Case study in Canada for when tax incentives for EV's expire

So they conclude the loss of incentives caused a loss of plug-in sales. I think so too.

Poor choice of states though: No, Virginia shall not.

PS- good post!

 

No surprise. I leased a 2014 Leaf in Ontario, and the provincial rebate played a large role in my decision. It amounts to about 20% of the purchase price, and in the case of a lease the entire rebate can be applied to a 3+ year term.

The interesting aspect of this to my mind is the effect of the rebate on the valuation of late-model used cars, and the market influence that comes out of different provincial rebate availability. When I looked at the used EV market (largely imported US vehicles here in Canada, as we are just now seeing material sales numbers on new vehicles) it was hard to see a case for buying used in Ontario, because of the attractive subsidy on new. But if I lived across the provincial border in a province that didn't offer any rebate a used EV would have been a more attractive proposition because my net purchase cost for a new car would have been ~25% higher.

Of course there is always a portion of the buying public that won't consider a used vehicle, and I suppose a smaller cohort that never considers new. But have to think that in Canada the market for used EVs coming off lease or being brought in across the border is relatively weak in Ontario and Quebec vs. the rest of the country, while the demand for new is stronger.

It's a similar issue looking at residual values and depreciation. The 38% of new price residual value that my 4 year lease is calculated on looks low at first glance, and would translate into very high payments without the rebate. Looking at the residual against the after-rebate cost, it's a much more reasonable 47%, which is in the range of ICE cars.