How much of that additional 500,000 will be refined to additional gasoline in the states? That is a significant piece of the equation of course.

So maybe it's a fair bet to start Prius-flipping for the speculators out there??

yikes..

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(Godiva\";p=\"100135)</div>

Actually, I've seen stations within NYC for 87 at 2.65 and, get this, 2.99 for super... Of course, the station was within the upper west side, right in the city, so it's sort of understandable...

IMO, we're going to see textbook, capitalist, economic forces at work REAL fast. You've already seen it, the Prius is in such high demand there are waiting lists. The higher gas prices go, the more focus will be placed on alternative engergies, which in turn will ultimately, hopefully, lower the demand for their "Allah-Juice" ( :mrgreen: ).

I too am glad I snagged a Prius when I could. Depending on how much Toyota increases their prices, my Prius could be worth more than currently-priced new Prius's USED.

<div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(HYACK\";p=\"100149)</div>

LOL, GREAT sig.! :mrgreen:

huh?

The $60 cost of a barrel today is still less than the about $90 1970s prices during the oil crisis when adjusted for inflation.

This is what I posted in early April and I still stand by it today. 60$ a barrel is a ceiling that is difficult to break through at this time. There is just too much incentive to lock in prices at this level and not enough pressure to pump more money into the futures market. Here is the quote. YMMV

"Oil companies do not set the price of gasoline. The gasoline retailers set the price. The price they pay is determined on the open market just like the price of oil. Price manipulation is possible but difficult, just as it is in the stock market. The gasoline futures market rises and falls on sentiment, just as does the stock market. Recent moves of fund money into energy stocks, especially by hedge funds, has brought a new volatility to this market. I continue to expect gas prices to peak around the first week of may and level off and slowly decline through the following months. This is different than many of the news story forecasts of rising prices throughout the summer. My evidence continues to grow as the price for May 5th delivery peaked at $1.73 a few weeks ago and fell to the mid $1.50s by early last week. It closed at $1.51 for june 5th delivery yesterday and I expect it to trade sideways from here in the short term. In comparison, last years high prices in may were tied to a futures price for that period that peaked in the mid $1.40s. From there it slowly fell through the summer and I expect the same pattern this year.

Current high prices are driven on sentiment alone and are not supportable by market conditions. In this condition, price collapses like the 17% fall in the price of crude in the last week or so are quite possible.

External forces could change and justify higher prices. A major disruption in Saudi Arabia, for instance, could cause demand to overtake supply. This possibility is priced in to the current price levels. Just as likely, is a demand decline caused by economic and investment slowdown brought on by high energy prices. This was seen in the last week as the EU lowered its growth forecast due to higher energy prices and the US economy showed signs of weakness, leading to a sharp sell-off in the equities markets.

I see gas prices falling to near $2.00 nationally and crude to not top 60$ this year for more than a few days if at all. "



OK, so the price of gas did drop as we entered the summer and is starting up again now. The futures market is again at a peak and will correct some now. It is poised for another price collapse and when it starts, many players will jump on the bandwagon to lock in profits from the recent run-up. Of course, no one can know for sure what the energy market will do and in the end it will go up. I just don't think that it will top 60$ quite yet. We are a whisper away and it could break through on significant news but little things like US supply numbers will be shrugged off.

Current price $59.90.

$60.05 just crossed the wire. The barrier has taken it's first bump.

The effect on the nation's economy will be felt by everyone if these prices hold or continue to climb. Talking about the 'inflation adjusted' price is useless - people's budgets are based on the here and now, and most people have a lot of expenses that just did not exist in the 1970s. Also, the way 'inflation' is calculated by the government by excluding food and fuel is ridiculous - these two items affect every living being in the nation.

When (not if) prices rise to the $3.00 level, it will spell the end of GM, Ford, and/or Chrysler since I do not believe they can adjust to such a market change quick enough. The poor folks that have the big SUVs will be stuck with them forever, since they will be worthless. The changes coming to our lifestyle will be immense.

I heard an "expert" on the national news tonight say he wouldn't be surprised if oil hit $70 a barrel before the end of the year. There is too much competition for oil. The Chinese are looking to buy Unocal.

***********

Gas isn't going to drop to $2 a gallon. It will have ups and down but steadily increase to $3 by the end of the year.

Polls have shown Americans will pay up to $5 a gallon before a major revolt. So that is where gas will go.

Everything is going to get more expensive.

More people are going to start looking into and buying hybrids, so the shortages and waiting lists will continue. People who wouldn't have considered a hybrid before are going to look at them seriously. That segment of car buyers is going to slowly increase. Even with the increase in productions and models there are still going to be waiting lists and shortages. I just don't see the supply catching up with the demand as long as gas prices increase. And they will increase.

Ray More,

Oil will hit $70 before it hits $50. Gas will hit $1.80 before it hits $1.45.

IMHO.

Have a good one and don't play those markets too hard mate... Unless it's other peoples money of course

I continually hear that the money equation for money saving in the long run by prius buyers doesn;t work out... i.e. the $ saved by buying less gasoline over the life of the vehicle is more than outweighed by the relatively higher sticker price. Prius buyers are motivated by more than money - they also like the low, low emissions.
My question is this: Does anybody know the equation used that calculates this result? At what price was gasoline per gallon in their model? What price does gas have to be per gallon before the Prius makes sense from a purely self-interested economic standpoint?

oil is at $60 a barrel, and i dont think it will ever go below 60$ again.

Oh, it will drop below $60. But it won't drop below $50 anymore. At least not far or for long.

Will it be $70 before the end of the year. I wouldn't be surprised.

Remember...the survey said Americans will pay $5 a gallon before they revolt.

That's why all those articles about "Prius doesn't pay" make me laugh. Maybe it doesn't make sense at $2.25 a gallon, but try it again at $3.59 a gallon and see. Then at $4.29. Then at $5. Eventually....it's gonna pay.

But that's OK. As long as the price of gas keeps going up AND the demand for Prii isn't being met by the supply...my resale value will continue to be closer to MSRP than any other car.

CNN article today predicts gas will go above $3.00 a gallon.

Pickens: Oil spike will lead to $3 gas
Head of BP Capital Management says the black gold in the ground simply won't meet demand.

Read article by clicking this link.

My understanding it that right now...it isn't the lack of oil that's driving the price up, it's the lack of refineries to produce enough gasolline. That is solely a domestic problem and has nothing to do with the importation of oil from where or how much. It's our own American companies $crewing their fellow Americans to make a buck.

Hey...it worked for Enron.

Um, Godiva... for sake of discussion...are you saying you support more refineries being built in US then? Where would you propose they be built (you support the ex-military base scheme)?? Just curious, thnx

well i predicted $2.75 by july 4th (missed that, here anyway) and $3.50 by the end of the year. i still think we will hit it.

cant even begin to think what might happen if China buys Conoco.

Well, oil went to 60 for one day and then had a substantial correction, as I suspected it would. The drop yesterday was $2.36. I see further downward moves now. The first move past 60 has been rejected and in the absence of fundamentals that support these prices, the market will swing the other way. These prices are driven by fear and are therefore, fragile.

Because the fear of a shortage can cause prices to rise to this level, a real shortfall will create prices much higher than this.(90$) To predict substantially higher prices than this is to predict when that shortfall will occur. That is extremely difficult to predict. Predicting fear based price increases is easy by comparison.