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Polar Ice For 2016

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  2. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: 400 ppm Carbon Dioxide Exceeded At South Pole - Reporting Climate Science

    [​IMG]
    ... the annual rate of increase appears to be accelerating. The annual growth rate of atmosphericCO2 measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii jumped 3.05 ppm during 2015, the largest year-to-year increase in 56 years of monitoring. Part of last year’s jump was attributable to El Nino, the cyclical Pacific Ocean warming that produces extreme weather across the globe, causing terrestrial ecosystems to lose stored CO2 through wildfire, drought and heat waves.

    Last year was the fourth consecutive year that CO2 grew more than 2 ppm – which set another record. This year promises to be the fifth.

    “We know from abundant and solid evidence that the CO2 increase is caused entirely by human activities,” Tans said. “Since emissions from fossil fuel burning have been at a record high during the last several years, the rate of CO2 increase has also been at a record high. And we know some of it will remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years.”

    Source: Greenland Hits Record 75°F, Sets Melt Record As Globe Aims At Hottest Year | ThinkProgress

    Last Thursday, Greenland’s capital hit 75°F, which was hotter than New York City. This was the highest temperature ever recorded there in June — in a country covered with enough ice to raise sea levels more than 20 feet.

    It comes hot on the heels of the hottest May on record for the entire globe, according to NASA. As the map above shows, May temperature anomalies in parts of the Arctic and Antarctic were as high as 17°F (9.4°C) above the 1951-1980 average for the month.

    And this all follows the hottest April on record for the planet, which followed the hottest March on record, the hottest February on record, and the hottest January on record. NASA says there is a 99 percent chance this will be the hottest year on record — even though the current record-holder for hottest year, 2015, had blown out the previous record-holder, 2014.

    [​IMG]
    It will be interesting to watch the sea level.

    Bob Wilson
     
  3. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Forget the sea level. What happens with the major ocean currents will be of higher interest.
     
  4. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    "Cappelen, a senior climatologist at the DMI, told The Washington Post that the warm weather was brought on by winds from the east that set up between high pressure over northeast Greenland and low pressure south of Greenland. When winds come from the east over Nuuk, they blow downhill, which leads to an increase in temperature. This is the result of adiabatic warming, where air is compressed from low pressure (at the top of a mountain) to high pressure (at sea level). It’s the same kind of dry warmth that occurs as a result of Santa Ana winds in Southern California."

    Obviously this has nothing to do with CO2,a fact that Joe Romm intentionally neglected to convey.
    By the way in this great heat Greenland has more ice than average.

    " accumulatedsmb.png John
     
    #44 mojo, Jun 18, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2016
  5. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    The previous two graphs came from:
    Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Budget: DMI

    Which also says
    "Satellite observations over the last decade show that the ice sheet is not in balance. The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr."

    As I understand from other sources, current SLR is about 1 mm/yr from each: Greenland, Antarctica, and other grounded ice. Greenland would have to really kick it up a notch to make drama on our tidal gauges

    Just now, Wunderground says the summit station is -14 oC. Cold for us, but not so cold for them.
     
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  6. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    Here is the caption to the above graphs:

    "Top: The total daily contribution to the surface mass balance from the entire ice sheet (blue line, Gt/day). Bottom: The accumulated surface mass balance from September 1st to now (blue line, Gt) and the season 2011-12 (red) which had very high summer melt in Greenland. For comparison, the mean curve from the period 1990-2013 is shown (dark grey). The same calendar day in each of the 24 years (in the period 1990-2013) will have its own value. These differences from year to year are illustrated by the light grey band. For each calendar day, however, the lowest and highest values of the 24 years have been left out."

    Please note that Greenland's total ice balance is the sum of two items, SMB (surface mass balance, which includes sublimation and runoff losses) and D (discharge through calving). These graphs are the SMB component only, and do not include the D calving losses. As the source above states:

    "The calving loss is greater than the gain from surface mass balance, and Greenland is losing mass at about 200 Gt/yr."

    I.e., mojo's statement above that 'Greenland has more ice than average' is a misreading of his source page.
     
