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March 2014 - Hybrid Dashboard Report

Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by bwilson4web, Apr 2, 2014.

  1. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    I'll get the table analysis in later tonight but:
    Source: March 2014 Dashboard - HybridCars.com
    Column 1
    0 [tr][th]model[th]Mar_14[th]Feb_14[th]Jan_14[th]Dec_13
    1 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius Liftback[td2]10917[td2]7396[td2]7205[td2]9881
    2 [tr][td2]Passat Diesel[td2]4549[td2]1696[td2]1524[td2]2209
    3 [tr][td2]Toyota Camry Hybrid[td2]4287[td2]2517[td2]1978[td2]2726
    4 [tr][td2]Jetta Diesel[td2]4052[td2]2073[td2]2026[td2]2894
    5 [tr][td2]Ford Fusion Hybrid[td2]3903[td2]3096[td2]2607[td2]2768
    6 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius C[td2]3685[td2]2681[td2]2467[td2]2810
    7 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius V[td2]2528[td2]1743[td2]1730[td2]2110
    8 [tr][td2]Nissan Leaf[td2]2507[td2]1425[td2]1252[td2]2529
    9 [tr][td2]Sonata[td2]2430[td2]1907[td2]1340[td2]2121
    10 [tr][td2]Kia Optima Hybrid[td2]1879[td2]960[td2]777[td2]990
    11 [tr][td2]Ford C-Max Hybrid[td2]1685[td2]1301[td2]947[td2]1201
    12 [tr][td2]Avalon Hybrid[td2]1600[td2]613[td2]970[td2]1480
    13 [tr][td2]Lexus CT200h[td2]1480[td2]1230[td2]1290[td2]1787
    14 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Volt[td2]1478[td2]1210[td2]918[td2]2392
    15 [tr][td2]Toyota Prius Plug In[td2]1452[td2]1041[td2]803[td2]919
    16 [tr][td2]MKZ[td2]1411[td2]919[td2]726[td2]754
    17 [tr][td2]ES Hybrid[td2]1384[td2]945[td2]866[td2]1706
    18 [tr][td2]Accord Hybrid[td2]1346[td2]910[td2]525[td2]426
    19 [tr][td2]Tesla Model S*[td2]1300[td2]1400[td2]1300[td2]1700
    20 [tr][td2]Fusion Energi[td2]899[td2]779[td2]533[td2]791
    21 [tr][td2]RX 400 / 450 h[td2]852[td2]621[td2]637[td2]1153
    22 [tr][td2]3-Series Diesel[td2]777[td2]916[td2]486[td2]1322
    23 [tr][td2]BMW X5 Diesel[td2]735[td2]501[td2]317[td2]7
    24 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Cruze Diesel[td2]644[td2]508[td2]357[td2]495
    25 [tr][td2]Ford C-Max Energi[td2]610[td2]552[td2]471[td2]827
    26 [tr][td2]Cayenne Diesel[td2]562[td2]350[td2]268[td2]276
    27 [tr][td2]Lacrosse Hybrid[td2]536[td2]506[td2]445[td2]447
    28 [tr][td2]Q5 Diesel[td2]519[td2]422[td2]483[td2]768
    29 [tr][td2]Golf Diesel[td2]515[td2]366[td2]386[td2]434
    30 [tr][td2]ML Class Diesel[td2]457[td2]364[td2]267[td2]458
    31 [tr][td2]Q7 Diesel[td2]411[td2]310[td2]291[td2]655
    32 [tr][td2]GLK Class Diesel[td2]411[td2]298[td2]259[td2]429
    33 [tr][td2]Honda Insight[td2]410[td2]339[td2]317[td2]418
    34 [tr][td2]GL-Class Diesel[td2]396[td2]415[td2]312[td2]346
    35 [tr][td2]Q50 Hybrid[td2]380[td2]328[td2]59[td2]91
    36 [tr][td2]Honda CR-Z[td2]354[td2]318[td2]267[td2]384
    37 [tr][td2]Honda Civic Hybrid[td2]338[td2]443[td2]439[td2]712
    38 [tr][td2]Highlander Hybrid[td2]333[td2]105[td2]145[td2]272
    39 [tr][td2]Touareg Diesel[td2]285[td2]195[td2]192[td2]233
    40 [tr][td2]5-Series Diesel[td2]281[td2]576[td2]241[td2]471
