You raise a good point. As with anything, assuming a successful mass-market penetration by Nissan et al, you're right, the cost would be stranded

One could raise the same concern about ANY vehicle. The real question should be: Does it fit your need for a price you find reasonable today? When I buy a vehicle I plan to have it for its lifetime. I don't generally buy depreciating assets for their future value. I do consider whether or not it is a vehicle that I think will be reliable and still comfortable to drive 10 years down the road. It's not like I expect a vehicle to have much residual value 10 years from now.

No need to spend $30K anyway...they aren't that pricey.

Whatevever happens, Prius will be less outdated than the prehybrids that make up 99% of our existing fleet.

First, I don't believe that BEV and PHEVs are as ready for prime time as many people think. The Volt is still vaporware.

Second, the first good reliable ones won't be a good fit for me, as I am transitioning out of the short daily commute pattern, into a retirement pattern of fewer trip segments of much greater average length, so EVs are not yet of interest to me.

Third, the Prius design is not yet ready as a real EV. It is still primarily a gasoline powered car. Despite the apparent success of the plug-in conversions, the electric hardware is not yet designed for very long term reliability under 100% electric duty cycle. It likely will need another redesign to get there.

Fourth, worldwide battery production capacity is quite short of allowing a rapid changeover of the world motor fleet. Even if existing hybrids become technologically obsolete within a few years, they will continue to make economic sense for the remainder of their service life, because it will make more sense to scrap the nonhybrids first, and that cannot happen very fast.

Cause you know, once a car is "obsolete" the engine won't start and the wheels won't turn and the car take you places or anything....

My biggest disappointment of many Prius owners in general is their susceptibility to this consumer electronics throwaway mindset.

I guess I had a similar concern as well. My New Prius V is in now and I plan to take delivery on it in the next week. What I looked at to help me decide is to Lease the vehicle this time, since the technology will be changing a lot in the next couple years. I am not one to get a new release car such as a VOLT without some time and dependability results. As for the Plug in Prius I suspect they will be limited in production as well as the new Volt and Nissan announcement. I think if you are concerned, do as I did and lease and then you are not left with something of limited value,(although I don't see that an issue with the gas price markets).

In the 3 years or 4 years of the lease walk away and get the latest and greatest technology once a track record has been set. Those are my thoughts. The Toyota Prius has been on market for a long time and they have further refined the vehicle this year.

I think you should be relatively safe.

Listen, I just threw this concern out for discussion. Based mostly on what I see as a dynamic time concerning news about upcoming alternative automobiles. Seems like we've had at least a story a day about The Volt, The Leaf, or even a new Toyota or Honda product.

Not to be too defensive, but in my specific case, I have these concerns because I don't have a consumer electronics throwaway mindset. I can't afford to have one. If I purchase a 2010 it's in the hopes it's viable for at least a decade.

But I think it's fair for anyone to keep an eye on what might happen to the value of an investment. Not that an automobile is purchased with the idea that it will increase in value, that is never (or hardly ever) the case. Assuming a loaded Prius, IV or V, could I afford it to be costing me around $30,000 today and have it's value plummet if new technology suddenly makes it undesirable?

I agree that a lot of owners seem to approach The Prius as a toy. I would guess they have more expendable income than I have, for those, if new technology trumps todays Prius, they will just absorb the loss and buy a new one, or whatever vehicle is now superior.

I know there isn't too much anyone can do about this, if it happens it happens. But I am begining to worry that The Prius and the whole Hybrid, Nickel Hydride era of relative superiority within the genre isn't coming to an end.

I think you are over analyzing this. If you boil things down to a single basic premise it would be this.


There is no way a vehicle that gets 50mpg is going to become obsolete within the next 10 years.


I am 100% confident in that single statement.

Wow, did you ever hit the nail right on the head!!!

My vote for best PriusChat words of wisdom of the year...

Keith

My 07 is apparently now obsolete, but still works fine. I plan to keep it until it is worn out.

When your well designed old Toyota '07 Prius is worn out and will no longer run; we hopefully will all be riding bicycles and walking a lot more and wars will again be fought with sticks and stones.

Keith

If you must buy a car right now, I would highly recommend the Prius. Batteries will eventually be so cheap that you can affordably convert your Prius to a PHEV. You can't easily do that with an ICE. Every year, there are going to be announcements like the Nissan Leaf. By the time the Leaf comes out in October 2010, the Prius will announce a PHEV far more advanced than they were stating on the news to spur current Prius sales. By the time that comes out, an EV with 300 mile range will be announced with far less bugs than the first EVs, safer, and much cheaper. It'll never end.

If you can wait, I would highly recommend waiting. I'm waiting. Besides, I missed my opportunity with the WA state tax-free purchase period for the Prius. There's no way I can get one now without feeling stupid even if my car is literally dying.

This^^^

At present the Prius is the most advanced vehicle on the road. The newer developments are still years away and still largely unproven. Mass acceptance of these newer vehicles as Evan noted won't arrive until the decade of the 20's!! The '20s!!

In the meanwhile the largest bulk of buyers throughout the world will still be driving the technology developed 100 years ago..simple ICE engines.

Analysis Paralysis should not be allowed to set in.

I'm not worried any more than I was in 2001 when we bought the Echo instead of the Prius.

In May 2009, we sold the Echo to someone to replace his small Toyota pickup truck and we used the money to pay part of the 2010 purchase. The Echo buyer is happy to go from ~25 MPG to ~35 MPG. We're very happy to go from ~32 MPG to ~52 MPG. So everyone is very happy.

I can't get worried about some future vehicles that on August 17, 2009 are just "Power Point" presentations and press releases. I can't drive my 2010 down to the local dealer to see, much less buy one. Heck, I might as worry about the 2110 models as ones that are as of yet not on the dealer lots. So I'm not really worried.

Bob Wilson

There's no such thing as equity in a car. "Resale value" is a lie propagated by dealers who want to sell you a new one every three years. If you care about extracting maximum value from a car, buy a used one and drive it until it falls apart. Second best strategy: buy a new one and drive it until it falls apart. Anything else makes the value of your money a distant second priority.

If you are going to keep your Prius for a decade, then what worries do you have about resale value? The Prius will continue to be a good, reliable automobile regardless of newer technologies.

Tom

I wonder if land barge owners began wringing their hands when they found the Gen I came out ... no? Maybe when the Gen II came out ... no? The III? No. Well there ya go. Red alert canceled. IOW, there'll aways be a market for the junk that aint the latest & greatest.


You can wait & wait & hope some day something else comes out ... maybe it will ... maybe it won't ... or you can enjoy what there is right now, in the here & now.
.

... and if and when it does arrive, there will already be something else newer and better and spiffier visible on the horizon, threatening to make all previous stuff obsolete.

This is similar to, but slower moving than, the home computer market. Some folks were waiting for the technology to stabilize so that their purchase wouldn't be obsolete in a six months or a year. Thirty years and many PC generations later, they are still waiting.