Conversion to plug-in: NOT WORTH IT?

I have been trying to figure out whether or not it makes sense to install a kit and turn my 2011 Prius into a PHEV. Holding the coolness factor aside (and that is a big one) and assuming this is an economic decision, rather than one based on saving the planet or national defense, etc. I can't see how it makes sense to do it.

Based on the assumptions below, the investment doesn't even come out of the red until I have driven 50,000 miles. The way I drive, break even is between 6 and 7 years. A more typical driver would be looking at 5 years. If so, this investment in pretty hard to underwrite. Especially considering the opportunity cost of investing $3,500 somewhere else for the next 5+ years...

Unless I am dead wrong, I can only assume that nobody converts their Prius to a PHEV for the economic benefits (except maybe those who put major miles on the car per year). Which leaves "coolness" and saving the planet etc. as the only viable motivations to do it. (I have read others on this website expressing a view that "going green" was not their motivation).

Any members rocking a PHEV conversion kit who care to share their thought process?

Assumptions:
Gas is $3.50 / gal
Typical Prius+Driver gets 50 mpg
Cost of kit+installation is $3,500
Typical Prius+Driver+kit gets 100 mpg
Cost per mile without kit is $0.07
Cost per miles with kit is $0.035
Miles required to break even = 50,000

Note: A key assumption is gas prices stay at $3.50 but even if it increases substantially, we are sill looking at years to break even. Also, in my model, there is no assumption for the cost of charging the batteries, so I am effectively assuming free electricity...

Something's not quite right with the math. The breakeven point is 100,000 miles before factoring in the cost of electricity.

As far as I know, a PHEV kit only makes economic sense if you live in Europe, and even then it is a close call.

The math is right given the stated assumptions. If anything you need to challenge the assumptions with closer to real numbers (which I do not have).

• I think it's a bit of a stretch that the plug in will actually double your MPGs.
• It sounds reasonable to say it m makes more sense in EU, I visited Italy this summer and gas prices there were $9 to the gallon (after converting from Euro to US Dollar)!!!!

IMO, it is more of an emotional choice than a financial one. Then again 90% of the process of buying a car is emotional.


Cheers!

Not worth it, if you're still in the "sweet spot" of 8 years / 200,000 miles.

After that, why not? Car is paid for...will make you ICE last longer.

I live in Quebec - where gas is 30-40% higher than the US average, and, electricity costs are 30-50% lower than the US average.

I will NOT change anything in the car PHEV-wise until I've passed the "sweet spot" - which is initial investment on the car, first 5 years to pay it, then 3-4 years of near-no-maintenance and no payments.

Gasoline prices will go up in 5 years, like they've always done in the past...but still won't be worth it.

Cheaper to get a full electric EV like the Leaf, then get a used Hyundai Accent as a 2nd gas-only car if required.
Or, get just the Leaf, and Rent-A-Car for you vacations - extended drives - for those 2-3 times per year.

My opinion...

Like you said, only not worth it economically.

Not using any gasoline at all is worth it to some people at any financial expense. "Worth" is subjective. If doing it purely economically, it would have been smarter to buy an 80's corolla for a few hundred dollars that gets 30's mpg. But we add things like comfort, safety, styling into what things are worth, and then a Prius makes sense. Add things in like not supporting hostile nations via oil exchange, and the worth of not burning gas outweighs saving a few dollars.

No.

100,000 miles at 50 mpg: 2000 gallons of gas, $7000.
100,000 miles at 100 mpg, 1000 gallons of gas, $3500, PHEV kit, $3500, total $7000.

Pay attention to Iran right now. If we go to war and you make the buy, people will think you are lucky/smart when oil/gas prices skyrocket.

This, also how much would the plug-in increase your electric bill?

Depending on how much you use, check your electric bill, .15-.50 per kwh. The pip 2012 has about 4.4kwh battery so about $.50-$2 to fully charge for 13 miles. Since the aftermarket has more kwh, expect bigger battery maybe 10-15 kwh.

Thank you. The math is incorrect, I admit. Its 50,000 incremental miles, so yes - payback occurs after 100,000 miles in total. I just traded in my 9-year old Passat with 70,000 miles, so my driving patterns make this unlikely to ever break even for me.

I appreciate everyone's comments about "worth" being subjective, and that was my essential point. The only reason a person would plunk down the cash for a conversion would be for non-economic or extremely indirect economic reasons: e.g., geopolitical and/or emissions concern.

As I see it, both of these reasons are more about making a personal statement than they are about creating any true impact. This is not meant to minimize the importance of making a personal statement, taking a stand, or just doing it because it is frikkin cool. Those things have utility value too. In fact, I am still really considering doing it anyway! But anyone who does so should know that what they are buying is a consumption good, not an investment.

