1. Attachments are working again! Check out this thread for more details and to report any other bugs.

Polar Ice For 2016

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    From the most recent log:

    N76 31, E098 32 Pressure 1004 wind 15/20k NW water temp 3.5 outside temp 2 8/8 foggy

    Well, two good bits of news today. One is our permit came through from Vladivostock to be able to sail directly to Point Barrow. This is good news for a lot of reasons. One of them its the shortest direct route.

    Also, after talking to Sergai, after breakfast, he thought we should get a day or two of southerly winds. so if we are lucky, it could move the ice from the land, and let us sneak through. But we need to get closer to take advantage if it does happen.

    The track suggests tacking and/or looking for a break.

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2012
    2,447
    1,695
    0
    Location:
    Rocklin, CA
    Vehicle:
    Other Electric Vehicle
    Model:
    ----USA----
    They're hugging the coast, but passing through the northernmost point so far.

    Bob, if you didn't have a certain person on ignore, you probably could have made some easy money or gotten him to agree to donate to an organization of you choice!
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    I did see they posted photos of the polar bear and cubs. It is much more interesting to share in the adventure.

    Bob Wilson
     
  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2009
    17,105
    10,039
    90
    Location:
    Western Washington
    Vehicle:
    Other Hybrid
    Model:
    N/A
    If I were betting, I'd have required the amount in question to be put into escrow ahead of the event. Otherwise, I'd have no confidence in it ever being paid.
     
  5. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Quick bump: An interesting effort to circumnavigate the Arctic: Tracking - The Polar Ocean Challenge

    A mixed bag of emotions today. sailing in strong winds through the night up the coast. Its amazing that just 10 days ago this very same area was solid ice. It then went from open ocean to sporadic ice of 3/10ths With careful helming, you could get through it or around it. Whilst Nikolai’s birthday preparations were being made, we slowly crept north, various old Russian markers on the land could be seen through the dull sky, luckily we had no fog, even though the water temp was now near 1 degree, with the outside temp not much higher. The big difference was there was no wind, so it actually felt balmy. Gradually, the cape came into view, with a myriad of huts and antennas, this is still a Polar station, but also marks the most Northern spot of land of mainland Europe and Asia. At this point, every man and his dog turned up, firstly a convoy going East, another going West. A freighter resupplying the Polar station, and our old hydrographic friends from our blue lagoon days.

    No "reality" show can match this.

    Bob Wilson
     
  6. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    The word for today, "stamukha":

    UTC 11:00 SHPSLOG. Which is by the way at the moment is 18:00 local time.

    A stamukha is an iceberg that is touching the bottom.

    We had to turn round from the ice by the coast last night and find somewhere safe to moor/anchor. There were strong winds so we needed to find somewhere else to sit them out, and the answer was a stamukha.

    We knew it might drift, and it did, so when it had drifted into a more dangerous situation, Ben (who was on anchor watch) woke Nikolay and we’ve moved off it to go and have a look at the ice situation just up ahead again

    Source: Stamukha - The Polar Ocean Challenge

    [​IMG]

    A quick peek at the weather and there is a low pressure system in the area with +20 k winds moving the ice away from shore. They have a reasonable chance of breaking out in a day or so. They took a chance and it appears to be paying off.

    Bob Wilson
     
  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    So last year, I was following Yong Sheng which made the Arctic crossing in 2015. This year it was wandering around SE Asia and then nothing until it showed up in Glasgow Scotland. So Mr. Google found: Spotted: Yong Sheng Starts 3rd Arctic Run | World Maritime News

    MV Yong Sheng, an ice class ship owned by COSCO Shipping’s arm COSCOL, started on July 16 its third voyage via the Arctic Northeast Route which will take the vessel from China’s Port of Tianjin to the UK.

    [​IMG]

    Bob Wilson
     
    #87 bwilson4web, Aug 16, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2016
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
  9. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    4,519
    390
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    Bull S!!T Bob.
    Wind caused the sea ice to be blown away from the coast.There is little sea ice loss this year ,and it has nothing to due with global warming .
    Its going to get a lot harder for you to continue to lie in the future by the way,as the AMO has turned cold.

    NODC NorthAtlanticOceanicHeatContent0-700mSince1979 With37monthRunningAverage.gif
     
  10. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    4,519
    390
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    duplicate
     
    tochatihu likes this.
  11. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    8,995
    3,507
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    I have the same darn problem with duplicates. Nothing happens so I 'post reply' again and bam! two of them. I find it embarrassing.
     
  12. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2012
    2,447
    1,695
    0
    Location:
    Rocklin, CA
    Vehicle:
    Other Electric Vehicle
    Model:
    ----USA----
    Bob, not fair to keep him on your ignore list but taunt him with "@" tags. You don't get to see the replies!

