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Edmunds: Hybrid and Electric Owner Loyalty

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Apr 22, 2015.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Source: Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Struggle to Maintain Owner Loyalty, Reports Edmunds.com

    According to Edmunds.com, about 22 percent of people who have traded in their hybrids and EVs in 2015 bought a new SUV. The number represents a sharp increase from 18.8 percent last year, and it is nearly double the rate of 11.9 percent just three years ago. Overall, only 45 percent of this year's hybrid and EV trade-ins have gone toward the purchase of another alternative fuel vehicle, down from just over 60 percent in 2012. Never before have loyalty rates for alt-fuel vehicles fallen below 50 percent.

    I have and still have faith in Edmunds as a fair observer of the market and agree with their analysis. But I see it differently:
    • 1981 - OPEC killed the emerging shale oil production by dropping prices significantly.
    • 2015 - OPEC is trying to kill efficient cars by dropping prices significantly.
    • Buyer's market!

    Bob Wilson
     
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  2. ETC(SS)

    ETC(SS) The OTHER One Percenter.....

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    -Concur.
    In fact, I plan to go the other way.
    My next car will either be PHEV or a hybrid.

    Having said that I'm a big fan of some of the real-world 40-mpg cars out there.
    They're MUCH more fun to drive and the amenities are fairly good, and all makes are starting to meet Toyota and Honda's gold standard for reliability.
    And then.......
    There's the Hybrid Premium.

    Thirty years ago, banks were first starting to "give" people 60 month loans to a car buying public that kept cars for probably about 8 years on average.
    Now.....72 month loans are not considered unusual, and cars are being traded out every 4-5 years on average. We're starting to hear "sub-prime" on financial shows again.
    That's another trend I intend to counter....so I can still cost justify a real-world 50-mpg car that's a few thousand more on the front end and has seats that hurt my back end.

    Put another way....even at $2 a gallon, I just don't go around wasting gas for no reason.


    The human animal is not very good at long term risk.
    Examples abound:

    Smokers (& tokers)
    The obese.
    Retirement fund shirkers.
    Couch potatoes.

    And now.....a 60 month loan on a car that gets 30MPG, will be worth 30-percent of its value and out of warranty before the loan is paid off.
    Naaaah. ;)

    I just wish I were in the market this year, because it's going to be a REALLY good time to buy this fall!
     
  3. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    makes me want to buy a 15 and put it in the barn.
     
  4. Bill the Engineer

    Bill the Engineer Senior Member

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    Maybe Hybrid owners just keep their cars longer if they like them. Folks who don't like them will naturally trade for something else. The statistics may not be telling the whole story.

    Bill the Engineer
     
  5. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Yep

    New hybrids are bought by the relatively affluent, and there is no lack of hybrid owners who also own another non-hybrid car. Just because the hybrid is traded in does not mean that it will not be replaced by another hybrid or fuel efficient car later. Just not that day.
     
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  6. ITgem679

    ITgem679 Junior Member

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    I have a 60 month loan on mine. I don't plan on giving my car up for 10 years. That way I can enjoy it for 5 years payment free before I move on to bigger and better...and it probably won't be an SUV because I'm hooked on the SWEEEET MPG...
     
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  7. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    • October 5, 2005 - bought first Prius, NHW11, still getting 52 MPG. Been paid off 7 years and still going strong after 115,000 miles.
    • May 27, 2009 - bought second Prius, ZVW30, still getting 52 MPG at 5 mph faster and 5F colder weather. Been paid off 3 years and still going strong after 62,000 miles.
    • 177,000 miles / 52 MPG = 3,404 gallons @$3/gal ~= $10,206 :: also savings!
    The cars aren't broke and keep getting 52 MPG. When or if one breaks, reaches End Of Life, I'll have choices and we'll see what is available.

    Bob Wilson
     
    #8 bwilson4web, Apr 22, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2015
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  8. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    okay, okay, so i only keep mine 4 years.(n) at least someone else gets a good deal!:)
     
  9. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I agree that we may be seeing the start of a cyclical downturn in crude oil prices like the 1980's. To me Prius is a great car that just happens to be a hybrid. I possibly see less need for a hybrid <given the better MPG choices now> but I'd be hard pressed to see less need for a Prius overall. Can't see going back to 2 minivans (still got one). I don't need a new car but if hybrid/plug-in prices tank I may be tempted for a PiP or regular Prius. Probably I wait until crash avoidance comes out and then I pick up used one some years down the road. Report today people seeking crash avoidance/safety over MPG . Our miles per year is going down as we get younger.
     
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  10. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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  11. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    We vote with our wallets.

    Bob Wilson
     
  12. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    i stuffed the ballot box.:oops:
     
  13. 2k1Toaster

    2k1Toaster Brand New Prius Batteries

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    Agreed.
     
  14. sdtundra

    sdtundra Senior Member

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    I am actually in that boat right now, except looking at the Rav4 Hybrid depending on MPG due to the AWD (being able to go to Tahoe with snow tires and not having to chain up every time) and interior space. Would I trade for a regular gas car...nope, the amount of stop and go would kill the brakes and waste gas.
     
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  15. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Today there are reservoirs of future hybrid and EV customers living where the tax structures keep gas prices high. Legacy structures that insulate future hybrid customers from the free market price of oil . . . for a little while. Then there are the waking twins, China and India.

    A common claim is that the USA ~5% of the human species consumes ~20% of the petroleum. As our habits are adopted by more peoples, oil, coal, and gas will evaporate in a blink of time . . . leaving the fusion furnace passing overhead daily and a CO{2} legacy. Hopefully, without a more radioactive layer in the geographical record.

    This is not a Cassandra vision but simply hope this egg can not be unscrambled. However small the market, efficient cars are here to stay. Like surfing, wait for the next wave.

    Bob Wilson
     
  16. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    How many of those trading in a hybrid for an SUV bought the hybrid, not because they wanted too, but felt they had too due to higher gas prices? Now they are just going back to what they truly wanted.
     
  17. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    KNOW YOUR AUDIENCE.

    A lot of Volt "hate" came from pointing out sales losses on the showroom floor. We've seen many who's lease expired choose something else afterward too.

    The response was to focus on conquest sales instead, completely disregarding loyal GM customers lack of interest in GM's premiere vehicle. That obviously isn't a wise long-term plan.

    That's why the next-gen model look was chosen to make it blend into the GM product-line better.

    The sacrifices are still too many though. Cost is high. Seating is limited. It continues to exclude a rear-wiper. It doesn't offer adaptive-cruise or LED headlights. How does that make it competitive with the other GM choices? Not offering high-speed recharge keeps it from competing with high-capacity plug-on vehicles too.

    Appealing to the masses is a major challenge, even when gas is expensive. But now with the gallon so cheap, even more effort is required. Understanding the customer mindset is key.
     
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  18. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    By the time the next Volt and PiP come out, the California PHEV HOV incentive will be gone (unless they up it again). So I have trouble seeing how robust sales continue, except there is the issue of the current Volt/PiP leasees needing a car after the lease is up.
     
  19. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    How does an article on more hybrids and electrics being traded in for SUVs imply that it is mostly Volts that are the model traded in? Couldn't it just as easily being Prii owners getting tired of waiting for the next generation?