One In 10 New Vehicles Will Be Diesel In 2015

I think you "might" be able to float that timeline and idea, in 2009..but it's obvious today that is simply not going to be the case.

I think things are changing, but simply not that quickly. It also seems to me, that the change at this point is coming from a "Many Eggs, Many Baskets" perspective.

In the US and elsewhere demand for more efficient vehicles is manifesting in diverse ways. Diesels, Hybrids, Electrics, Plug In Hybrids, and Gasoline Engines that are simply becoming more efficient.

In short, I think those numbers as projected in 2009, highly optimistic for diesel proponents, in 2012.

 

As I said, to remove the sulfer. If you think other processes require large quantities you don't understand what is going on in a refinery. The main things done at a refinery of distillation of the crude to various fractons that are then mixed together to form product such as gasoline, diesel, and heating fuel. These then have sulfur removed through a hydrogen heavy process that creates H2S, which is then further processed. Some fractions are not present in correct quantities in the oil, so then it is reformed either cracked to produce shorter hydrocarbons or combined to make larger ones. Most reforming is done with catylists, and hydrogen may be used in the process but it is also recovered in these reformation processes.

The cheapest way to get a larger amount of the fractions that produce diesel is to use a heavier crude oil. This requires more energy in the distillation process, but the oil is less expensive. The refinery must have equipment to handle this heavy crude, which means most refineries can not just in exprensively increase the fraction. The gulf coast refineries in recent years have been investing heavily to use this heavier crude, because they can export the diesel and make higher profits. It takes years to add this capacity, but brazil is starting to try to add it to their refineries now, as light crude is getting more scarce.

Exactly.

 

Not 10%, but I think you'll see a jump.

Euro 6 is now at the point where the numbers for everything except NOx are as good as the USA, it's the difference in cycles that's makes it harder in the USA.

But, the tightening of emissions standards and NOx in particular means that the Euro 6 compliant vehicles can more easily and (perhaps more importantly) more effectively be modified for sale in the USA. On top of this, the standards now match Japan so manufacturers can see an expanded global market. Couple that with rising fuel costs and a market that prefers larger vehicles and they'll see that diesel has great potential in the USA.

If anything stops diesel in the USA it'll be competition from gasoline hybrids and plug-ins, not the emissions regulations.

 

Euro 6 will help move european diesels here more easily as you say. But increased regulations on diesel emissions in the US make them more expensive, helping turbocharged direct injection gasoline and hybrids including phevs.

It will be interesting to see how the jetta hybrid and honda skyactive diesel do here.

The big boost that diesel could get is if we find a way to make inexpensive biodiesel. 2015, there is no way diesel gets to 10%. 2025, who knows.

 

You probably need to take it up with US Dept of Energy who's data states that 70% of of the 10 million metric tons of hydrogen produced is at oil refineries mostly for their use in distillation of oil.

The issue here though was ability to produce larger quantities of Diesel fuel which would require increase in hydrogen production. It is easy for US refineries to change proportion of oil distillate to get more Diesel but you can get more gallons of gasoline from a barrel of oil than you can Diesel so it is more efficient for US to stick with gasoline vs. Diesel and use hybrid technology to extend it to 50-100 mpg.

 

yes, but NOx is the problem. Bigger cats needed for US market mean not only bigger price but also worse performance, both consumption and 0-60.

Coupled with US not subsidizing the cost of diesel, i dont think realistically it will ever come close to 5% for passenger vehicles.

When Germans build good hybrids, i wonder how many of their diesel drivers will switch over in USA?

In Europe it is different story completely, due to traditions, lower emission requirements (Euro5 means not all diesels have to have DPF!), goverment subsidizing diesel fuel (in my country by 10% of current price). Euro6 will make cheaper diesels more expensive.

I just checked LEVIII vs Euro6... and LEVIII is going to be around 70% more demanding than Euro6... thats a LOT. Both NOx from 2014 and PM from 2017.

Not even talking about ULEV... will ULEV at any point become mandatory?

 

...in addition, the EU refineries are generally a little less complex configured to make more diesel without as much processing to crack everything down to gasoline like we do in USA.

 

keep in mind that without govt help, diesel fuel here would be 7% more expensive than gasoline... and thats market where probably 70%-80% of fuel sold is diesel.

