June 2014 - Hybrid Dashboard Report (four months)

	model	Jun_14	May_14	Apr_14	Mar_14
1	Toyota Prius Liftback	11277	15944	10298	10917
2	Toyota Camry Hybrid	3874	5199	3916	4287
3	Toyota Prius C	3291	4590	3569	3685
4	Jetta Diesel	3286	3552	4355	4052
5	Ford Fusion Hybrid	3016	4641	3537	3903
6	Toyota Prius V	2510	3567	2403	2528
7	Nissan Leaf	2347	3117	2088	2507
8	Passat Diesel	2316	3172	3923	4549
9	Ford C-Max Hybrid	1952	2051	1586	1685
10	Fusion Energi	1939	1342	743	899
11	Chevrolet Volt	1777	1684	1548	1478
12	Toyota Prius Plug In	1571	2692	1741	1452
13	Sonata	1523	2094	2055	2430
14	Lexus CT200h	1521	1762	1054	1480
15	Avalon Hybrid	1437	1957	1522	1600
16	Tesla Model S*	1400	1400	1400	1300
17	Accord Hybrid	1135	1530	1442	1346
18	ES Hybrid	1102	1408	1242	1384
19	5-Series Diesel	1058	389	294	281
20	Kia Optima Hybrid	1006	735	1060	1879
21	Ford C-Max Energi	988	782	525	610
22	3-Series Diesel	972	1189	929	777
23	RX 400 / 450 h	872	837	387	852
24	XV Crosstrek Hybrid	788	1003
25	MKZ	787	1128	1047	1411
26	Q5 Diesel	627	629	532	519
27	Lacrosse Hybrid	610	772	716	536
28	BMW X5 Diesel	539	712	724	735
29	Chevrolet Cruze Diesel	468	511	491	644
30	Q7 Diesel	450	408	410	411
31	Honda Civic Hybrid	410	415	450	338
32	A6 Diesel	398	373	303	249
33	i3	358	336
34	ML Class Diesel	357	434	438	457
35	GLK Class Diesel	340	356	369	411
36	Honda Insight	333	493	441	410
37	Honda CR-Z	302	389	369	354
38	Highlander Hybrid	280	355	418	333
39	forTwo EV	278	206	203	186
40	Touareg Diesel	277	304	319	285
41	GL-Class Diesel	276	447	434	396
42	Q50 Hybrid	242	294	263	380
43	Golf Diesel	237	271	479	515
44	E-Class Diesel	236	247	264	251
45	X3 Diesel	221	174
46	Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid	206	209	149	276
47	Ford Focus EV	197	177	116	177
48	Pathfinder Hybrid*	191	238	183	237
49	Cayenne Diesel	184	270	475	562
50	Beetle Diesel	167	159	184	212
51	500E	166	167	152	166
52	Grand Cherokee Diesel	151	181
53	Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid	111	53	63	56
54	QX60 Hybrid*	108	137	114	167
55	A8 Diesel	105	78	52	64
56	ELR	97	52	61	81
57	Honda Civic	94	78	115	62
58	Toyota RAV4 EV	91	149	69	73
59	A7 Diesel	89	99	90	72
60	Spark	85	182	97	108
61	Regal Hybrid	75	64	41	95
62	Cayenne Hybrid	72	75	84	96
63	Impala Hybrid	63	58	34	49
64	Malibu Hybrid	62	94	130	191
65	ILX Hybrid	44	63	49	46
66	Fit EV	38	33	50	37
67	Accord Plug In	28	46	37	18
68	i	22	35	12	24
69	Audi Q5 Hybrid	19	25	21	35
70	ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih)	18	12	6	12
71	Lexus GS 450h	15	9	35	25
72	E400H	13	16	39	9
73	ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih)	13	13	13	27
74	M Hybrid	11	12	11	19
75	Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid	10	10	5	20
76	Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid	8	4
77	Cadillac Escalade Hybrid	8	2	2	1
78	7-Series ActiveHybrid	6	5	6	4
79	Volkswagen Touareg Hybrid	6	3	3	1
80	S-Class Diesel	5	12	27	20
81	LS 600h	5	5	9	7
82	GMC Yukon Hybrid	3	2	7	5
83	ML450H	0	7

Source: Jeff Cobb's Hybrid Market Dashboard - HybridCars.com (well worth reading!)

• Lower gas prices are impacting sales
• Jetta TDI did 'less bad'
• Passat TDI did 'more bad' (note: sticker MPG is ~15-20% too low)

Charts to follow:





Bob Wilson

 

So today I saw $3.25/gal and the next station was $3.37. I can remember when gas had to be $3/gal for automag writers to claim a Prius would make sense.

Bob Wilson

 

The two earlier charts were confusing but I noticed it stemmed from three diesel entries. So I took out the Jetta, Passat, and 5-Series Diesel:

Now it makes sense, the four month trend in hybrids and plug-ins has been flat. The Ford Energi did well but this could have been increased production meeting demand.

