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Net effects of green energy and old coal on new electrical demand

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by austingreen, Mar 30, 2015.

  1. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    There have been numerous discussions about how to account for green house gas and unhealthy pollution from new demand on the grid especially plug-in vehicles. This stub is so that we have a place to discuss green house gas implications outside of the news discussions. Unhealthy pollution would be a different much shorter discussion.

    First some jargon and accronyms. Please let me know if you have more or different or better definitions.

    Renewables : Renewable electricity which includes solar, wind, geothermal, wave and small hydro.
    Green Choice: various programs that allow utility customers to purchase Renewables from their utility.
    RPS: Renewable portfolio Standard that requires utilities to build or buy certain amounts of renewable electricity. The type of renewable electricity is often specified in the RPS.
    GHG: grean house gas normally carbon dioxide or methane but other gasses contribute. Water vapor is a green house gas but not typically included in GHG.
    CO2e: The net effective greenhouse gases from exhaust (smokestack, tailpipe, or other) with non carbon dioxide gasses converted to an equivalent weight of carbon dioxide. This is typically measured in grams or killograms but ounces, pounds, or tons are also used.
    MPGe: Miles per gallon equivellant, or the miles the vehicles will travel from the equivellent energy of a gallon of gasoline at the plug or pump.. For electricity 33.7 kwh are used for the equivalent of 1 gallon of gasoline.
    MPGeC: Miles that can be traveled producing the same CO2e as a gallon of gasoline.
    Grid: The interconnection of power plants, transformers, and wiring that ends at plugs in houses and buildings. In the US and Canada there are two major grids, the Eastern and Western Grid, and power flows within each are fairly independent except for inter connects which provide a much smaller amount of power. Most of texas is on a separate grid Ercot, which is still fairly large, but is easier to upgrade and administer, as politics is in one state. Smaller independent grids are in Hawaii and Alaska. Power in each All together there are 26 regional grids in the US, but consumption and production here is more fungible with the major grid the regional grid. These regional grids can be further broken down to various portions of utilties serving local customers.
    Average emissions: This is taken for multiple grids, or and individual grid, or a regional grid, or utilities by dividing all its emissions during a year by all the the kwh it provides to plugs.
    Marginal emissions: This is a much more difficult calculation and tries to estimate how much higher emissions would be because of an action. Typically Large Hydro, Nuclear, and base line coal are not used when adding a load like an electric vehicle to the grid as these would run independantly of load. Time of charging is important here, and often entails mainly the additonal natural gas and coal to provide power to the lead.
    OCGT: Open cycle gas turbine, is an inexpensive way to add power to the grid. The turbine can quickly adjust to various loads and renwables on the grid, but efficiency is typically only about 35%.
    CCGT: Combined cycle gas turbine, is one of the most efficient ways to produce fossil fuel on the grid today. It includes both open-cycle gas turbines and a thermal turbine to achieve about 60% thermal efficiency in new plants, 50% in older ones. New fast cycling turbines can be as effective as OCGT for following loads.

    There are good green choice programs and bad. Good programs build new renewables for every kwh purchased. Poor programs may sell the same renewables to multiple people, or charge people for renewables that would have been built anyway. Renewable portfolio standards (RPS) are also building more renewables. Combined the good green energy programs and RPS are helping to retire old coal plants.

    Natural gas ccgt has been growing in the US since 1990. This has been the biggest switch on the US grid. Given the current regulatory environment in the US, ccgt should continue replacing coal.

    No new 30+ year old coal plants are being built in North America.
    How do EVs Compare with Gas-Powered Vehicles? Better Every Year…. - The Equation
    Global Warming Emissions and Fuel-Cost Savings of Electric Cars (2012)
     
    #1 austingreen, Mar 30, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2015
  2. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    From another thread:
    Wait, if a plugin owner buys the SREC paper they can claim to charge their car with renewable energy?
    Then those paying extra for renewable, should be getting the SREC. Unless the power company is deceitful. So they can claim to be using renewable for the car.
    A homeowner with a PV installation in SREC area can claim to be green if they don't sell their SRECs. If they aren't in a market with SREC, they then can't claim to be using renewable energy, even if their system produces more than they use in a given time frame?
    o_O
     
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  3. hill

    hill High Fiber Member

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    It's good that the grid issue gets separated out on the one hand. On the other hand, since most plug-in's are in Cali - and since we dont get renewable credits - that whole red hearing kinda becomes a moot point ... which was the point I'd hoped to put to bed.
    .
     
