For March and April 2012, the generation from non-fossil fuels produced more power than either coal or natural gas and also for the first time ever natural gas and coal were about the same and each was < 1/3 with each fuel providing only about 32% of total generation. Here is my chart of the % generation which is based on data dowloaded from EIA I'm happy we got here now rather than earlier predictions that put it at end of decade. And to those people still using 2009 or 2010 data (which is what is in most wheels to wells analysis), time to update your self for the new, far greener, reality. Figured I'd also convert that into gC02/kWh for people. So how do we get the word out to those people that keep saying EVs are bad because they are all coal? (And please don't let this disintegrate into a hot-water discussion).
In Germany, the Utilities have succeeded in reducing Feed In Tariffs significantly. One factor the utilities cite is the capital cost of installing PV installations has dropped significantly, which is true. However, the loss of utility profits, has been dramatic and that is their fundamental drive for stopping the Tariffs. What especially hurts is the loss of high profit utility sales on daytime peak loads (which is where all those PV panels are producing max output!). What struck me as really interesting is that at the present rate, the solar power generation costs cross over into being profitable without needing ANY tariffs in only a couple of decades. I might still be around then to observe (if not participating).
I have seen solar panels for $1/peak watt (on special). That makes my price per kWh around 11.4 cents (after adding balance of system and installation costs). At that price, it is profitable for me right now with no tax breaks or tariffs (but with net-metering).
....this year 2012 we have a confluence of (1) mild winter and (2) crash of USA nat gas market, so suspect we are seeing a minimum peak in the curve right now. As you know experts expect coal use to go back up in the 2013. Basic trend we are seeing though is nat gas, which has been under-utilized in USA, increasing to closer where it should be.
That is likely true, ad out the factors this year. Thee rise of nuke+renewable to be more than either, and the of the seasonal dip in nuke+ renewable is a good sign that we can retain some of the cut back on coal. NG used to have very very large seasonal swings -- why because they used NG for peakers for summer AC demands. Now they are starting to use the same NG systems for balance with wind so both NG and renewables are seeing less seasonal variations as well.