    #46 fuzzy1, Jun 19, 2016
    Last edited: Jun 19, 2016
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  8. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    GRACE satellite figures for Greenland's total ice mass have not yet been posted for this year. It normally takes several months to post-process the data, don't know why it is taking longer now. But as of the most recent update, Greenland's ice was way way low, by vastly more than any single year's accumulation:
    Total mass change: Polar Portal

    Surface albedo anomalies are being kept up to date. The ice surface is clearly darker that historic measures (right-hand chart):
    Surface conditions: Polar Portal
     
  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    For the entertainment of @mojo:
    With the recent heat in the North American area, I suspected the annual melt might have slowed. Compared to May, the simple chart suggested the June melt slowed up enough to reach last year's rate. So I clicked the second link which should give some climate deniers a thrill:
    [​IMG]
    Actually an instrument failure, switching to a second satellite takes a little time. But I instantly thought our climate denial friends might be claiming something like 'Arctic Ice Melting Has STOPPED' <GRINS>

    Bob Wilson
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    This open document promises to be an interesting read: Massive subsurface ice formed by refreezing of ice-shelf melt ponds : Nature Communications : Nature Publishing Group

    Surface melt ponds form intermittently on several Antarctic ice shelves. Although implicated in ice-shelf break up, the consequences of such ponding for ice formation and ice-shelf structure have not been evaluated. Here we report the discovery of a massive subsurface ice layer, at least 16 km across, several kilometres long and tens of metres deep, located in an area of intense melting and intermittent ponding on Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctica. We combine borehole optical televiewer logging and radar measurements with remote sensing and firn modelling to investigate the layer, found to be ~10 °C warmer and ~170 kg m−3 denser than anticipated in the absence of ponding and hitherto used in models of ice-shelf fracture and flow. Surface ponding and ice layers such as the one we report are likely to form on a wider range of Antarctic ice shelves in response to climatic warming in forthcoming decades.

    We've always assume the surface melt passed through cracks to the bottom of glaciers both lifting and lubricating their flow. But this is an interesting twist ... the surface melt freezing within a few meters of the surface.

    Although the shelf was snow-covered at the time of drilling, inspection of the wall of a 2-m deep pit revealed the presence of both numerous ice layers within the snowpack and an unusually thick ice layer at a depth of 2.0 m that prevented continued excavation. The borehole was logged to a depth of ~97 m by optical televiewer (OPTV)13, providing a geometrically accurate image of the complete borehole wall at a vertical and lateral resolution of ~1 mm. The resulting OPTV log (Fig. 2a) contrasts starkly with those retrieved from other accumulating ice-shelf and ice-sheet locations (for example, Fig. 2b), including the interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet14 and an East Antarctic ice shelf and ice rise15, 16. In each of these other cases, OPTV log luminosity decreases gradually with depth as surface snow metamorphoses through firn to dense ice over depths of several tens of metres. In contrast, our Cabinet Inlet OPTV log (Fig. 2a) shows a sharp contact between high-luminosity surface snow or firn and low-luminosity ice at a depth of only 2.9 m below the ice-shelf surface. This ice extends to the 97-m deep base of the log. ...

    The ice layering is new.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    This will be interesting.
    "Permanent irreversible change in the sea ice landscape of the Arctic seem inevitable. This will / is already having global economic political, social and environmental implications. A significant change in my lifetime.

    I see this possibility to circumnavigate the Arctic as one I wanted to take despite the risks associated with it in order to increase the worlds attention on the effects of Arctic climate change."

    Objectives - The Polar Ocean Challenge

    The Route - The Polar Ocean Challenge
     
  12. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Arctic tourism: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/10/travel/arctic-cruise-northwest-passage-greenpeace.html
    [​IMG]

    The Serenity plans to leave Anchorage Aug. 16, sail along the Alaskan coast, navigate the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, visit Greenland and then New England, before arriving in New York on Sept. 16.

