Hi,

A variation on a theme, I've added the top 10 selling gas vehicles for January 2009 and combined them with the hybrid sales gotten from GreenCarCongress.com:

What this chart tells me is:

• Prius is in the mainstream - the numbers and location relative to the top 10 gas vehicles sold in January 2009, the Prius has arrived in that pool.
• Insight goal is mainstream pool - looking at the numbers, 40 MPG at $20k, Honda is trying to eat into that big slug of gas only vehicles. It is more likely a Corolla killer than a Prius killer.
• Ford Fusion good but too high - looking at these numbers and as much as I like the Ford Fusion, it is still too high to go mainstream. It will join the working hybrid group and be an honored member but it isn't mainstream, top 10 this year.
• Pickups are the target - they continue to lead USA sales with lowest costs yet abysmal mileage. The first pickup that is under $20k with mileage greater than 20 MPG is going to 'clean the clock!'

We're hybrid owners, Prius specific, and for good reasons tend to focus on our special interest. But it turns out there is a larger automotive market out there. Sometimes it is good to step back and see the big picture. <grins>

Bob Wilson

Its fantastic post this for this posting i love this post.. its helpful in future

It is good to step back and see the big picture. As you mentioned the Honda Insight is not targeted at the Prius, it is targeted at compact gasoline cars. (Focus, Corolla, Sentra, Mazda 3, Scions, etc) The Insight will have no problem capturing 100,000 units per year in the compact car class. That is why I don't see Toyota factoring the Insight in when they price the 3G Prius, they are two very different classes of vehicles.

I also don't think the Ford Fusion Hybrid was ever intended to be mainstream. The Ford Fusion as a whole is, but not the hybrid version. Ford will sell a limited number and at a premium. It will be volume limited to maintain enough interest to sell without discounts. This is the same thing they have done with the Escape Hybrid. Ford sold 20K in 2005, 22.5 in 2006, and 25K in 2007. Even as they are putting $2000 on the hood of gasoline Escapes, the hybrids sell at full price. (Honda has done the same thing with the Civic Hybrid, selling ~32,000 per year of the latest generation)

Ford has been clear that they are not betting on hybrids as the future of their model lineup. Instead they are focusing on smaller engines with direct-injection and turbocharging (ECO-Boost). For the longer term they are working on adding full EV's. Ford has announced an EV version of the Transit will be available for fleet sales in 2010 and a EV version of the next generation Focus for sale to the public in 2011. Ford continues to dabble in the Hybrid market to keep up their public image and keep abreast of technology. From a research standpoint there is no benefit to selling 100K vehicles vs 20K vehicles.

Ford's stated reason for focusing on EV's instead of a PHEV like the Chevy Volt is because an EV will be simpler and less expensive.

If the world were awash with large capacity, rechargable batteries, I would agree. However, I still perceive batteries as being a limiting technology ... for now. This is my basic assumption that may change in a year or two.

Today, every EV consumes the battery capacity of 3-4 hybrids and puts it into a single vehicle. This may change someday but the resources needed for the gasoline and transmission part of the hybrid are not the same resources needed for the electric battery part. So I see every Fisker and Tesla as 'there goes 3-4 unbuilt hybrids.' They are priced so high yet deliver so little. That may change someday but it is the world I see in February 10, 2009.

Bob Wilson

I agree right now. However, battery companies are working to perfect L-ion battery chemistries. Once the technology is developed manufacturing is simply a matter of building factories.

These initial EV's aren't going to be high volume vehicles, again just enough to test the technology in the real world. I don't' expect to see a mainstream EV until the 2012 to 2015 timeframe.

The Ford Transit EV really intrigues me. It is a rather small but very functional vehicle. Yes, it is a big box, but that isn't really an issue around town at low speeds.

I don't know - I see a lot of Prius owners as people who want best-in-class fuel economy but also who normally only carry 1-2 people but want the capability to carry 4 when needed.

The difference between low 40s and high 40s fuel economy is not a whole lot in the big picture - but a $3-4000 reduction in base price is significant - especially at a time where people are worried about their bottom line.

For example - I'm likely to be in the market for a fuel efficient vehicle to replace our other car a Subaru Impreza WRX. This gets driven for my daily commute and while normally it's just me in the car, I do frequently need to carry up to 4 passengers. I don't need the room the Prius has, so the Insight would be perfect - but if the Insight didn't exist, I'd likely get another Prius. And when I consider that the Insight will be considerably cheaper, that just about seals the deal.

My experience has been that most people have a set size and price of a vehicle when they go shopping. A lot of times people will get moved up to a more expensive or larger vehicle when they go to a dealership. I don't known anyone that moved down.

For example someone goes to the Toyota dealership looking to buy a Corolla. The salesman convinces them for just $XX a month more you could have this Camry. The buyer either stand firm or gives in an buys the more expensive car. I've never know someone that went looking for a Corolla and the salesman convinced them they should buy a Yaris instead.

I had this happen when I went to a Toyota dealership to buy a Tacoma. The salesman tried to sell me Tundra. The same thing happened to my mother-in-law when she bought her Ford Escape. The salesmen tried to sell her an Explorer.

Right, but we're not talking about two cars available at the same dealer. We're talking about the Insight and the Prius. Last time I checked they were manufactured by Honda and Toyota. The only time you're going to find them on the same lot is in the used-car section.

The same principal applies:

• Someone looking to buy a full size truck doesn't shop compact trucks.
• Someone looking for a $25,000 sedan doesn't look at $18K sedans.
• Someone looking for a mid-size sedan doesn't look at compact sedans.

Yes, there are some criteria that may cause people to shop multiple classes and prices of cars and fuel economy is one. I just don't see the Insight and Prius being the major competitors.

Regardless of what people tell pollsters, I still think image is the number one thing that sells cars. People see a car they like and find reasons to justify why they need it.

chemistry

Doug Coleman told me that Toyota has the chemistry, the hard part is building the factories. Small manufacturing defects can lead to catastrophic failures, just ask Sony. Now imagine an EV sized L-ion battery. And you think driving around with a tank of gasoline is a bomb?

Great graphics but I will admit completely that I just cant track anything or any subject with those charts. Great effort but very, very confusing.