Warm nights

So here we have a great example of comfirmation bias.

Prediction Fossil burn -> Hotter nights
Prediction Fossil burn -> more extreme weather

We then look for data that supports the hypothesis while not bothering to look at other data.

Warmer nights -> less extreme cold weather -> less deaths from cold. So we go looking for india heat wave that goes against the bulk of the data. But if we dig ...

In the US deaths from heat causes were way down bellow average in 2015, while up in India. In the US deaths from flooding were way up, but down in india. The monsoons did not cool down india as normal, but a bad (low) monsoon season is associated with lower deaths from flooding. Only one of the indian states experienced the much higher death toll.

Conclusion too little data, but certainly the data supports the null hypothesis -> deaths were results of different rain fall closely associated with ocean oscilations not directly tied to ghg.

If you can tie ENSO and other ocean phanomina with ghg, then that would be the link. Most data does not support a direct relationship leading to increase deaths sometimes called extreme weather.

Nights are definitely getting warmer and this is not uniform accross the planet. It is mainly in cold places, where warmer nights are not considered extreme weather but work to counter it.

 

Well if you read from a politically charged manual called denial 101, one of your tools is to push for more confirmation bias.

See here. Constructive criticism of a bad scientific technique drops me into. Dum de dum denial. Now I appologize if you weren't trying to tie deaths from the indian heat wave to climate with some hand waving, but we have scientific ways to decide if it can be attributed to ghg versus ocean oscilations. I expect one to pop up from NOAA in the not too distant future. This would take the shape of would the weather be as extreme if ghg levels were lower. Definitely those with a vested interest in calling scientific inquiry denial, will reject such studies. Trenberth recently reversed his totally unscientific huricane's more frequent and more extreme under more ghg under mountains of evidence versus his gut.

Well yes one technique to be skeptical of extreme predictions is to use science. I won't deny that. But calling a scientific method to attribute the effect denial is just plain wrong. Yes I know politically lots more people will follow you if you call science names. Hell look at all the creationists out there. But why not follow the science?

So did the climate models predict the low level of monsoons and heat wave in india? No of course not. This is after the fact attribution based on ... confirmation bias. Why not look at the US too, or Russia? Because we did not see the same things, and the data does not support. Remember global climate change is global.

 

I wonder what dark rooftops and great swaths of asphalt paving are doing. Also, I get annoyed, not quite sure why, walking by folks sitting buttoned up in their parked cars, engines running, AC fans incessantly cycling.

 

Here's a major reason for decreased deaths in the U.S. attributed to heat:



The vast lower classes in India aren't nearly as fortunate. Flooding is yet much more difficult to engineer against.

 

I was talking about 2011 versus 2015, when the indian spike of deaths occurred, I don't think air conditioning installed between 2011 and 2015 is reasponsible for lower deaths in US.

Study ranks US cities based on the urban heat island effect on temperatures
urban heat island effect is great in certain cities like Miami, but is far more dangerous in India
How urban heat islands are making India hotter | John Vidal and Samarth Pathak | Global development | The Guardian

 

No implied specific dates here. The graph was posted to show association with diminished US heat related deaths/morbidity. Regardless, the progressively growing installed air conditioning base has helped even in that short period of time. This is particularly true in the Western states such as California where we have seen more of the higher temperature spectrum in global variance in the last few years. In my occupation, I see this in real time, and yes, it's real.

Agree, have to look at many systems and variables. There are local happenings and global happenings and some of these may or may not be related.

 

i think we had our longest streak of a/c in the 12 years we've been in this house. most nights above 70 and a drought on top of it all. finally broke today, 75 degrees and half inch of rain last night. but heat coming back in a day or two.