Ike is cat4 now, but is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it leaves Cuba. I think the amount of strengthening before gulf landfall is up in the air for a couple of days. Is Tx and LA really only 7.5% of gulf oil production ? I was curious about that question just this morning, and found a picture of gulf oil rigs that suggested otherwise.

If someone can explain how to upload a picture from my local drive I'll show it.

Remember when gasoline was $4.50 ? I took this pic on June 4, 2008 before it peaked. Today, Sept 7, 2008, this same Shell station near my house is asking $3.79. Yesterday, at the ARCO next to where I work, I paid $3.65.

Yes, but you are assuming that a realistic assessment of the threat has anything to do with what oil and gasoline prices will do in the face of the big scary cloud. If you sneeze on the right trader, prices go up a dollar.

That, and the storm's strength upon leaving Cuba has little to do with its strength at landfall. The gulf waters are extremely warm, and have the ability to increase it back up to a major hurricane in no time.

He said 7.5% of the nation's oil, not 7.5% of the gulf oil.

To post a picture:

Scroll down from the text box to find a button that says "Manage Attachments" and click on that. You'll get a pop-up window which will allow you to browse your computer. Once you've found the pic, click on "open" which will fill in the path and name of the file. Then click on Upload, and when that's done, you'll see the name of the file. Then when you post your message the pic will appear as a clickable thumbnail.

It's also possible to host a pic on a remote site and make it display full size on PC, but someone else will have to give you the instructions for that. I just do it the easy way described above.

As Bo Diddley says, Hush Your Mouth !

Ike slows petroleum industry recovery efforts in Gulf | Front page | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

Thanks Daniel.

Right about 7.5% being US use. Since the gulf supplies 25% of US oil use, that works out to about 1/3 of US gulf production off Texas and LA. That is getting closer to eyeballing this picture:

According to multiple various news media, 70% of our nation's daily oil supply is imported. Also, according to multiple various news media, 25% of domestic supply/output comes from the Texas-Louisiana region of Gulf offshore oil pumping rigs. Doing the math, (0.25)(0.30)=0.075.

I have seen one of those maps of all of the "dots" where the hundreds of offshore platforms are. Those maps are pretty cool !

Here's an interesting piece of data: In 2002, when SUVs were ruling the road, the Gulf of Mexico was producing $1 Billion worth of oil per day. If we import 70% of our oil, just imagine how much of Amercan citizen's CASH is going to foreign governments every day!!!!!!!! THIS IS WHY WE NEED PLUG-IN HYBRIDS AND ELECTRIC VEHICLES!

Here is my prediction: If Hurricane Ike is a category 4 and hits Texas, the price of crude oil will plummet !!! "What?" you say. If 92.5% of our oil supply comes from outside of the path of the hurricane yet 50% of our nation's refining capacity is in Texas and is damaged, then there will become a shortage of gasoline for drivers, BUT there will be a HUGE BACKUP of crude oil from the supply end. Oil prices will plummet globally, as the U.S. is the world's #1 oil consumer. However, there will be a shortage of gasoline on the market in the U.S. For those of us living in California (or nearby states), there is no need to worry about not having gasoline, as our gasoline comes from the Chevron refinery at the Port of Long Beach (Los Angeles). Prices will likely go up, but we will still have our gasoline. For those living on the East Coast in in the Mid-West, there will be a shortage. Chicago brings in 1 Billion barrels per day (post-refined products) through a pipe line from Texas refineries. Chicago then distributes that fuel throughout the region via the rail roads. Where does Texas get the oil ? From oil tankers that dock at ports along the Texas and Louisiana coast. If the Gulf is damaged, the Mid-West will have to rely on imports through New England ports and refineries (which are much smaller).

I read the other day that the first hurricane in a row tends to be the strongest, because the followers have to feed at a low(er) calorie trough.

Why do you think the outcomes will be different than we saw post katrina/rita ?

I thought it was first projected to hit the western part of Florida, but now, tonight they say Florida to Texas. This time of year I would imagine it would hit Florida.

Not to get off subject but here we go again with OPEC.
OPEC rethinking production cut plans

http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/03/02/business/opec.php

Good. I won't have to drive anywhere.

We had an incident last week with the pipeline drying up. Both up north and to the south. Tankers were backed up. Makes you wonder just what the hell they are trying to pull.

Read the sticker on the top left.

The price of gas will be affected by supply if the hurricane damages facilities. But it will also be affected by public perception: If the oil companies and gas stations feel that the public thinks there is going to be a shortage, they'll take advantage of that perception to raise prices; and if speculators expect a shortage they'll drive the price up by competing with each other to buy as much as they can. The market is complex and includes both physical and psychological factors.

In the long term the price will be erratic, with small unpredictable rises and falls, but will trend ever upwards.

Back to sovereign funds driving the market if it's perception vs. supply - demand.

Pretty cleaver if not diabolical. They add to their coffers any way you look at it. I wonder if the Saudis are laundering for bin Laden.

Oh, and by the way, love the sticker. Isn't that the truth.

The problem is # of rigs does not correlate with production. We've got many rigs in the Gulf, but the total output is low.

Good luck to those trying to get out of the hurricane's path. Evacuating the Houston area was unsuccessful during Rita, it gridlocked for three days and folks ran out of gas as a result. The state didn't have any idea how to manage the traffic despite a long warning for the event itself and there were no shelters for those stuck in the city. Since then they've had some time to work on planning a workable contraflow, etc. so perhaps they will do better evacuating this time. (Fortunately, Houston only took a light hit from Rita.)

Evan, I used to live in Shreveport (just across the Red River from Bossier City). What are you doing way out there? In case of power outages, you can always take refuge in one of the casinos!

Anyways, do keep us posted on events in that part, especially if there are any storm damages such as uprooted trees and such. My parents house is in that area (though they no longer live there) and I might inherit it at some point.