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    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Was thinking this morning, EV might be a 5th member of Prius family in x years.

    I vote for the '3rd gen' type chassis as opposed to c. Apparently a Rav4EV is coming, but that chassis not so optimized for efficiency.

    5 years or so, mid $30k's, 1xx miles on 80% charge ???

    Prius EV or Prius ev ??

    What do you think?
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    Keiichi Active Member

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    I don't think it would be called a Prius, to be honest. I think they might call it another name for a pure EV type vehicle. I am sure the Plugin Prius will evolve to be more Electric with a gas range extender, but a BEV Toyota would probably get rebranded with a new name.
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    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    The Prius HSD is fundamentally a completely integrated system of electric motors with battery and ICE. A "Prius EV" would not be a Prius at all. It would be an entirely different car, even if it was built within a Prius body.

    However, I've been saying for years that I wished Toyota (and Honda as well) would build a pure EV. With Toyota (or Honda) quality, such a car would have been my first choice, and I'd have bought it in an eye blink, any time up until 3/4 of a year ago, when I bought my Tesla.
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    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    Yes. Again. :)

    I kind like the RAVe name myself, but then, I don't work in marketing.

    A Prius E would be great, though of course it may not have HSD. Which is fine - hybrids are the stepping stone between fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. By the time HSD is no longer needed, it will have accomplished its goals.
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    efusco Troll Slayer

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    I think it's fairly unlikely that a Toyota EV would fall under the Prius monicer, but it's not impossible if they choose to use Prius not only for hybrids but all advanced tech vehicles. We'll see.

    That said, in 5 years a $30k EV better have a lot more than 199mile range. I think 300, at that point, would be an absolute minimum for a Prius size/weight vehicle, probably pushing 500 miles.
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    cycledrum PSOCSOASP

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    Are we looking at that kind of EV improvement in 5 years? 300+ miles EV for $30k in Prius type clothes? If so, I'm saving up now :D

    Cool avatar btw
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    Zythryn Senior Member

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    I would have bought a Toyota highway capable EV with a 100 mile range (in winter) in a heartbeat. I would rather be driving that than either my Tesla (much cheaper) or Volt (pure EV).
    Hopefully the Rav4 EV is ready by the time the lease on our Volt is up.
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    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    I think the announcement of a new Rav4EV is signal enough that Toyota is not going to use the Prius nameplate for an EV. I personally do not like the SUV body style. That alone makes the Rav4EV a hard sell for me. Similarly the eBox, AC Propulsion's electric conversion of the Scion xB. My very first choice would have been an electric Honda Civic.
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    Skoorbmax Senior Member

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    Absolutely not, IMO. Battery capacity would have to quadruple in capacity for a given size and come down in price at the same time, since this would be cheaper than a Leaf with four times its range. This will happen, but not in five years. i think the best we can hope for is something like a Leaf with an EPA range of twice what it is now for the same price (~150 miles).
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    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    A Prius EV? That's the future. Big enough car, Toyota reliability, plenty of room for the batteries to go in to give a 130 mile range. Job done.
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    austingreen Senior Member

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    Battery is only increasing at 7%/ year. That means in 5 years we might expect a leaf to get 100 miles epa. 500 miles requires a huge expensive battery pack. If you want a 500 mile range we are either talking over $100K or a PHEV that can kick in an engine when the batteries run low. The NS4 is the toyota proposed phev platform, we should see soon.
    Competitive Electric Car Battery 5 Years Away, U.S. Energy Chief Says - Bloomberg
    That means around $225/kwh as DOE's goal. At about 3 miles/kwh a 300 mile pack would still need a $22K battery pack alone not to mention profit and the rest of the car. You can't do that.for anything close to $30K:D
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    efusco Troll Slayer

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    Tesla's Model S will have an 85kWh battery that, with aerodynamic options is estimated at 320 mile range. Now a smaller car probably won't be able to use a battery quite that large, but it also won't require a battery that large if it is equaly aerodynamic and lighter/smaller. I see no reason a Prius size vehicle can't be built with a solid 300 mile range right now.

    That said, cost is certainly a factor. Each ~70 miles additional range for the Tesla sets you back an extra $10k above the base $57K price. Tesla is a luxury car with lots of expensive amenities, Toyota should be able to build a Prius style vehicle for much less. Perhaps the base would only be a 35kWh pack at the $30k price point, but I don't think it's impractical to think that they could build a 300mile range Prius-style car for $50k.
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    austingreen Senior Member

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    Think of the cars as a glider + motor and battery. The first thing to understand a prius EV will not use significantly less electricity per mile. The prius phv an EPA more than 30Kwh/100miles. The weight of the battery pack means that the BEV will be heavy That means that that prius EV in your mind is a prius glider plus $40K worth of batteries. In 5 years this may be down to $22K. Now to get to that $50K you need to build the rest of the low volume prius EV for $28K and somehow ship it from japan and get the dealers a cut. Remember that tesla S car already includes a battery cooling and monitoring system. Its possible but very unlikely.

