Hybrid sales are falling

Sorry, the graph show cumulative vehicle sales up to 2013, it does show the trend in 2014.
It is not a meaningful graph.

 

It would be useful to have update info on %hybrids on the road in USA.

...the last data we have goes back to 2012: <1% hybrids in the data then by Experian. There was a WSJ "energy-expert" article today saying 5% hybrids on the road, but it wasn't clear where they got that.

 

so far in 2014 hybrid sales are closer to 2012 percentages, and Prius is down some

 

Prius sales have absolutely fallen off a cliff in Australia over the past couple of years, and the media have jumped on this to say that hybrids are irrelevant and unnecessary. They've ignored the fact that the reason that Prius sales have collapsed is that both the larger HyCam and the better-equipped CT200h are cheaper, and that they have done far more than just cannibalise Prius sales: they outsell the Prius enormously.

Still, our hybrid sales are tiny - only about 1% of car sales in 2013.
Hybrid car sales make up 1 per cent of vehicle sales

It's weird, because we're probably better-suited to hybrid cars than just about any other market (except maybe China and Singapore): almost all of our driving is stop-start urban.

 

But you are the land of the V6 ute, sanctuary to the American muscle car, and home of Mad Max. Which had a car with a blower that as a friend put it, "could suck in small animals and children."

 

V6 utes are for the slow and lazy.

What any red-blooded Aussie wants is a V8 ute. Because when you need to take a fridge, a sofa and some bedroom furniture from 0-60mph in less than five seconds, there's really no alternative.

Yes, it's the home of the last of the V8 Chargers, after all.

 

I stand corrected on that front.

We still have those, and they are a 'Hemi'. Not a true hemi, but what marketing named their unique design. We are even getting a supercharged one. I was actually thinking of the Ford Falcon that performance car buffs and journos have been hoping to get for decades.

 

Ah, yes. The V8s are quite bonkers. There are some (straight) 6 turbo Falcon utes (and sedans) which are pretty thirsty. Ford used to make V8 Falcons, but I think they're all blown 4.0 6s these days. And then there's a phenomenally inefficient 4.0 naturally-aspirated straight 6, the standard Falcon engine, and a new 2.0 turbo which is far less silly.

They are unbelievably comfortable cars.

As for the last of the V8 Chargers, we don't have them any more - it was a Mad Max reference.

 

Quite a good article on fuel-efficiency vs cost in today's Sydney Morning Herald.

How to beat rising petrol prices

 

One reason could be that the fuel economy of non-hybrids continues to improve, giving fuel-conscious buyers more options. Concurrently, Prius (and other hybrid?) mpg has essentially stood still for the last 5 years (excluding PIP of course). This could mean that hybrids are already more optimized while non-hybrids have more opportunities for improvement? US fleet economy is increasing, and given the percentage sales of hybrids, this increase has to be the result on non-hybrid improvements.

Sustainable Worldwide Transportation - Eco-Driving - sales-weighted fuel economy

 

Been years since I've seen the movie based in the post petroleum world where everyone runs around in large block sports cars.

That's pretty much it. While the Camry and Fusion(just not as much as claimed) hybrid has seen improvement in the generations, the Prius still remains the top mpg car. It is due for a remodel, but the improvement won't be as high as people hope. Then most of its improvements will be in the ICE.

 

Yes, it's been more than 20 years for me. That makes me feel old.

It's something I find a bit odd. Toyota and others seem to think that a hybrid on its own is enough. Normal ICE cars are getting aluminium body panels, turbos, superchargers, and other things that continue to improve performance. Hybrids don't.

What could Toyota do with Prius economy if they:

• Replaced the steel body panels with aluminium ones?
• Used a 1.3 turbo instead of a normally-aspirated 1.8?
• Looked at the VW option of both supercharging and turbocharging? (I know VW's 1.4 twincharge wasn't the most reliable engine in the world, but I'm sure Toyota could do a better job.)

I'm sure there's more they could do, too.

 

The hood and hatch are already aluminum. More would shave some weight, but is it enough to justify the cost. Toyota did go into a partnership BMW over fuel cells to gain access to their carbon fiber expertise. Saving weight is always a consideration during the design process at this point.

Does Toyota have a tiny block turbos in any of their cars. Some still reliability concerns in regards to turbos here. Toyota's first fuel economy turbo in a hybrid might give them more excuse to stick with a regular car. More importantly, will the turbo provide any benefit in a full hybrid.

Turbos increase power and low end torque. When looking to improve fuel economy, this allows engine downsizing. Keep the car out of boost, and reap the benefit of the smaller displacement. The boost provides the minimum performance that customers expect. The Prius already does this with the battery and M/Gs. A turbo might allow a smaller ICE if engine bay space is an issue, but the benefits of a turbo and hybridization overlap. I guess it would depend on the details of the specific engines as to whether worthwhile.

With the traction pack at the ECM's disposal, an electric supercharger would seem to be the better choice over a turbo. No lag, and it can be left off. Such has when there is plenty of SOC, and have the motor provide all the low end torque.

With the VW, it is a mild hybrid, and the turbo might be supplementing a smaller motor. Then for plug ins, a turbo might be better running at a set rpm during serial operation. Then, depending on EV range, a turbo might be a better choice even if it doesn't save more fuel because of packaging within the car.

 

I get that. But perhaps it would be worthwhile for some sort of halo car. Either that, or just making it expensive. But Audi and Jaguar manage all-aluminium bodies on cars that don't cost that much more than the top end of Toyota's hybrid range and the middle of Lexus' hybrid range.

Toyota subsidiary Daihatsu has quite a few turbocharged 660cc cars, doesn't it?

That, I suspect, is a very good point.

I'd have thought that a turbo and an electric motor were complementary - the electric motor could cover turbo lag.

You make an excellent point about a turbo on a constant-rev PHEV.

 

The next F150 will be nearly all aluminum. Just the ladder frame and bed liner will remain steel. Don't recall the exact number, but it saved 600 or more pounds in weight. I don't think the Prius would experience as dramatic weight loss going all aluminum considering it already makes use of the metal. I'm sure Toyota is considering it. Along with more high strength steel, magnesium alloys, and even carbon fiber. All the companies are going to be trying to save weight these days.

That would be interesting in a hybrid. I don't think they'll do it because the US is a big Prius market, and we think 1L is tiny.

The range extender on the Audi A1 PHV prototypes was a 250cc rotary. Hybrid mode was pure serial so they could have it running in a very limited set of rpms.

They have gotten good at limiting turbo lag. The only time I notice it is when going for medium acceleration from a full stop, I think. This is my first turbo and the engine is also 400cc smaller than anything I've driven before. The motor could cover that short amount of time, which might be VW's reasoning with their mild system. They could even be letting the lag time increase to allow the ICE to run under little boost for as much as possible. The boost can negate a gasoline engines pumping losses, but once the pressure reaches the point of pushing more air in, more fuel also gets injected.

So a turbo or supercharger might be a good match for a mild system. For a system in which the car can go EV at city speeds for about a mile, the motor and charger torque overlap by more than a little. The benefits of the boost might only come into play at highway speeds for such designs. If packaging or NVH isn't an issue, why add the expense of a turbo? Perhaps weight savings?

 

Nothing like a gas price spike to change the trend. Sooner or later it will happen...and we know the public reaction.

 

Putin and NK will rattle their swords and OPEC will yell for another embargo soon enough.