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Featured Justify a hybrid

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Aug 26, 2016.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    So once again, the skeptics speak:

    Source: It’s Getting Harder to Justify a Hybrid | TheDetroitBureau.com

    If you’re picking a new car, truck or crossover based on the bottom line, you may be in for a surprise, according to a new study. While hybrids tend to deliver better mileage than comparable gasoline-powered vehicles, you may actually wind up spending more in the long run.

    Less than one out of four of the 29 hybrids covered by consulting firm Vincentrie’s U.S. Hybrid Ownership study actually had lower costs than comparable gas-powered models. Lower pump prices are certainly a factor, but other issues play into the equation – notably including the fact that the fuel efficiency of non-hybrid vehicles has been fast on the rise.

    We've seen this before and once again:
    Hybrid Analysis 2016


    In most cases studied, the hybrid vehicle had a higher market price than its closest all-gasoline-powered alternative, which causes several cost factors to increase including depreciation, finance, opportunity costs and fees and taxes. The analysis shows that in approximately one quarter of the cases, fuel cost savings associated with hybrid vehicles are able to offset their price premium. However, hybrids are becoming less cost-effective as they lose their competitive edge due to the improved fuel economy of gas-powered combustion engines and falling fuel prices. Ultimately, it’s important for consumers to look at their needs and the specific models available to them because depending on the negotiated price, driving patterns and intended length of ownership, a hybrid can still be a great value.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. KennyGS

    KennyGS Senior Member

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    They still generate less pollution.
     
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  3. jdenenberg

    jdenenberg EE Professor

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    They compare the 2016 Prius 2 (Mid-size) to a Corolla (compact with few comparable features)! I would not even consider a Corola, But recently bought a Prius 3 with TSS-P.

    JeffD
     
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  4. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    <sigh> i'm sure they hate imports, but wouldn't it be great if ford or gm came out and slapped them silly.
    one thing they missed, hybrids are cheap right now, and gassers are going for top dollar.
     
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  5. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    The article can't even get the name of the study group right. Vincentric works for auto makers, not consumers according to its web page.

    Yes. Of course, the spreadsheet I used when buying 5 years ago looks different when you plug in today's gas prices. Now will they stay in the $2 range over the life of the car...
     
  6. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    heck, i'm thinking of getting a bentley at these gas prices, probably cheaper than a hybrid.
     
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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Worse, they compared both a Level 2 Prius (not ECO) and the Prius v to the same Corolla. <AAAGGGGGHHHH!!!!!>

    As a general rule of thumb, such comparisons in the past have been terribly flawed. Too many 'cherry picked' Apples-to-Onions are found when the data is examined. The most common mistake is standard alloy wheels on the Prius and steel pieces of sh*t. We saw even worse examples with the old "Dust-to-Dust" report.

    I don't post about such flawed reports in admiration but rather as a 'vaccination' so when we run into relatives or co-workers who drag out these sorry excuses for research, we can quickly answer,
    • 'They used the same Toyota Corolla to compare to different Prius models, the bottom line hatchback, not the highest mileage one, and the Prius station wagon, the Prius v.'
    • 'The one that showed a Lexus CT 200h saved $8,700 over the gas version?'
    Last decade, these faux, comparison articles were pretty popular. But once you started loading the gasser with the options that are standard on the hybrid, the results often reversed. Sad to say, I have yet to figure out a 'magic bullet' to get fact based versions.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  8. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    ...it's hard to make a Hybrid pay out on fuel cost savings...and then we got 2 states ID and MI taxing hybrids extra, to add salt to the wound. Prius pays out due to reliability, practicality and cargo space. If fuel saving was all we got, the whole house of cards would have fallen down before it started...and no plug-ins to boot. Still haven't changed a brake pad at 150k+ miles and 10-yrs.
     
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  9. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    It is a complex problem because we all don't drive the same number of miles per year. In Huntsville, I'm running about 325-350 miles per week, 17-18k miles per year. I'm on the high-side of typical miles per year used in these flawed studies, 12-15k. For example, if someone is only driving say 7k miles per year, it doesn't matter what car is bought as your annual fuel savings are 'small change.'

    Thanks to the BMW i3-REx I've had to revisit how to calculate the direct fuel-electricity costs. We still have a 52 MPG, 2010 Prius, so how to compare the two. So I am leaning towards:

    Inputs:
    1. $/gallon
    2. $/kWh
    3. vehicle
    Output:
    1. $/10_miles - it seems to easily covert for both commuting and cross country metrics
    Fortunately, there is a full data file at: Download Fuel Economy Data

    This data does not include the purchase and depreciation numbers that "ViNCENTRiC" used. However, we may be able to get usable purchase and depreciation numbers from the Idaho National Labs data: INL