    41 [tr][td2]Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid[td2]276[td2]232[td2]224[td2]360
    42 [tr][td2]E-Class Diesel[td2]251[td2]229[td2]204[td2]306
    43 [tr][td2]A6 Diesel[td2]249[td2]202[td2]205[td2]336
    44 [tr][td2]Pathfinder Hybrid*[td2]237[td2]191[td2]265[td2]334
    45 [tr][td2]Beetle Diesel[td2]212[td2]123[td2]155[td2]174
    46 [tr][td2]Malibu Hybrid[td2]191[td2]202[td2]232[td2]266
    47 [tr][td2]forTwo EV[td2]186[td2]122[td2]97[td2]167
    48 [tr][td2]Focvs EV[td2]177[td2]129[td2]100[td2]158
    49 [tr][td2]QX60 Hybrid*[td2]167[td2]135[td2]238[td2]374
    50 [tr][td2]500E*[td2]166[td2]40[td2]35[td2]50
    51 [tr][td2]Spark[td2]108[td2]71[td2]93[td2]76
    52 [tr][td2]Cayenne Hybrid[td2]96[td2]64[td2]45[td2]55
    53 [tr][td2]Regal Hybrid[td2]95[td2]88[td2]78[td2]93
    54 [tr][td2]ELR[td2]81[td2]58[td2]41[td2]6
    55 [tr][td2]Toyota RAV4 EV[td2]73[td2]101[td2]63[td2]28
    56 [tr][td2]A7 Diesel[td2]72[td2]55[td2]70[td2]104
    57 [tr][td2]A8 Diesel[td2]64[td2]59[td2]44[td2]92
    58 [tr][td2]Honda Civic[td2]62[td2]37[td2]66[td2]118
    59 [tr][td2]Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid[td2]56[td2]57[td2]141[td2]47
    60 [tr][td2]Impala Hybrid[td2]49[td2]38[td2]34[td2]35
    61 [tr][td2]ILX Hybrid[td2]46[td2]42[td2]27[td2]44
    62 [tr][td2]Fit EV[td2]37[td2]33[td2]30[td2]51
    63 [tr][td2]Audi Q5 Hybrid[td2]35[td2]24[td2]36[td2]43
    64 [tr][td2]ActiveHybrid 3 (335ih)[td2]27[td2]18[td2]9[td2]87
    65 [tr][td2]Lexus GS 450h[td2]25[td2]23[td2]30[td2]44
    66 [tr][td2]i[td2]24[td2]3[td2]1[td2]11
    67 [tr][td2]S-Class Diesel[td2]20[td2]6[td2]31[td2]36
    68 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Tahoe Hybrid[td2]20[td2]6[td2]8[td2]31
    69 [tr][td2]M Hybrid[td2]19[td2]14[td2]44[td2]33
    70 [tr][td2]Accord Plug In[td2]18[td2]24[td2]27[td2]38
    71 [tr][td2]ActiveHybrid 5 (535ih)[td2]12[td2]18[td2]22[td2]52
    72 [tr][td2]E400H[td2]9[td2]15[td2]23[td2]20
    73 [tr][td2]LS 600h[td2]7[td2]11[td2]11[td2]6
    74 [tr][td2]GMC Yukon Hybrid[td2]5[td2]2[td2]4[td2]19
    75 [tr][td2]7-Series ActiveHybrid[td2]4[td2]3[td2]3[td2]5
    76 [tr][td2]Volkswagen Touareg Hybrid[td2]4[td2][td2]3[td2]2
    77 [tr][td2]Cadillac Escalade Hybrid[td2]1[td2]4[td2]9[td2]7
    78 [tr][td2]Chevrolet Silverado Hybrid[td2]1[td2]3[td2]1[td2]5
    79 [tr][td2]S400HV Hybrid[td2]1[td2]2[td2]1[td2]2
    80 [tr][td2]GMC Sierra Hybrid[td2][td2][td2][td2]1
    Source: Jeff Cobb's Hybrid Market Dashboard - HybridCars.com (well worth reading!)
    The Prius hatchback has lost a lot since September 2013 but that could be due to a lot of factors:
    • Time for a model upgrade - a similar effect happened with the NHW20 when the ZVW30 release was approaching.
    • EVs are a real alternative - Tesla and Leaf are real and in the show rooms. So EV 'wishing' can be replaced by EV or EV-engined options. Used to be the number of real hybrids was thin.
    One more prediction, the hybrid skeptics will be touting the lower Prius sales as "at last the end has arrived." FYI, VW finally decided to sell in March and it shows. Whether or not it is sustained is yet to be seen. One month is not a trend.

