Tesla's next car may cost $50k or more

after govt rebates $35 may be close...

 

The current battery price is estimated at around $275/kwh, even if the price did not drop with the gigafactory the price of a 50 kwh pack for the model III (size speculated) would be around $14,000. If it drops like Tesla says it will by 30%, then we are talking $9,700. Even if the author is write about batteries not dropping in cost which is doubtful, at a 25% profit margin it would only add $5700 to the price. Sure the model III may start at $41,000 not $35,000 depending on teslas costs, but $50,000 sounds crazy high.

The model S is $69,900 in base model, and that was priced for profit at small runs. I would expect the model III to sell at least as well as the leaf, which did 47,000 units last year. Do that volume in a unibody steel instead of aluminum(maybe aluminum hood like the prius), and the balance of the car drops quite a bit. Optioned out the model III may indeed go to $80,000, but the car with a 200 mile drive train should come in around $40K if not less.

 

prius hatch is aluminum as well, yes?

 

Hog wash. Nissan Leaf S costs $29k before incentives. An additional $6k would buy about 25 kWh worth of batteries. That's nearly 50 kWh combined at $35k. And that's at today's prices. Yes, the Leaf S is a stripped model with a 3.3 kW charger and no DC fast charge. It still has a backup camera though. So if Nissan loads a Leaf's trunk full of batteries, they would have a 200 mile range EV today. It'll be a piece of cake for Musk to do the same in 3 years.

 

Your comparo ignores the *other* changes that go into a car with a big load of batteries to lug around. Hefty suspension, for one. I'll also go out on a limb and suggest that the Tesla sans battery is a lot more expensive car than the LEAF sans battery.

Musk is not a bullshitter. If he thinks he can build a base 50 kW Tesla 3 that sells for $35k I believe him. Unclear to me though is whether he is including tax credits.

 

Tesla has said on more than one occasion that the $35,000 price target is before rebates and tax credits.

That's what they are saying but they have been overly optimistic on price targets before.

 

I obviously left out a lot of details like with all that extra weight, AC motor will need a little more power. Delete backup camera, heated seats, and whatever features and insert heftier suspension and motor. Done. The point I'm trying to make is that we're just about there at the $35k cost point and 200 mile range today. GM, Nissan, and any manufacturer really should be able hit that price in 3 years time.

The federal rebates will likely be used up by the Model S and X or nearly so by the time Model III goes into production. $35k target is without the rebates.

I have no doubt the Model III will be more seductive than the Leaf. It will be interesting to see what features Musk can squeeze in at the $35k price point. The real question is will the $35k Model III become the dodo 40kWh Model S that no one wanted?

 

I would expect the model III to match the sheet metal, suspension and interior quality of the lexus is or bmw 328i or audi A4. Those are the cars I would be bench marking against. Here we start at around $35,000.

Now ex the ice, the transmission, the pollution control, radiator that probably is $12,000 on the bmw.

Add $10,000 battery, $2000 for inverters and battery cooling, $2000 for motors. I think it will cost more than the bmw 3 or lexus is, but it may be close to what you save in gas. Those cars have the IS f, M3, S4 that are a lot more money, I would expect tesla to add more battery and the model S's performance electronics to blow those cars away at a price.

 

My first, and really only impression of Tesla is dismay, at their unabashed high end, high performance aura.

 

Why?
Musk wants to see EVs from anybody on the road. To big the traditional car companies moving in that direction, Tesla has to be successful. The economics of batteries when they started, and their resources meant they couldn't start with a pedestrian model like the Leaf. Tesla couldn't absorb years of losses as the model gained market share like Nissan could. They couldn't even produce a car in the numbers such a model would require.

Practical and affordable gasoline cars have tight margins. There simply isn't any room there for a start up to survive. The high end and performance area was the only area Tesla had a real chance to succeed. Higher margins to fund growth, and buyers well off enough to take a risk on new technology.

And sexy sells. Even if most can't buy a Tesla now, many are talking about it. More people probably talk about Tesla than the new Corolla. And the plan has always been to take the higher margins of being snobby to build more affordable models and push the technology down in price.

Henry Ford make luxury cars until he had the means of getting the Model T made.

 

Perhaps in an ideological way? I'd much rather have a Tesla at $35 K than a Prius Five with the moon roof. Tesla brings style and pizazz into play, nobody else does. Efficiency doesn't have to be boring, bland, or slow.

 

... nobody? .... ok ....




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I don't think the i8 will be available for $35k after all credits though. Perhaps its little brother, with its love it or hate it styling.