    Although the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported that Arctic temperatures in May were four to five degrees above the three-decade average, the Northwest Passage still isn’t forecast to be completely free from summer sea ice that can be pushed around unpredictably by wind. Icebergs from melting glaciers are another concern, said Julienne Stroeve, a research scientist at the center, which is based in Boulder, Colo.

    Crystal said that it is taking extraordinary safety precautions.

    Because the Serenity’s 820-foot-long hull isn’t strengthened for ice, forward looking sonar, ice scanning radar and thermal imaging equipment are being installed. Two ice pilots have been hired, though only one is required.

    It will be escorted by the R.R.S. Ernest Shackleton, a 216-foot logistical ship carrying two six-seat helicopters for ice reconnaissance (and for sightseeing tours.) It will also have oil pollution containment equipment, a salvage diver and survival rations.
    Current posted plans: Crystal Serenity Itinerary, Crystal Serenity Itineraries and Sailing Dates on iCruise.com@

    Baring equipment or weather issues, it looks to be an interesting year.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    I predict that ice will be the most important concern.
     
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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  16. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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  17. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Someone please relay a challenge to Bob.I bet $100 that The Polar Ocean Challenge wont make their goal this year, because CO2 has no effect on arctic sea ice.Loser pays $100 donation to the Hillary presidential campaign.

     
  18. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    This one?

    Tracking - The Polar Ocean Challenge
     
  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    The Russian service makes this map available showing ice and winds:
    [​IMG]
    It looks like the winds are abating and opening up a channel for the sail boat:
    [​IMG]
    In another couple of days, they can probably sail to a channel they can navigate.

    Their log entry: A long tack north, and then tacked east again. There is No hurry - The Polar Ocean Challenge

    A long tack north, and then tacked east again. There is No hurry

    Frances GardShips logNo Comments


    0800 Tues 26th Day 7 N77 24 E064 33 Pressure 1004 Wind NE 20 knots cloud 8/8 full Genoa out, and one reef in main.

    Choppy sea, taking four hour tacks. These sea conditions make it hard to sleep, cook or relax. We are considering many elements all the time. We are due new Russian Ice charts today.

    We know the North west in pretty clear, but this year is a very unusual year in the north east passage. Normally the Laptev sea would be pretty open now as in previous years. It is not. This is also partly due to the wind blowing the pack ice down south and consolidating next to the land.

    So, we need to get through the straight and through the Laptev sea. So where do we wait until we can do this ? We have deliberately taken our time to get to this point, and used the wind as much as we can to conserve fuel. Now the weather has changed, the wind direction has also changed. From the calm turquoise seas, to choppy short seas, wet, windy and cold.

    So we took a long tack north, and then tacked east again. There is No hurry. We will slowly make our way east, and if we can find an island with no fast ice around, will look for a sheltered spot, until we get better ice conditions. The other options are to Heave to and wait, but this is a sailing Yacht, she needs to sail. And if we get a Southerly blow, it could change our chances very quickly to get around, so we need to be close to react.

    So, another day at the office.

    They are traveling in a sail boat so wind is important also because it shifts the ice around blocking and making channels.

    On the other side, the NorthWest passage, it looks much better for the cruise ship:
    [​IMG]
    The cruise ship will start in about two weeks from Alaska and depending upon how the winds blow, should have no problem. There are a few channels in Canadian islands that might use an ice breaker today. But the melt is on and continues for at least two months:
    [​IMG]
    The refreeze typically doesn't start until the end of September.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #59 bwilson4web, Jul 27, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2016
  20. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Polar Ocean Challenge wont make their goal this year@57. May or may not. There is plenty of ice at sea, and winds will affect that as well as this boat's progress.

    "CO2 has no effect on arctic sea ice" If only the word 'instantaneous' were nested in there somewhere. As it is, excludes/ignores long time constants associated with water.

    There is so much water
    . Missing such effects is (I believe) the reason why global climate models remain unsatisfying. Don't be hitching your wagon (boat) to that!

    My betting money will not be allocated to this year's Arctic wind patterns.Assert instead that some decade will have lower surface-instrumental T than now. We'll talk.
     
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