asking about EVs I've been told...
The quick charge port allows you to charge 80% in 20 minutes on your standard household outlet.
The range [of a PHEV] is only 20 miles.
You don't want one of those, let me show you a...

While this is not isolated to a single manufacturer, I have had a higher ratio of ignorance from Ford and GM dealers.
Oddly enough, other than Tesla, the most knowledgable have also been GM dealers.

EVs take more time to explain, even the Prime will take more time than a lift back Prius.
And since sales reps are on commission, they are more interested in making the quick sale so they can get their numbers up.

Manufacturers training dealers will have a large impact on the success of EV sales.
Given Toyota's hesitancy to promote EVs, I don't have high hopes they will put much effort into this.

 

Let's discuss who the "average consumer" is.

I would suspect pretty much everyone assumes the same thing, a person looking to purchase a Toyota car... like Camry or Corolla.

We keep ignoring the truck market, the pickups and SUVs. Do you really think Toyota will never do anything to attempt to draw those who went from a car to a truck back to a car? Saying they will "never capture" is a bit of a stretch. Why did they switch to a truck in the first place. With Prius Prime, there's a chance of coming back. It's a vehicle that doesn't represent what they tried to get a way from years ago.

Think about it. Offering something completely unique has potential. These are customers who would be paying more for their new vehicle purchase anyway. Prime provides a means to switch back to a more efficient means of transport. It's also a heck of an effective way to lower impact to the environment, without requiring a paradigm shift.

Addressing the fleet as a whole can't just be with the expectation of people purchase a plug-in version of the vehicle they currently drive. The hope is it will be a relatively easy jump from Camry or Corolla, but how do you get people to take the bigger step away from the big guzzlers?

Ironically, the reason for being hesitant to promote was due to Prime.

Why promote EV when you are busy developing a PHEV with the hope that will stir mainstream consumer interest?

 

many L2 evse's can plug into a 240v receptacle nowadays. Phil (member engineer on PC) has modified 100's & 100's of our portable evse's so that you can operate off 120v - 208v or 240v.
No, not everyone has a garage, nor is everyone's garage wired with electricity, but that in itself still allows for many if not most to remedy charging.
.

 

what's unique about prime? just another me too product. do you really believe someone going into a dealership looking for another truck or suv is going to be interested in a prime? not at 2 bucks a gallon.
no offense john, but your pie in the sky argument makes no sense to me. i'm only basing my thoughts on friends, family and the current market though. paradigm shift is right. without it, prime is going no where.
'why did they switch to a truck in the first place?' please tell me, i have no idea. they sure sell a lot of them though. what was it they were trying to get away from a few years ago?

 

People . . . . livin' in the moment ....

.

 

Economics, Enticement, and Regulations (e.g. CAFE/pollution standards). Getting folks to move to PHEVs & EVs today requires appealing to a proactive customer base. Getting folks to move to PHEVs and EVs in the coming decades requires supplying a reactive customer base.

Gas prices are going to go up. CAFE standards are going to be more demanding. EV performance and costs are going to come down while ICE vehicles are pretty much leveled out. It is not that hard to connect the dots. Large scale EV and PHEV ownership and operation is mostly held back by economics and availability now but will transition to being driven by economics and held back by culture and habits. Economics wins every time.

 

Who is ignoring the truck market?
Tesla has had far more people converting from trucks and SUVs than the Prime ever will.
And don't forget performance vehicles. The Volt has had more than its share of BMW 3 series converts, while Tesla has taken over the large luxury sedan market.

If you want to make large gains in fleet efficiency, I agree converting Truck, and Performance class vehicles is the easiest way to do it.
Plugins are already doing this in terms of performance vehicles.

Do you honestly expect truck/SUV drivers to convert to the Prime??

 

The kind of person who buys a truck but only needs the capability of a Prime is the very last kind of person I'd expect to be interested in the Prime. It's a Prius, the car that is by far the most vilified among pickup buyers, after all. Think of "Prius repellent" bumper stickers.

And, people who actually need a pickup can't use the Prime.

Now, SUV/crossover buyers are another story - many of them dropped down to Priuses and such when gas got expensive, but they never wanted that, they wanted their SUV, and the space and height that it gave them. That's why they left the Prius for crossovers when fuel got cheap again - they could finally have what they wanted, especially with the packaging and efficiency improvements in modern crossovers. They may drop back to something more efficient though in the case of another fuel crisis.

 

absolutely. that's why i said 5-10 years. but who knows, many were saying the same thing 5-10 years ago. predictions come and go, we're all at the mercy of the middle east.

 

And what percentage of that are single people, recently married, and couples with grown kids that moved out? They all might consider cars with 4 seats, but those models don't generally get the 'family' moniker. Then there is a fair chance the single and even recently married don't have the means to charge at home.

Don't confuse investing in expansion with lack of profits.

Between Consumer Reports and the internet sites, many potential car buyers are doing some level of research these days. Then some still do their shopping at the dealers, but they don't limit themselves to one brand. The Volt did make GM money by getting non-GM people into a Chevy dealership and getting them to buy Cruzes.

Then there are brand loyal people, but by the level of hybrid sales, they likely aren't hybrid shoppers. The salesperson has to coax the majority into a hybrid before they can into a PHEV. Which makes what I am about to say so hard, I think bisco is right, part of the reason for the four seats in the Prime is to make it different from the Prius. So it doesn't canabalize sales of the more profitable hybrid.