I took out three diesels so the hybrids and plug-in trends would make sense but they have their own dynamic:

• Jetta TDI - suffered less loss than the rest of the efficient market. Popular? Sales initiative? Other?
• Passat TDI - took a big hit. We know a new model has been announced but is it on the lots? If on the lots, this would be bad news. But if just the effect of announcing a new model, we've seen that pattern before.
• 5-Series Diesel - welcome to the party, it looks like 'the boat arrived.'

Perhaps some of our diesel advocates have more information?

Bob Wilson

 

My interest is in looking at early trends, the last four months, while removing as much of the noise as possible. These standout:

• Volt sales oscillation - it looked manic - depressive. But looking at the last four months, the sales trend was obvious. In contrast the Plug-in Prius were steady and rising.
• September 2013 collapse - yet there was nothing in the news describing what was going on other than shutting down the Federal Government for two weeks. Even now, we're 9 months afterwards and this last month's dip still has be scratching my head.
• New car bump - typically 2-3 months, the initial sales release sees a boost that soon settles. Without the four months, it is difficult to tell when a new model settles to the steady-state sales rate.
• Sales campaigns - the brilliant VW "fuel card" was evident in their sales up-tick.
• Quantitative analysis - some were fond of comparing all diesels, pickups and delivery van, sales numbers against the hybrids and claiming 'no body wants them.' But we knew, thanks to Jeff Cobb's Hybrid Dashboard data that it was a 'stretching' reality.

People are funny in that some of us 'see numbers' and others need a visual aid. But the four month provides a balance between annual sales versus monthly noise.

Bob Wilson

 

Sorry, I ran into a performance problem last night and an edit was lost. So I went to bed thinking it would better this morning:
* * * Reconstruction of edit * * *
My interest is in looking at early trends, the last four months, while removing as much of the noise as possible. These standout:


Volt sales oscillation - it looked manic - depressive. But looking over the last four months, the sales trend was obvious. In contrast the Plug-in Prius were steady and rising but not high enough to meet the 1,000 car, lower threshold. This was also when I started combining the hatchback sales with the top selling models:

The liftback sales were also a good indication of overall fuel-efficient vehicle sales.


September 2013 collapse - yet there was nothing in the news describing what was going on other than shutting down the Federal Government for two weeks. Even now, we're 9 months afterwards and this last month's dip still has be scratching my head. For this we need to look at the summary for all the data:

At first, I thought we might have gotten back to levels nearly 14 months earlier. Then two months of additional data:

Here I've edited the chart to put the Liftback on the left y-axis and the rest on the right. But the June sales suggest there is another independent factor impacting sales. We're still at least in the early 2013 data, a good thing but with one twist. Notice the 'density' of the top selling models in the most recent data. To me this suggests a base, a foundation of efficient car owners is growing across multiple models. This is a good thing.

New car bump - typically 2-3 months, the initial sales release sees a boost that soon settles. Without the four months, it is difficult to tell when a new model settles to the steady-state sales rate. This one is harder to show in the data but does show up in the 'legend' ranking. The Honda Accord was in the middle but has now fallen to the lower part of the list. I will have to think about how to graphically show this pattern.


Sales campaigns - the brilliant VW "fuel card" was evident in their sales up-tick.

Quantitative analysis - some (aka., Ward's Autoline Daily) were fond of comparing all diesels, pickups and delivery van, sales numbers along with the Jetta and Passat against the hybrids and claiming 'no body wants them (hybrids).' But we knew, thanks to Jeff Cobb's Hybrid Dashboard data that his numbers were 'stretching' reality. When I posted the Jetta and Passat numbers, they fessed up to including diesel pickups and delivery vehicles. They also helped me understand how many Prius pioneers have moved on to the plug-ins: Leaf, Prius Plug-In, Tesla, and Volt. Many still visit but their focus, rightfully, is on their current ride.

* * * completed earlier edit * * *

Looking at the last four months is not the only way to ferret out patterns in the data but it is the way my mind works. I noticed a lot of folks like Jeff Cobb compare the current month data to a year ago and last month. I find this is too 'noisey' and leads to pattern claims that disappear within a couple of months. Still, I'm OK with alternate approaches. A craps player, I'm always amused at how our species can 'see patterns in random data' when the true pattern is 'the house wins in the end.'

Bob Wilson

 

	model	Jun 2014	Jun 2013	Cal Yr. 2014	Cal Yr. 2013
1	Prius Sedan	11277	14066	63037	76809
2	Prius V	2510	2987	14481	18616
3	Prius C	3291	3442	20283	20575
4	Prius Phv	1571	584	9300	4214

Source: Toyota June Sales Report

It pretty well tells its own tale.

Bob Wilson

 

There will be two more months, July and August, of sad news. But come September, we'll see the big up-tick . . . baring something impacting our economy.

Bob Wilson