Another hope I have in posting this is to stimulate some thought about the true barriers to breaking our dependence on the gasoline-powered internal combustion engine. En masse, we are economic actors. Until we break through the major cost barrier, I don't believe the Volt, priced at $40k before tax incentive, or the Prius plug-in with its short EV range and extra cost (how much?) will realize their potential of significantly reducing emissions (also worth bearing in mind that U.S., automotive gasoline accounts for only 47% of U.S. crude consumption in total).

By the way, I so wanted a leaf but just could not get there. (needed it immediately, no place to install a 220v charger, etc. Nonetheless, I got EV-envy. That (and my general compulsiveness) is likely to have me spending this money on this consumption good. Heck, I like to drop $10-20 on a James Bond movie for pure entertainment. This is the same thing, but on a grander scale.

You are assuming that the electric motor will run at normal speed. From what I have read, the Enginer unit shuts off above 34mph, leaving you in the Prius' normal operation mode most of the time. I drive above 34mph most of the time unless I am stuck in stop-and-go traffic on the freeways (which is a lot of the time in L.A.)

I have a PV solar system on my home. It has covered my total electric bill since installed (4 years) and leaves me about 1700kW per year excess (which after one year of rollover my utility pays me for the unused previous carryover). Assuming I would have to charge the system each weeknight (4kW per charge) that would be 260 charges for a total of 1040kW per year. I could cover that now, making the cost of the Enginer system the only component. In California you are required to purchase the 5 year warranty by law (add $1000 to the cost). the system at 4kW is $3495 + $1000 + plus tax on $4495 (Californians are required to pay sales tax on a service or other intangible benefit if it is required as part of the sale). My rate is 8.75% for a total of $4888.31. (I would do the installation - it is much simpler with the new systems available now).
If I assume I will actually get 65 miles per gallon in blended driving I will save approx. $1.05 per gallon of gasoline consumed (50mpg as the car sits now).

I will need to drive a total of 232,000 miles to break even, and my "fuel" is free!
As much as I would love to have the system, it just won't make any economic sense.

i have a pip on order. after the $2500. tax credit, it's about $3500. more than a similarly equipped prius. doubling the mpg's with careful driving (includes the cost of electricity saves me about 120 gallons a year at 12,000 miles. if gas were $4. call it 500 bucks. that's a 7 year payback if electricity cost stays the same or better if gas goes up. so, for me, it's the hope of demand creating a new wave of alternative energy sources. (and the cool factor)

Yeah, my post above did not include the part of the equation on what value I would put on the personal emotional benefit to me. If I could get SWAMBO's (She Who Always Must Be Obeyed) OK I would fork over the $4880 and install the system.

you have to come up with the right argument.

After 27 years of marriage all my arguments end with "you are right, dear!"

China is the primary buyer of Iran oil.

No Iran oil comes to the USA / Canada.

As the West tightens the Iranian embargo, other nations drop out from buying Iran oil, which makes the price to China drop.

China refuses to join the Iran embargo, because the embargo means that China oil prices drop.


UN inspectors say that Iran is not making nuclear weapons.
American inspectors say that Iran in not making nuclear weapons.
The CIA and NSA say that Iran in not making nuclear weapons.
Iran says that Iran is not making nuclear weapons.
They have been fully open to all of our inspectors.
Stop the propaganda.

Eratosthaenes- I went though the same thought process a year or two back and came to the same conclusion. The other thing that scared me off was the issues with some of the conversion kits. The A123 Hymotion kit seemed like the gold standard, but at $10k or so it was more that I would spend. It seemed like the people here with the Engineer kits had to do a great deal of babying the battery pack. Everyone had good things to say about the company, but it seemed like there were so many issues with the product - I wanted something to install and forget about so the comments would likely have scared me off even if the economics were favorable.

Actually, 56% of Iran's oil exports are to Asia (Japan, China, and I believe South Korea make up the bulk of that). Another 29% is exported to Europe. (http://www.house.gov/jec/studies/rr109-31.pdf)

The EU has committed to a ban on Iranian crude (UPDATE 2-China defends Iran oil trade despite U.S. push | Reuters)

If Europe is no longer buying oil from Iran, they will need to source it from other oil producing nations, most definitely driving the price of crude oil up for the United States as well.

At the very least the simple thought that prices for crude oil may rise will be enough to actually increase the price (i.e. speculation).

As you stated Europe buys only a small minority of Iranian oil.

If Europe enforces an embargo on Iran, then Europe will have to stop buying Iranian oil. It would be embargo'ed.

Leaving China [and all of Asia] as their primary buyer [as it is today].

orphan Leafs

You could've gotten an orphan Leaf and had it shipped to you. At least two dealers in CA had a bunch of orphan '11 and '12 Leafs being advertised at My Nissan Leaf Forum • View forum - Buying / Leasing / Dealerships. A number of folks who live in states where the Leaf isn't available in their area yet went that route.

You don't need to install a 220 volt EVSE. Some folks have been and still only charge at 120 volts. Or, you could go with EVSE Upgrade - Products.