 

And in a Country like the UK where diesel fuel IS almost 7% more expensive, how do you explain the 51% diesel share of the market?

 

Appeasing the Germans ... again ?

Sorry, couldn't resist.
UK is unusual in this regard, no ?

 

While I can see use of diesel increasing in passenger cars out in long range highway-rural areas, I cannot see it catching on in cities. Soot, particulate emissions, are a big problem from buses and trucks in a confined area. NYC has added devices to its buses and you can really notice the improvement. But this more expensive technology is sorely lacking in trucks and other buses. I cannot envision tens of thousands of passenger autos and cabs spewing diesel emissions on the streets of NYC.

EVs are better suited for city environments where range needs are shorter. Who needs a 700 mile range for a city car? Why would you want to carry that much fuel around unless you are out on an open highway?

 

Perhaps I read the tables wrong. The combined NMOG+NOX is still 0.160 grams/mile for the easiest tier, but testing has to go out to 150k miles.

 

I cannot explain it. Like you I would buy a Prius.

 

I'm not a EU fan let's put it that way. I like German people, have met many. Actually I like people generally but I don't like the Politicians in the EU, what they stand for and the mess they are creating yet again. I think what they're forcing Greece to do is criminal and will cause dreadful consequences in the future if Greece aren't allowed to sort themselves out - see some of the links below.

The EU and the Euro is all a big mess. Just look at the unemployment figures for places like Greece, Spain or Portugal - running at 25% or 50% for under 25's. Those Countries shouldn't have been allowed in the Euro and now aren't allowed out otherwise it'll make France and Germany look bad, and is causing a collapsed economy. OK, I'm no economist but I don't like the unelected EU, I never voted for an EU state and can't vote them in or out. Revolutions have been fought for less and the way they're treating the Greeks I think we're just seeing the beginning of it. OK, it could be said Greece got themselves into this mess - but let them get out of it in the same way an individual with too much debt can go bankrupt. Holding an entire population down like this will only backfire - and if you've never been, Greece is lovely and the people the friendliest you'll ever meet!

A European Common Market is a good thing, an unelectable European Super State with the Euro is the foundations to destitution and war, I fear.

You did ask.

BBC News - Europe: The Dangers of Spring
BBC News - Greece election: New groups challenge old guard
BBC News - Greece's far right hopes for new dawn
BBC News - Struggling Greeks losing belief in the state

Nigel Farage: Euro Break-Up Just a Question of How - YouTube

 

But again, that's a non-issue with the current light-duty diesel vehicles sold in the U.S. All have particle filters (DPF) as OEM equipment, which virtually eliminate PM emissions from diesel vehicles (as you have noted with the retro-fitted DPFs on existing diesel buses, etc.)

 

You're wasting your breath mate. There must be 5 previous comments outlining that diesel cars today bare NO relation to the diesel cars Americans remember from 1980, but still they refer to them 'spewing' smoke etc.

I'm not a diesel fanboy but an ex taxi driver colleague had a brand new 2011 VW Passatt diesel and the inside of the tail pipe was totally clean even after 10,000 miles of taxi use. There wasn't any soot on the inside - you could wipe our finger round it and it would be totally clean - unlike the inside of my Prius tail pipe!

But people have long memories and ALL diesel cars spew smoke apparantly.

 

Diesel exhaust is a carcinogen. Even "cleaner" diesel exhaust is a hazard.

 

Not according to a study just released by the Health Effects Institue (HEI)...

http://pubs.healtheffects.org/getfile.php?u=708

 

Does this also apply to diesels with SCR(urea) systems? It adds a little(as long as you don't go to a Mercedes dealer) to operating cost, but it doesn't have the economy and performance loss of non SCR systems.

The technology is already required on new passenger cars and even heavy duty trucks. They are already on the road. Unless you caught a diesel emblem, you would have assumed they were just another gasser.

Commercial trucks are another matter. Even with requirements for new trucks, the old ones just have long service lives. So the fleet turnover to the new tech will take longer. This is also true of diesel cars, but, besides Mercedes and VW, no one as sold one since the '80s.

 

I have to admit when I had one of the new VW TDI's, the exhaust was very clean and unless I brought it up, no one would have thought it was a diesel.