    Bob Wilson
     
  2. PriusC_Commuter

    PriusC_Commuter Active Member

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    2014-sales-chart-mar-v8[1].png
    This is quite surprising to me. Considering the uproar about HOV Stickers running out in California as well as California Rebate running out at the end of March, I would have strongly expected these numbers would show a large increase in PHEV sales for the month of March, whether temporary or not. Instead, it appears as though the Leaf has had the strongest month by far compared with the rest of plug-ins. Granted, this data does not show us what percentage of those vehicles were sold in California vs the rest of the country, but I still find the results surprising.

    Source: March 2014 Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Report Card
     
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  3. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    Personal example: We originally wanted & tried to get (either off-lot or special-order) a 2014 Plug-in Prius, but we had to 'settle' for a regular 2014 Prius·4 instead because of the following reasons:

    1) NO AVAILABILITY -- Although AZ was (past-tense) both a CARB-state and a Toyota-designated PiP sales region, ALL AZ dealerships ceased PiP sales back in 2012 when AZ backed out of CARB. None of the AZ dealerships that I contacted had one they could SHOW us.

    2) NO SELECTION -- Our vehicle 'wish list' was simple: (a) light EXTERIOR color; (b) light INTERIOR color; and (c) LEATHER, not cloth or plastic, upholstery. Unfortunately, the PiP only comes with BLACK interior--which is not a smart (hotter than hell) choice in AZ summers! And, it only comes with CLOTH upholstery...even the 'faux' SofTex™ isn't available.

    So-o-o-o, we 'settled' for a regular Prius·4 in Classic Silver, with Misty Gray interior, with SofTex (imitation leather) upholstery. We're happy, but NOT as happy as we WANTED to be...and Toyota lost a higher-priced sale to a lower-priced sale in the process. And, lastly, our small effort to lessen the hydrocarbon connection and move forward toward (more) electrical energy was totally thwarted.

    We can't BUY what isn't available!
     
  4. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Re: Leaf- ...one analysis said Nissan always has big sales incentives/push in March due to end of fiscal year for the company.

    Re: Volt..I saw one article that said over 40% Volts are owned by Californians...that makes sense as I calculated 42% of PHEV were sold in CA for 2013...so must mean about 42% PiPs also owned in CA.

    Re: PiP..nice effort to pick up last CA green stickers...but how can we keep it up with loss of green stickers? Does this signal time for 50-state roll-out?
     
  5. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    another very disappointing month for hybrids. hopefully, march is the end of the polar vortex effect, but i suspect, gas prices have been steady and people now see them as low and no need to buy efficient rides.
     
  6. 70AARCUDA

    70AARCUDA Active Member

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    Gas prices aren't GOOD steady here!

    All winter, they've been steadily creeping UP from $3.09 to $3.39, roughly +10¢ per gallon per month!
     
  7. PriusC_Commuter

    PriusC_Commuter Active Member

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    January 27th was the lowest I filled up gas this winter at $3.359 per gallon, and today gas is already at $3.859 per gallon. And that's buying exclusively from Costco. The only place I've seen this low at the same time has been Arco. I've already seen around $4.15 per gallon around me.
     
  8. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Here are the graphs:
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
    It appears:
    • ~$3.50/gal - the threshold between good, efficient-car sales and crappy
    • crude vs gas price difference - this can not last or the rest of the world is getting really screwed at the pump
    Bob Wilson
     
  9. telmo744

    telmo744 HSD fanatic

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    "is getting"? :ROFLMAO:

    Never stopped getting screwed, since 2008... :cry:
     
  10. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Gasoline is only a fraction of the crude. There is also diesel, other fuel oils, and tar. Most of the crude value is probably in the solvents. It is using some of those solvents to boost octane in premium fuels that raises the price.

    The Camry Hybrid along with the Passat and Jetta diesels leap frogged the competition there. Really nice incentives?
     
  11. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I suspect a much larger percentage of PiP are sold in California.
    Toyota still refuses to sell the PiP nationwide. Volt is sold in every state. So the comparison really can't be made.
    Just as a WAG, I would think it is at least 60%.
     
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  12. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    Good thought! Well if it wasn't 60% in January, it is now...I think Dianne Whitmire is partially personally responsible. She still has about 160 or so with the green stickers...
     
  13. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    People in Europe and Japan get screwed at the pump, it has much to do with their oil policies. On the bad side they have refining restrictions/taxes so they can't switch to heavier or more sour crude. This creates a refining gap in prices, but does nothing for the environment, as this crude simply gets refined in other countries that can handle it, namely china, brazil, and the US. Europe then buys refined products from the crude they have legislated against.

    The other side is fuel taxes, and here Europe and the US have done poor jobs. Europe, or many countries in Europe, tax diesel less, which has caused people to buy more pre euro-6 diesel light vehicles, making unhealthy pollution higher. They have taxed all fuels higher than the US though, which has pressured people to use less. In effect long term the US has been screwing itself. Higher gas prices in the mid 90s, would have led to a more efficient fleet now.