  4. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Good luck with that.:sneaky:
     
  5. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Yes, absolutely. Your solar kWh was used to charge your car before reaching the net meter and go out to the grid.

    Your car is powered by solar power and renewable clean when you charge at 1:45pm. However, your home cannot claim the same. Ditto if you charge at night to take advantage of lower price electricity.




    Straight from DOE:

    Renewable energy certificates (RECs), also known as renewable energy credits, green certificates, green tags, or tradable renewable certificates, represent the environmental attributes of the power produced from renewable energy projects and are sold separate from commodity electricity. Customers can buy green certificates whether or not they have access to green power through their local utility or a competitive electricity marketer. And they can purchase green certificates without having to switch electricity suppliers.
    If you are buying "green" electricity from utility company and you are not getting SREC, something funny is going on. You are likely getting the grid mix with a little more renewable added to raise the average.

    In the state with no SREC, you aren't required to register for SREC. I don't think there is a requirement to install a meter to track kWh solar production.

    Without SREC (measurement to verify), your PV system represent a tiny (anonymous) part of the entire regional grid.
    You are assuming solar kWh would magically replace fossil kWh. How can fossil power plant shut down if PV system owners consume fossil kWh at night?

    Another complication is the renewable power are funded by pretty much everybody. Utility bill has "renewable tax" included for the renewable share in the grid electricity. So, it is not only PV system owner but everyone has their share of "carbon free" electricity.

    My solar incentives are pretty much funded by my neighbors without PV systems. I can't take the ownership of carbon free claim unless I have the SREC.

    I gave it some thought into this discussion from the other thread.

    In term of energy, electricity is fungible but not in term of price or carbon footprint as cleaner electricity worth more.

    Therefore, you can claim your car is powered by the sun (energy) without the benefit of carbon-free renewable electricity (just the regional grid average).
     
    #5 usbseawolf2000, Apr 6, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2015
  6. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    We aren't talking about the grid, but the individual.

    The goal is to reduce carbon emissions, correct?

    One of the actions an individual can take to that affect is to install home PV. If their net consumption is zero or less compared to their solar production on a grid tied system, then their house hold electric is carbon free. The grid tied meter is measuring what goes in and what goes out. This includes any plugin miles if they have one. Whether or not they have REC slips for the solar generation.

    To say that they are not is removing one of the 'carrots' to get people to install PV. There are still other carrots, but one less could be influence their decision on how much PV capacity to install, or to even install at all. Which means less, or no, GHG emissions reduced for electric generation by the individual. Leaving a greater burden on the utility and government to reduce them.
     
  7. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I look at the tunnel vision on the individuals direct carbon use as strictly bragging rights.
    If you want to do what is best for society's GHG contribution over the long term, you won't use renewable energy during peak times, even if you can, and will shift your use to off peak, even if it isn't renewable.

    This will hold true until all new power production is renewable AND the shutting down fossil fuels plants is not slowed.

    This is simply because we don't want to add more power plants to the grid before absolutely necessary.

    If I can add my carbon free energy to the grid and help slow down the need for new power plants, that is a win.
    And if I added PV specifically as a result of getting a plugin vehicle, I consider that driving on sunshine even if I am not powering it directly off my own solar panels.
     
  8. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    I am not a big fan of saying EV is a boon for the environment (as per the UCS papers). I still postulate if we knew how much electricity say Volts and Tesla's were actually using in say Northeast's cold winters and hot summers, we would have a lot of CO2 generation. I realize some EV advocates are hyper-miling (not using much heat/AC) to maximize miles per electron, but that's a personal option.

    I'm not sure where EV-advocate Chelsea Sexton stands on it today, but she has previously said it's a mistake to try to say EV is greener due to emissions. She says the argument needs to be on quality of drive, and also she seems to support the avoidance of petroleum (energy-choice) argument. In CA we have some special smog issues, I assume CARB is correct in saying gotta have zero emissions cars in smog areas (but cars like Prius are getting so clean I am starting to get skeptical on the smog argument).
     