Will the dealer explain that they should check that the planned outlet for use is a dedicated one, and that some homes may even need some electrical work to make charging off a standard outlet safe?

Then there is the fact that the Volt is not the only PHEV competition. The C-max Energi has about the same amount of range, cargo space, and charge time as the Prime, while retaining the fifth seat. The Sonata PHEV takes longer to charge, but has longer range and is a larger, roomier car. These are PHEVs available now.

Really, not being able to fully charge a PHEV equals screwed. These cars still can go places burning gas. We aren't talking BEVs.

As long as the dealership keeps the Prime charged.

So, people looking for HOV stickers?

As someone with grown kids, you are by some accounts.

An issue with the federal tax credit, and something Toyota is likely planning on taking advantage of, is that it awards the companies that sit back and wait the same or more as those that spent the resources to get the ball rolling.

Shame Toyota didn't try to tap into more of that market with the PiP.

People switched to SUVs because they were 'cooler' than a wagon or minivan for hauling the family around. If those using a large, FSP one aren't looking to downsize to begin with, the won't look at the Prius, much less the Prime.

 

Your perspective of absolutes continues to make discussion challenging. I'll give it a try though.

Yes, I expect *SOME* will.

It's human nature to seek out something different eventually. Financial, Family, and Work circumstances change over time. Having something new to choose from is what Toyota will be offering.

Don't forget, not everyone has truck/luxury money to use indefinitely. We've already heard Prime being referred to as the "common man's Tesla". Think about how Toyota will adapt packages based upon how buyer preference patterns emerge.

Huh? Some of us have been saying that right from the very start.

This is basic accounting, marketing, and economics.

I was rather surprised how big of an ado the 4 seats became.

 

WE have?
Perhaps you heard it in a dream, I certainly haven't.

Although it is nice that someone is holding up Tesla as something to strive for.

"Some" was inferred, even though you didn't say it.
What I am saying is the one or two people, statistically, is insignificant and I don't expect those numbers to grow over time.
The Prime is certainly not a replacement for a Truck or SUV.
Unless...does it ride higher than the lift back?

One of the things we liked about our Prii was that they rode a little higher. Of course, this was gen 2, I am not sure if they still do.
I see more Truck/SUV owners switching to a Liftback than the Prime. And I don't see many of those.

 

Amen, brother! One person told me he liked being above the other cars so that he could see traffic problems sooner. Some think they are safer: bigger is better. Some need the hauling capability (at least that is what they say). For some, it is a public representation of their virility. It's a manifestation of the lack of concern many have for the environment. Some need a big truck but most do not.

 

It is also worth noting that the market that actually requires a truck may be receptive to a Prime or a Liftback as a second car. It's really only the truck market that DOESN'T require a truck that won't buy one.

As an example, my father has a Silverado 2500, but it's mainly used for towing a livestock trailer and carrying a truck bed camper when going to livestock shows, and hauling large quantities of livestock feed. For smaller duties, and daily driving, he uses an older Matrix, and also has access to a 2015 Prius (it's not his though, hence the Matrix).

 

I agree I got a minivan and Prius...I think that's ideal combo and we don't put too many miles on the van.

I don't think Prime will sell too many but enough for what Toyota wants to get out of it. Also Canada will buy some due to tax credits, it gives a Volt/Fusion competitor for those who want it, whereas incentives and mandates in certain areas drive the majority of sales

 

Since we know other variants will come about as a result over time, how many sales should we expect for Prime itself?

30,000 annual seems reasonable for this market.

 

what was the height of pip sales? sure seems like stickers, tax credits and price are going to be awfully important.
maybe we should forecast the lower 49 for funsies.

 

Really?
After all the people and the press stressing it as a con for the Volt to the point GM put in a plus one seat on the second generation.
And the comments from PiP owners that they liked not giving up the utility and fifth seat of the Prius.
You are surprised?
Were you part of Toyota's focus group?

 

Regarding timelines for converting truck drivers to more efficient vehicles; that will largely happen as that generation dies. Unfortunately, people are not very open to new ways of thinking or behaving. The people that have bumper stickers saying "Prius repellent" aren't likely to ever change their perspective.

The only way I can see people converting sooner than them being replaced by a new generation is if autonomous driving arrives first. It's probably difficult to feel like a BA when being chauffeured by a vehicle that obeys all traffic laws and drives exactly like all the surrounding cars.

About L2 charging in the home; that infrastructure will need to be built at some point anyhow, and it shouldn't cost too much since most people have their breaker in the garage in the first place. L2 charging isn't even needed for the Prime since it has such a low EV range, and gets great fuel economy when not using electricity.

I installed my own 50A 240v outlet for about $50 in parts. All I had to do is install the breaker, run the wire up from the panel, over the attic about 8ft, and then install the outlet in the ceiling. It might have taken 45 minutes.

I understand that reasoning. Driving efficiently (and safely) means you have to know what traffic is doing far ahead. If everyone drove the same size vehicle, this wouldn't be a problem because you can see through the back and front windows of the car ahead. When a truck pulls in front of me, I can no longer see through the vehicle because I'm too low. The only way to see in this case is to get a truck.

 

I thought this group here was better informed. Based on the comments, I discovered otherwise. Oh well. That's what on-going discussions are for.