    It's a well known fact that this is the first time in sea faring human history that winds are moving sea ice to allow passage:whistle:
     
  13. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    What? What? I'm not allowed to poke him with the same care and consideration he has for reality and the truth? What do you think, @mojo?

    Kinda a sucks to get what you so readily hand out, don't you think? ... Opps, you don't think, do you. <grins>

    What is fascinating is this sailing ship has a chance to meet the cruise ship on the NorthWest passage. <GRINS>

    The Chinese ship is working a commercial schedule and won't meet up except they probably passed while transiting the NorthEast passage.

    Indeed, man-made global warming from CO{2} has opened the Arctic to navigation during the melt season. A season that seems to be growing longer and more intense. Have a 'snow cone' @mojo.

    Bob Wilson
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Northabout is ~1,500 km from the Bering Sea and the end of the Northeast passage. The Crystal Serenity is working its way up the Alaska coast. The Northwest passage is still clear.

    Bob Wilson
     
    iplug likes this.
  15. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    4,519
    390
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

    Joined:
    Nov 25, 2005
    27,123
    15,389
    0
    Location:
    Huntsville AL
    Vehicle:
    2018 Tesla Model 3
    Model:
    Prime Plus
    Crystal Serenity passed Barrow about three hours ago. Barrow is the next port for Northabout, still in the Siberian Sea. Looks like both are well on the way and the Arctic freeze is about 3-4 weeks away. Northabout may have to winter over but we'll see.

    Source: Arctic luxury liner cruises into controversy and opportunity - CSMonitor.com

    It has been noticed. <GRINS>

    The only BS in the story is about the diesel burned by the ship. Total nonsense compared to the hot air released by the skeptics.

    FYI, just read this crew report from the Northabout: Laughing with delight, we pinch ourselves to be sure our eyes do not deceive us. - The Polar Ocean Challenge
    [​IMG]

    Along with the picture, awesome!

    Bob Wilson
     
    #96 bwilson4web, Aug 24, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2016
  17. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    19,665
    8,067
    54
    Location:
    Montana & Nashville, TN
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    Bob - we could even see the aurora from northern Montana during some years. Way cool. Equally cool (in a terrifying sorta way) are these before & after shots of Alaskan glaciers;

    uploadfromtaptalk1472050402425.jpg

    There are loads of these kinds of shots - farther south too, of glacier national park - shots typically taken ~100yrs apart. But these 2 attached shots were taken only 75 years apart - the 2 black & white 'before' ones were taken in 1941;

    uploadfromtaptalk1472050794959.jpg

    I think it was Betty Davis who once said, "fasten your seat belts ... we're in for a bumpy ride"

    .
     
    bwilson4web likes this.
  18. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

    Joined:
    Sep 28, 2006
    4,519
    390
    0
    Location:
    San Francisco
    Vehicle:
    2012 Prius v wagon
    Model:
    Three
    Chicago used to be underneath a mile thick glacier 15,000 years ago.It melted but will someday soon return to that state. It had nothing to do with CO2 or man.We have been in an interglacial warm period for the past 15,000 years .Glaciers have been melting for most of that entire period including to the present.
     
  19. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

    Joined:
    Apr 10, 2004
    8,995
    3,507
    0
    Location:
    Kunming Yunnan China
    Vehicle:
    2001 Prius
    Glacial cycles are amazing, no doubt about it. (Site of) Chicago probably was like that 25,000 years ago, but by 15,000 the retreat was well underway and your mental image should be of under a deep lake instead.

    A most interesting and almost certainly beneficial effect of anthropogenic ~doubling of CO2 will be the prevention of next glacial age. It is a shame really, that some people must ignore that benefit. To do otherwise would be to understand the leverage role of CO2 on climate.

    All others might enjoy reading

    Critical insolation–CO2 relation for diagnosing past and future glacial inception
    A. Ganopolski, R. Winkelmann & H. J. Schellnhuber (2016)
    Nature 529, 200–203.
    doi:10.1038/nature16494
     
  20. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

    Joined:
    Jun 23, 2005
    19,665
    8,067
    54
    Location:
    Montana & Nashville, TN
    Vehicle:
    2004 Prius
    Model:
    IV
    no doubt - Even so - perhaps my thought was poorly articulated. For example , if one considers the RATE at which glaciers have receded (MILES, in many instances) over the past 75 years alone, if the current (75yr) melt rate were consistent during even the past 5,000 years, then glaciers (via simple math ) would necessarily be almost absent in modern times, up to the Arctic Circle. If that were not true - the alternative conclusion would be that the rate has significantly increased over the past 100 years. If so - that would likely be because ...... what.
    Pick your poison, that is, unless there's an alternate (increased melt rate) conclusion that's missing. What is it .... Martian intervention? Or? unknown? Possibly mankind related?
    ;)
    .