  9. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    I belive Hill is on Southern california Edison, and here are some of the numbers from that grid.
    Cleaner Power | Environment | About Us | Home - SCE

    RenewablePortfolioStandard

    Comparisons of Household Power Usage

    Reading between the data, updating 2012 percentages with 2013, looking at large hydro and coal from 2007, knowing the nuclear is shut down at san onofre, and filling the rest with natural gas we get

    65.4% natural gas
    8% coal (planned to be phased out, not building more 2007 number)
    5% large hydro (may have dropped in the drought 2007 number)
    1.5% Solar (2013)
    20.1% other renewable (2013)

    If we use the math in the last link, you will notice SCE power is now more carbon intense because of the closing of the nuclear plant. Grid losses may already be included but I counted 7% again I got 455 g CO2e /kwh. This is greater than the CARB number, but I think CARB does only CO2 and not other ghg in CO2e.

    On Hill's leaf if it is a 2011 and he gets 99 mpge (lower than a new model) that amounts to 155 g CO2e/mile even if he does not put up solar.

    Now Hill did put up solar, and lets assume the worst case alignment for solar, that he charges his leaf off-peak between mid-night and 6 am. This worst case alignment is actually best case for the grid.

    http://www.storagealliance.org/sites/default/files/Presentations/Energy%20Storage%20Cost%20Effectiveness%202013-09-23%20FINAL.pdf
    Tons of CO2 per MWH are between 0.63-0.72 versus 0.49 off peak for SCE

    Say a owner like hill added enough solar to generate 5.5 MWH a year which is approximately what a 2011 leaf would use in a year including grid losses, what would be the net on the Southern California Edison Grid. Building that solar would replace natural gas during peak times taking the lower figure of 0.63 tons/MWH * 5.5 MWH*93% grid efficiency =3.22 tons of CO2. Charging the leaf off peak would take 0.49tons/MWH *5.5MWH = 2.70 tons of CO2, so the net effect would be a negative carbon footprint of 0.52 tons of CO2 per year.

    Since Hill sometimes charges during the day, he is not lowering the SCE grid by this full amount, but he could change his charging habbits to lower the SCE use of natural gas by charging off peak.

    It is a matter of accounting on whether hill or SCE or a combination gets credit for this green house gas reduction. I believe it is hill. But credit or no, the net effect is that local part of the grid produces less ghg because of adding solar during the day, and charging plug-ins at night.
     
    #9 austingreen, Apr 6, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2015
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  10. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    One dimensional thinking is the issue. There are two dimensions that need to be addressed separately, see my previous post.

    Solar energy vs. renewable carbon-free emission. The problem is when EV owners with grid-tied PV system claim their EV miles are carbon-free. That's simply not true because the grid is not carbon free. Carbon-free claim requires SREC.

    However, he can claim the energy for those EV miles are from the sun since electrons are fungible.
    I agree, California electricity is pretty clean. So is NY and NJ but there are spots where it is not, for example Long Island.

    It doesn't mean we should roll out EVs and PHEV nationwide if the result is higher emission with the cost of $7,500 tax incentive.

    UCS chart said 60% of the population lives in location where the electric miles are cleaner than 50 MPG gas Prius. However, that is a bit misleading because not everybody in the household would buy a car. In the dense cities, it is less likely due to the mass transit availability.
     
  11. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    EV alone, no. The discussion is about those that get an EV, and take additional steps to use cleaner electric. Either by installing home PV or wind, or simply buying renewable energy from the utility.
    A business requires the REC if they are using the carbon free claim for advertising or possibly tax or other incentive purposes. By why the individual with a grid tied system?
    If the sun electrons are fungible, why aren't carbon free ones?

    There are national and individual reasons beyond emissions for doing so.
     
  12. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    One dimensional thinking is exactly what I am trying to get you out of.
    Someone else said it better than I, so I will try again.

    If someone produces 1 ton of CO2 each year, and then gets an EV and solar panels and produces 1 ton of CO2 each year, their driving adds no CO2 to the atmosphere.

    Now, you can get nit picky and say that because they plug in at night and the grid is generating CO2 their car therefore produces CO2. However, that is glossing over the full story, which is that annually, their lifestyle with an EV adds no more CO2 to the atmosphere.

    And if steps are taken, such as adding PV or buying renewable energy, it is lower.
     
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  13. usbseawolf2000

    usbseawolf2000 HSD PhD

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    Because the grid is not carbon free. If it is, I would agree. Carbon free kWh goes in and carbon free kWh comes out.