    So I'm thinking about designing an experiment, a model, that uses:
    • Idaho National Labs - depreciation and identification of vehicle model/year for study ... selecting
    • www.fueleconomy.gov - to find a matching vehicle by interior volume and cost $/10_miles
    • USA Energy Information Administration - three numbers, average and +/- 1 standard deviation, for fuel and electricity
    This would be an 'open source' as all of the data would be from USA government sources. It would be limited to the makes and models tested at INL but that would be a heck of a lot more open than anything else out there. Let me share an example using "place-holder" numbers:
    make model $1.50/gal $0.10/kwh $1.80/gal $0.20/kWh $2.25/gal $0.30kWh
    1 BMW i3-REx $0.35/10_mi $0.25/10_mi $0.40/10_mi $0.30/10_mi $0.60/10_mi $0.50/10_mi
    2 Chevy Volt $0.37/10_mi $0.27/10_mi $0.43/10_mi $0.34/10_mi $0.70/10_mi $0.60/10_mi
    3

    This is just some initial design ideas but it may be a static analysis doesn't work. The table becomes too complex. Instead, it may lead to a web form that you put in the numbers and the assumptions based upon closest matching metrics leads to a result. Sometimes a table can become too complex and a graph something only the author likes.

    Regardless, I don't like these comparison studies because they too easily fall into 'simplify the problem' traps, the back-of-the-envelope problem.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #9 bwilson4web, Aug 27, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2016
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  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    The Corolla bloated up on the last redesign; it now has more cabin space than the Prius. So a Prius v. Corolla comparison wouldn't be out of line for a car buyer today. Just got to remember to keep it like to like. Something that non-shoppers have trouble doing, whether it is hybrid to ICE, or gas to diesel.;)
     
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  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    My thinking is some sort of weighted average or possibly RMS:
    • 50% - internal volume
    • 30% - power
    • 20% - weight(?), seats(?)
    Due to mixed units (i.e., ft{3}, hp, lbs, seats), this is a case where converting to percentages can map the metrics into a common scale. Something to experiment with until a more sensible matching mechanism can be found. Nice problem to 'over think.'

    BTW, I won't try to keep them clustered by manufacture. I'd rather see the most closely matched vehicles and their cost/10_mile, the operational cost. Then we can play the capital vs operational cost game (which it is!)

    Bob Wilson
     
    #11 bwilson4web, Aug 27, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2016
  12. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    I hear ya- but sometime you need a nice practical pick up too;
    [​IMG]

    10mpg doin' a constant 75mph ~
    just sayin' . . . . best to get one of each.
    .
     
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  13. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    That's a 4-dr hardtop. It's technically not a pickup truck.

    [​IMG]

    You're thinking the Hummer H2 SUT lol. (I guess it's also technically not a pickup truck but it's closer)
     
  14. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    don't EVER intimate a 10 mpg urban assault vehicle lacks pickup function, just because the bed is only 3.5' long !

    .
     
  15. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    they come in quite handy when picking up multiple sheets of 3 1/2 x 4' plywood.
     
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  16. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    Freudian slip?
     
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  17. mikefocke

    mikefocke Prius v Three 2012, Avalon 2011

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    How do you compare a 4 doors with trunk sedan Corolla with a station wagon like the v?

    Answer, you don't.

    It matters not if you are buying on some combination of occupants, cargo utility, MPG, and cost if one of the factors is in the other guys favor if the just-gotta-have factor is in favor of the one you need and thus pick.

    I'd rather have a Model S or X for the fun factor. Too pricey, no local dealer, no local chargers.
    Or a Prius hatchback for the MPG. Not enough cargo utility.
    Or the C-Max for the looks. Not enough cargo utility.

    The '12 v was a compromise, all car purchases are. It isn't as green, doesn't have the highest cargo room, won't carry the max passengers for long distances, isn't as cheap etc as some other options I had. But it was the right purchase for my wants/needs/willingness to spend at the time and has proved its value over 4+ years.

    Is it the right car for me today? That is a different question. Needs/wants/budgets change as do the capabilities of the cars the economics of the fuels, etc. More/different options now.
     
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  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Toyota once had a Corolla wagon named the Matrix available. A new one on the new platform could be comparable to the Prius v. GM is bringing out a Cruze hatchback for 2017. So the Matrix might return, or the v might get cancelled do to sales lost to the Rav4 hybrid.

    I wouldn't compare a Corolla to a v. The utility is too different.
    But I would compare it to the hatch back now. As long as it is like to like, it is a fair comparison for most people. Unlike in 2005, when the old, compact Corolla was being compared to a midsize Prius.
     
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  19. Tideland Prius

    Tideland Prius Moderator of the North
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    Nope. The Auris Corolla iM has taken its place. The best thing is that there's already an Auris Hybrid in both hatchback and wagon form. If the need arises, I'm thinking it won't be too much cost to certify it for North American standards (esp. if the next gen will be based on TNGA and if they have some intention to sell it here)
     
  20. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    It's built on the Corolla platform.
    It's a hatchback/wagon.
    For my point, I'd say the Matrix, which had the sub-name of Corolla SUW on the window sticker, has returned. Name is irrelevant as long as it is of the right vehicle class.

    We can't say if the Corrolla iM is a better comparison for the Prius or the Prius v until we get actual specs for the car.