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Polar Ice For 2016

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by bwilson4web, Dec 23, 2015.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    We owe a debt of gratitude to James Hansen who as a young man at Goddard Space Flight Center calculated the orbital effects and notice the earth was not cooling off enough. The physics identified CO{2} as the root cause. He is still producing: Dr. James E. Hansen

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    You are so bad, invoking the most currently hated (by whacks) name here. There is so much new post-JEH science. There is so much room for near-central accommodation, towards energy we need and excess heating we don't want.

    You and mojo are both out there, on opposing statistical tails, messing with what I want to do in the center.

    Sigh. Your thread. Carry on.
     
  3. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Guilty as charged! For penance, I'll drive to Oklahoma in a in range extended, battery electric car. <grins>

    Mostly it is the heat of melting/freezing water, salt water no less, that keeps me awake. Floods, droughts, and severe weather, these have always existed to a greater or lessor extent. After all, Herbert Hoover made a name for 1920s Mississippi flood relief and later the 1930s migrant Okie camps in California, Hoovervilles. Our species got better about predicting and dealing with these weather disasters. But melting out the Arctic to what is becoming somewhat predictable, summer navigation and continued melting of land-based ice ... these are new to recorded history ... brief and as incomplete it may be.

    Our good if somewhat tone-deaf friend, @mojo, has his demons to fight. But I'll soon be in 'the oil patch' where faith often trumps evidence-based, science. Not like our Alabama home town shared with Roy Spencer, the Alabama Climatologist. Meanwhile, I'm enjoying:
    By no means are these guaranteed but in 2016, everything aligned and these voyages appear to be well on the way to meeting their destinations ... knock on wood.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #103 bwilson4web, Aug 25, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2016
  4. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    From 1400-1850 the Earth was in a cooling period called "the Little ice Age"Glaciers did not recede in this time and probably increased.Solar physicists predict we are entering a 30-50 year period of similar cooling in the next few years.
     
  5. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    You are absolutely delusional if you think CO2 will prevent the next ice age.We'll see in a few years if CO2 can prevent global cooling due to lessening sun spot activity.
    Which has a lot less influence than Milankovich Cycles.I seriously think only a fool would truly believe what you just stated.
    So at least I have more respect for your opinion than if I thought you were just an out and out liar
    .
     
  6. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    Do you recall my post a few years back about CO2 and the end of interglacial warming periods?
    Earths Temp and atmospheric CO2 levels are high.CO2 continues to rise, due to warm ocean outgassing for 800 years.While Earths temp fall into ice age.CO2 has no effect on temp at the end of an interglacial period.(and thus likely no other period)

     
    #106 mojo, Aug 25, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2016
  7. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    All others might enjoy reading (etc.)
     
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Ok, made me look:
    • 1850 and later - I'm interested in modern, instrumented records. Anything earlier is nice but imprecise.
    • solar cycle - the Ukranian/Russian claims are a pattern lacking a model ... numerology.
    <SIGH>Still @mojo continues citing claims without sourcing information. Worse, past practice is excessive use of denier web sites that require a lot of Google to eventually locate the source. Not really a good use of time.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #108 bwilson4web, Aug 25, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2016
  9. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    The strength of PAGES 2K is they bring in paleoproxies for air and water temperature. No one casts the net any wider, AFAIK.

    This means that from ~1850 onward, one can look for concordance* with the thermometers. And, there it is. Further back in time one sees non-directional variability. This important context is not available from thermometers.

    Three weak solar cycles -1800 to 1830 (#5,6,7) I think it is important to bear that 'non-ice-age' in mind as we hear about anticipated effects of this weak solar cycle.

    I have posted sunspot number histories before - y'all don't need tat again right?

    *in other words I don't care of Bob likes thermometers better. So sorry. Concordance is the thing.
     
  10. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I appreciate the efforts of those who look at historical records such a tree rings, ice and mud cores, and ice/snow dates. Just given a choice between these point sources versus metrics collected since the 1850s, I'll go with the industrial-age data. It tends to have finer resolution and wider coverage than reconstructed data.

    Bob Wilson
     
  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    A late storm caused pretty much every craft within 30 km of Barrow to steer into the South-West gale.

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    Are you tracking the Crystal Serenity deluxe cruise?
     
  13. iplug

    iplug Senior Member

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    Looks like they will arrive within the next few hours. Big milestone, and they will probably be very glad to work off some of their sea legs.
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I was until they passed Barrow. They can be tracked using the satellite-based system but they want $15/mo. I am curious but not $15/mo. curious. The closest I can come is: <SURPRISE>
    [​IMG]
    The Northabout must have done a 180 and run with the storm.

    Then they dropped anchor:
    [​IMG]
    They only have to provision the boat, some crew changes, and into the NorthWest passage. They have 3-4 weeks before the freeze up begins.

    The satellite based system shows types of vessels and there is a passenger ship passing just North of Baffin (actually Bylot Island which is North of Baffin) headed East. That is my best guess of the Crystal Serenity. Their ship cameras suggest land on starboard and nothing but ocean ahead and to port. So that is my best guess as I post this.

    Now we'll see their sea skills.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #114 bwilson4web, Aug 28, 2016
    Last edited: Aug 28, 2016
  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Found the Crystal Serenity, I think. The 'bridge cam' indicated they were enroute to "Cambridge Bay, Canada." I notice there is a passenger ship at anchor at Cambridge Bay. This puts them about 1/3d of the way through the NorthWest passage.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    There was a 5 minute story about the Crystal Serenity on national news this morning with lots of photos. Compared to what the usual Arctic supports have been trying to accomplish, this was an amazing amount of 'earned media.' Add to that 1,000 souls who are completing a month long trip ... this is a win-win.

    FYI, @mojo there was plenty of mentions about global warming.

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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    For a longer view on Arctic ice dynamics I'd suggest a couple of publications in Quaternary Science Reviews

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.07.033
    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.10.022

    If paywall problems appear, I am sure they could be resolved without great financial harm to Elsevier :)

    The briefest summary is that arctic iceout is perfectly possible with [CO2] in the 200-300 ppm range. Other things simply need to occur.

    At present, apparently lacking those other factors, we have a multi-decadal trend towards arctic iceout. It is co-occuring with increasing CO2 and increasing T.

    Here we have a complex planet with many interacting processes. An oversimplified perspective about what can and cannot be seems unlikely to improve our understanding.
     
  18. tochatihu

    tochatihu Senior Member

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  19. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    A voyage is not over until the ships are in port but it looks like the worst is over and they have beaten the re-freeze:
    [​IMG]
    This strait is dangerous because of the tidal currents often laced with significant ice foes. Good on them! Safe voyage!

    [​IMG]
    Crystal Serenity with 1,000 passengers and 600 crew are well on the way to Bar Harbor Maine, their next port of call.

    Perhaps @mojo will share this with his source . . . not that it will do any good.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #119 bwilson4web, Sep 10, 2016
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2016
  20. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    After poking fun, it is time to look at this years Arctic minimum. The exact date won't be known for another 2-3 weeks but we're getting close:
    [​IMG]
    The darker ice is multi-year so notice that floating patch in the upper left. Those were significant chunks. But more interesting is that thin, near break that goes above the north pole. With the right winds, a huge section could drift off further reducing the multi-year ice next year.

    Bob Wilson
     
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