    Sure, there are many other reasons but the point is, not surely emission reason. Can other reasons balance out and justify the social benefit for $7,500?

    Because their system is not probably certified to generate carbon free certificate. Grid infrastructure and maintenance is funded by many others. Individual can't claim all the credit for the collective effort. Having SREC ensure that you are not "stepping on other toes".

    The set up won't work without the reliability of fossil fuel. Renewable energy is unreliable. That someone is taking advantage of reliable fossil fuel (and publicly funded infrastructure) in order to make that solar system work. Individual cannot claim the group collective effort.

    Your self-centered thinking denies effort of others and take away their credit.
     
    #13 usbseawolf2000, Apr 6, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2015
  14. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Pretty much
    The difficulty in assigning value to PV production sent to the grid is that the source energy displaced is a moving target that changes with locale, time of day, pricing signals, supply and demand.

    In general, PV reduces NG because that is the most expensive for the utility.
    OTOH, PV that prevents fossil fuel growth may be offsetting coal because that may have been the utility base load choice.

    Complicated, eh?
     
  15. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    With EPA's proposed Clean Power Plan (to be finalized Summer 2015) EPA is asking for 30% CO2 reduction by 2030 (interim 2020) from 2005 BASE, and we are already down about 15% so really easy, just a little ways to go, right? No way, however. When you consider population growth about +20% between 2005 and 2030, its more like a 50-60% CO2 reduction per person EPA is asking for from 2005. For Virginia, EPA wants to ask us for 40% CO2 reduction between now and 2030 (2020 interim - harder yet). We only have 20% coal use to play with.

    In other words, yes we are cleaning up the grid. But we'd pretty much have to shut down coal just to break even on CO2 emissons growth by 2030. And EPA is not asking to just hold CO2 even, they are asking to reduce it. So we see how it works out.
     
    #15 wjtracy, Apr 6, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2015
  16. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    You may be mixing things up here. Can we distinguish between a reduction in absolute coal use, and reduction in the fractional use of coal ?

    The latter may simply require that new capacity not be coal.

    Addendum: I looked up the EPA proposal. A 30% reduction in carbon emissions from a 2005 baseline by 2030 is proposed. Imagine If a 1990 baseline had been used, as it should have.

    Since 15% reduction has occurred from fuel substitution, the proposal is in effect saying that all new capacity had best be clean, and another 15% reduction of 2005 level emissions by a combination of fuel substitution and clean fuels.

    All told, that sounds like a call to pollute in 2030 at 1990 levels.
    You think the South is whining now? Wait until they are told to reduce emissions to circa 1680 levels.
     
    #16 SageBrush, Apr 6, 2015
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2015
  17. Zythryn

    Zythryn Senior Member

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    That is an interesting way of looking at it, I hope I didn't give anyone else that impression.
    I in no way want to ignore or lessen the incredible value of the grid, nor anyone's efferots in maintaining it.

    The marvels of the grid are why it works so much better than an off grid setup if you want to help society rather than just focus on your own personal GHG emissions.

    By contributing to the grid, I clean up my own home and transportation energy, and in addition, share some renewable energy with my neighbors.
    It is the same reason that we not only are designing our yard to absorb and filter all rainwater that falls on it, but are also designing curb cuts to absorb additional water from the streets.

    Being green isn't just about you, it is about society.
     
  18. Trollbait

    Trollbait It's a D&D thing

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    Yes. Even if the carbon emissions aren't reduced, the emissions toxic to human health are shifted away from human population centers and possible smog basins. Shifting from petroleum to a domestic fuel could reduce national security expenditures and threats. It does lessen the economic impact of petroleum price swings.
    Sun generated electricity is carbon free. If sun electrons are fungible, and if a plugin owner can claim their car is powered by the sun because of that, then they can claim to be carbon free.If they can't claim it to be carbon free, then they can't claim to be sun powered. It is both or it is neither.
    So it isn't certified, so what? The only reason to be certified is in order to sell SRECs. If the person wants to use carbon free power, they aren't going to be selling the SRECs to begin with. What is the difference between a home PV in a locale that allows it to be certified for SRECs and one that the locale that doesn't besides paper work? Whose toes could get stepped on?

    Transmission fees for the grid supplied electric are included in the bill. If the utility is being forced to pay the PV owner more than the spot wholesale for the electric their panels provide to the grid, that is an issue with poor regulations.. Even then, their is likely a monthly fee in order to be tied to the grid.