    A good measure is how much of income is speant on gas.
    Bloomberg Gas Price Ranking
     
  14. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Caution as one month does not a trend make. The Volt has suffered a lot of volatility . . . at one point making me wonder what the heck GM was playing at. Also VW is offering that fuel card which goes a long way to softening the higher, USA diesel fuel price.

    Bob Wilson
     
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  15. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Yes. I was just wondering if there was a explanation beyond just because for last month. I had forgotten about the fuel card bit VW was advertizing.
     
  16. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    Normally I would have put bullets, the Bob's view, below this chart. Here they are, a little late:
    [​IMG]
    • VW's fuel card works! Faced with higher pump prices, the VW fuel card offer takes a lot of that sting out for new car purchasers. I have my doubts about the sustainability but offering a discount in a diesel card, clever.
    • Good progress: Leaf, C-Max, Sonata and MKZ. It looks like the C-Max black-eye is healing.
    • Welcome to the party, Honda Accord. It has three months of over 1,000 units per month and the sales trend is looking good. It has been a while since Honda had a serious contender on the market.
    My eyes still see these groups:
    • Market Leader: Prius Hatchback - weaker than before but still twice the sales of the next contender. It used to be nearly three times.
    • Four Horsemen: Camry, Jetta, Prius c, Fusion - these have been the next group, used to be it took at least three to equal the Market Leader but now any two can match the leader. The Passat is visiting during the fuel card promotion but we'll see.
    • 1K Party Pack: those crossing the 1,000 unit per month threshold. There is a lot of volatility here and in some models (i.e., Volt) a lot of unexplained random variations. It is also where declining models spend a little time before falling off the invite list.
    • Experimental, Retiring, and 'Could if I wanted':- when units fall below 1,000 per month, we're seeing experiments, retiring means a technology that didn't scale well, and those suggesting a 'halo', which has been used as an accusation against the successful ones.
    Monitoring hybrid sales can look like an attempt to justify our previous purchasing decisions. It is also a 'crowd sourced' view of fuel-efficient, technology . . . folks voting with wallets and family budgets. It is also a 'horse race' and who doesn't love a good race. Jeff Cobb does the heavy lifting, collecting the latest monthly metrics and these monthly postings are 'the racing form.'

    Bob Wilson
     
  17. bwilson4web

    bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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    A small bump but Autoline Daily is spouting their nonsense about hybrid sales . . . again. So I've added a few comments:
    AD #1348 – GM Legal Dept. in Hot Water, Billion $ Loan Program Back, Hybrid Sales Down Again – Autoline Daily

    I have no illusions about whether that crowd will be read them or not but then the AutoLine Daily crowd are really not future candidates for the Prius (unless gasoline hits say $<TBD impossible> per gallon.) After all, the AutoLine daily reports are on 'expense account' and I suspect don't really have to pay for the fuel burned to write their opinions. In contrast, we have to pay with after-tax money for our gas.

    Bob Wilson
     
  18. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I would slice and dice a little differently. The prius liftback/phv is the clear leader, but the next group has some market twins and some combined hv and phv that should make the cut.
    Sonata/Optima
    Avalon/ESh
    c-max/c-max energi
    If we group this way we can take a group of contenders that sold 5000-9000 units for the quarter

    Contenders
    camry, fusion hv and energi/MKZ, sonata/optima, prius c, prius v, Avalon/ESh, c-max hv and energi, leaf, passat tdi, jetta tdi. 10 families of cars, 8 hybrid/phev and 2 diesel.


    Then we have the next pack, encompassing a lot of models. The most interesting of these is the volt, which occasionaly makes the contenders grouping. What is up with the volt? There are a lot of things. First is seasonality, the first quarter is the worst quarter for plug-ins. But there are other factors here too, gm has consistantly mismanaged inventory levels, blowing out december, then having low inventory in january. There may be a recall effect also, gm looks very bad in its handling of ignition switches bringing up whether the car maker should have been bailed out at all. The negative feelings toward the car company may be hurting volt sales. GMs perception problems seemed to help ford plug-ins and the prius phvthe most. Ford climbed to the number 2 plug in maker in march. Toyota killed its sales over a year ago.

    March Plug-In Sales Increase By 17% - Smart ED Wins &quot;B Division&quot;
     
  19. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    did someone mention he picked up a hycam with a $4,000. incentive? i could be wrong, but if so, that would be huge.
     
  20. bisco

    bisco cookie crumbler

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    just anecdotal, but i've had more than one conversation with guzzler owners who have already bought into the energy independence hype. and, they think it's already here.