    No 300 mile range in a $50K toyota BEV is not reasonable in the next 5 years unless toyota intends to lose a great deal of money on the project. Why not a 150 mile BEV or a 60 mile EREV? These seem much more doable. Your 35Kwh prius shaped and sized car that is $30K after tax credits is certainly in the realm of possibilities. That might have a much lighter $8K battery pack and move at a higher volume. Such a car, IMHO would need to be manufactured in north America for it to be profitable for US sales.
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    fjpod Member

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    Three hundred miles plus range within five years, under $50k? Not gonna happen. I think it will be more like 150 miles in a Prius sized car for $35k+.

    I'm fifty seven now, and when i was a kid, i liked to read Popular Mechanics, science section of the NY Times, and such... I would always read that... "we would all be driving electric cars within five years...". It took thirty years for the Prius to be born. And the only two practical EVs I see right now are the Leaf and the Miev (price, features, driveability.).
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    finman Active Member

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    So where should we have been if the electric car hadn't been killed in the late 90s, early 2000s? I'd say with tech whizzing along at it's current pace, 5 years we will see things we say are impossible today. at prices that many can afford. just my optimistic view. 'course we do have big oil and politics to deal with...
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    austingreen Senior Member

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    I don't think they were actually killed:D otherwise we would not have them today. Its just a decade since that decision. Maybe it cost 7 years.

    The biggest thing we would see on the road now is the phev. If GM had not killed the patents, and CARB had embraced the plug in hybrid, we would have had many nimh plug ins on the road today. The prius phv would have happened in 2008 instead of 2012. The volt might have been 2007 instead of 2010. There would be little ford energis on the road, etc.

    BEVs would still be expensive but would be more accepted.
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    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    But only in America where big oil is influencial. Do you think it's no surprise that EV's and hybrids are designed or made predominantly in Japan and Europe. Renault in Europe are releasing a range of 4 pure EV models this year alone and are reducing their range of petrol/diesel models to accomodate them. That's a strong belief that they feel EV's are the future and will be successful.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying America isn't capable of designing such vehicles (look at the EV1 and Volt), more a case that with cheap (compared to the rest of the world) petrol and a big oil lobby, that it is much harder for such vehicles to make it into production. Would the Volt have made it if it hadn't been forced through? Or would it have been burried in the archives until fuel prices went up again?
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    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    I expect battery improvements and BEV price declines to be gradual but steady. I do not think that BEVs would be generally acceptable to most Americans for many years at present gasoline prices. However, I do believe that gas prices will continue to rise, due to supply and demand, and this will drive a changing paradigm, where more families accept that they cannot afford more than one stinker, for longer trips or hauling the boat to the lake, while an EV becomes the commuter car. I'm not sure that I'd be willing to dispose of my stinker today. There's just no other practical way to get to the places I like to go for hiking in the summer, and even if there were charging stations along the way, it would turn the long, rather tiring half-day drives into exhausting all-day trips. But I feel that a REEV is an unacceptable compromise: the worst of both worlds. I prefer keeping the stinker for the road trips, and using a BEV the rest of the time. Granted, most single people cannot afford to keep two cars. But most families already have two cars, and could adjust to having one stinker and one BEV. They might not like it ("What if I have to make a 500-mile trip on a moment's notice while my wife has the gas car?" is a comment I actually saw here on Prius Chat) but they'll accept it when the price of gasoline becomes unacceptable.

    If 10% of America's multi-car families decided to get an EV the next time one of their cars needed to be replaced due to age or damage, the market would be enormous.
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    fjpod Member

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    I'm a firm believer that oil prices are rigged to control profits for oil producing nations and oil companies. If oil prices continue to rise, it will not be because we are "running out", but because of greed.

    Demand for gasoline in the US is down already...I think I read somewhere about 7 percent. Yes, developing nations are consuming more, but they are paying even more. Gasoline supplies are high, yet prices go higher. Tell me that is not rigged.

    Dont get me wrong. I am a green type person and believe in reducing our carbon footprint. But they're going to figure out a way to raise prices no matter what.
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    DaveinOlyWA 3rd Time was Solariffic!!

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    i think the best we can hope for in a mass market EV is one that goes for low 30's (today's price) and get 150 mile range on the LA 4 cycle.

    the problem with 500 mile range batteries is weight and 5 years will not provide that much weight reduction. the additional weight kills the performance. plus i think the better way to go is an extensive public charging infrastructure along with EV friendly legislation.

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