    So, the only way for someone with a PV and/or a wind turbine can claim to be carbon free is to be off the grid. You do realize that an off grid home will take more resources and have less carbon emission reduction than a grid tied home, right? The grid tied one won't have any environmental and power loss costs for batteries, and any excess electric generation made during the day goes and displaces fossil fuel energy right away.
     
  19. austingreen

    austingreen Senior Member

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    Replacing thermal coal or ocgt natural gas with ccgt natural gas reduces ghg by 40% or more. Replacing a gasoline car with a 30+ mile phev or bev would likely reduce ghg from transportation by over 60% if virginia cleans up power generation as much as the epa wants them to do. 2030 is really fast for this to happen though, so yes I agree, I expect push back from the state of Virginia. Still Virginia is not going to increase co2e per kwh or per capita, it is going to go down. Wind renewables look good in west virginia, and the grid can incorporate those to serve growth of electrical demand in virginia. It just may not go down as fast as the proposed EPA Clean Power Plan.

    Well if we look at the regional grid SERC Virginia/Carolina in 2013 according to that UCS document, an average plug-in (104 mpge) would produce equivalent CO2e green house gas as a 60 mpg gasoline powered car. Reduce green house gas per kwh (not per capita) from the regional grid by just the 15% you think it reasonable, and that average plug-in would only produce the green house gas equivalent of a 71 mpg gasoline car. The average light vehicle in virginia today is likely below 25 mpg. 71 miles on the green house gas equivlant of a gallon of gas is not bad if Virginia starts to buy a lot of plug-ins a decade from now.

    Many area's like where hill lives, see my example have low solar (1.5% for SCE in 2013), and adding solar, and demand ends up with lower ghg than without solar and the demand. That is because ghg during peak hours when solar is active is higher per kwh, than at night when cars typically charge. Yes if solar grows rapidly this with change, but for now installing solar and plug-ins reduces the ghg from hill's utility.

    Does hill or SCE get the credit? I think hill does, but you can reasearch further. If he does he could claim 0 ghg. I am part of green choice where I get the credit REC, and my utility assigns me 0 ghg for my electricity. If I put up solar, and take the local money though, my utility will take the credit, i'll be assigned about 510 g co2e/kwh, better than the national grid, up much worse than now. If I only take federal and not local money thought I can still claim low, but not 0.

    Yep, and if someone wants cleaner energy in one of these higher ghg areas, most of the time they can purchase green energy or put up solar. Some can't.

    You have 2 parts here. I understand you are against the tax incentive period, because it is to promote technology instead of imediately reduce ghg. That is a political discussion,not a factual one, and one that belongs in fred's house of pancakes,now. Everything has been said already.

    The second part though that if a plug-in has higher ghg than the most efficient hybrid in a regional grid then it should not be sold just seems wrong on the face of it. The most efficient hybrids (prius + pirus c + prius phv) only account for a little over 1% of the market. 9% of the market gets less than 18 mpg. It seems strange to support selling a tundra or sequoia in a region but think the ghg of a volt or tesla is too high.


    Absolutely population is not the best choice when looking at likely plug-in buyers. It is a better choice than just looking at the grids averaged together by power. If we look at likely plug-in buyers simply because they are biased so much to the west coast, it would be much higher than 60%.
     
    #19 austingreen, Apr 6, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Apr 8, 2015
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  20. 3PriusMike

    3PriusMike Prius owner since 2000, Tesla M3 2018

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    So let me get this straight. I'm considering getting solar, but I am usually at work when it is sunny. If I drive home, charge then back to work I can claim that I am "clean" and driving on solar. But if I charge at work (on a sunny day) and am using almost nothing can I claim I'm driving on solar? I'm producing the solar electrons and I want to claim I'm the one consuming them.
    Does it make any difference if I live 50 ft from where I work? Or 500 ft or 5 miles?
    What about the fact that at home I use 120v to charge (15% losses) vs 240v at work with 10% losses?
    Should I just not get solar if I can't claim to be driving on solar?
    (My home electric usage is too low to make solar practical without charging a car once in a while)

    Note that nationally the line losses are something like 5-7%. But certainly only a few miles away they have to be much smaller than that. So it seems to me it is greener to have solar at home but charge miles away with less losses during charging.

    Mike
     
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