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Discussion in 'Prius, Hybrid, EV and Alt-Fuel News' started by cwerdna, May 8, 2011.
UPDATE 1-Toyota to make plug-ins standard for Prius from 2014-Nikkei | Reuters
The Reuters news service is terrible. Sad really, it used to be quite informative.
I am not making any plans beyond [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/December_21_2012"]December 2012[/ame] which is why the 2012 Prius Plug-in will be the last car I ever buy.
I hope plugging in becomes standard, just not a larger battery size.
Interesting that 2014 is the year that 13 NiMH patents held by [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobasys"]Cobasys[/ame] expire.
It will be absolutely awesome when Toyota does decide to make all Priuses plug-ins, as it will move a positive ratchet forward toward electric as a SOURCE and reducing gasoline as an energy source.
As to whether Toyota will do this in 2014, I think will depend highly upon the success of the 2012 Prius PHV and the production cost economics of the plug-ins. I see the regular Prius sticking around until sales of the PHV at least equal sales of the regular Prius. If the regular Prius sales take off and become a hot selling product for Toyota, I don't see Toyota discontinuing it. On the other hand, if the cost difference between the two becomes narrow, I could see Toyota forcing consumers to change, as it may cost less to just produce one version.
Prius PHV sales numbers for 2012 and 2013 will be needed before Toyota can commit to discontinuing the regular Prius in favor of the PHV.
Right. I'm looking forward to seeing what happens after that. Li prices should have dropped a bit more by then so I don't think there will be that much of a price advantage, but I bet there are some RAV4 EV owners who would love to be able to get a new pack.
Not being standard wouldn't make sense for the high-end packages at that point.
Toyota's approach of making price a high priority part of the design will allow them to migrate down fairly quick. Like with other rollouts, it will be based upon consumer demand. Delivery wait-lists and strong sales are the gauge.
Future Prius Could Power Your House – In A Pinch | The Truth About Cars
So we really have 3 rumors here, the first is that the gen IV will come out in 2014 probably as a 2015. We had heard a previous rumor that it was going to be delayed to 2015 as a '16, but gas prices and demand make this rumor likely. The second is that Toyota will be dropping the cordless marketing which really had no traction. If they can build their batteries at the prices that lg and nissan say theirs cost a standard prius won't compete well with those cars. A cheaper smaller pack might stay in the prius c when its redone.. This rumor should also makes sense. The third is that they will allow the prius to be used as a generator, which could be a selling point in japan. Finally these are all rumors, and not official word. I take all of them with a degree of skepticism.
These things take long lead times. It should be a better design to make the gen IV as a plug in, instead of a plug in/stnadard hybrid. The prius c likely becomes the less expensive standard hybrid. If they are going for this plan, only disasters in the phv would stop it. but remember the plan is only a rumor.
I envision Prius c staying with NiMH (cheaper with the patent expired) and the Prius with Lithium plugin standard.
Unless they know that the tax incentives will be bumped up again (will expire otherwise) on such things, I hope they can get the price down or else it will raise MSRP quite substantially.
Toyota had been claiming that batteries cost $1200/kwh, but they are using sanyo for lithium technology which recently said.
Sanyo Aims to Slash Lithium-Ion Car-Battery Costs - Businessweek
Or about $620/kwh. This makes a 5kwh pack (we don't know the size in the proposed gen IV) cost about $3100. The tax credit is $2900 for a pack that size, which means after tax credit toyota could lower the price versus the current Nimh pack. Of course the credits only last so long, but if you are buying a green car, a $3K battery doesn't sound so bad, that's what they sell the replacement for on our cars. If they get the price down to $375/kwh which is where Nissan claims they can get to in 2015 the price drops even further.
That doesn't mean they will be dropping the regular non-plug in Prius after that. That would be totally stupid since huge numbers of people cannot or won't bother plugging-in.
No it will not be. What about all the people parked on the street, in carports, etc, etc .... who cannot plug-in? Most people in our entire home tract park either in driveway or on the street.
For people plugged-in outside, you venture how many little s$%#s are going to unplug those things.
What happens to a PHV pack that doesn't get plugged in for .. 2 years?
What will be the warranty and replacement costs of plug-in packs? What are the costs of run flat tires (I've seen BIG prices on those on tirerack). Will people use tire repair kits. Is everyone happy to lose the space under the deck?
Here we go, from wikipedia [ame]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_encumbrance_of_large_automotive_NiMH_batteries:[/ame]
We have a neighbor who parks their 2010 Silver Prius faithfully by curb in front of the house. So, in 5 years, we should have no more non-plug in hybrids?
Anyone think there will somehow be electrical outlets installed on residential curbs in 5 years?
To your multiple responses in this vein: that's precisely what I'm thinking:
What about all the Prius consumers for whom plugging-in doesn't work. Or, assuming pack size doesn't come down significantly, want to have a spare tire. Or just don't want the hassle and extra weight.
I think the story is missing something.
Are people thinking there will be a Plug-in Prius that can either be plugged or not (over long periods of time), depending on owners access to plug?
Surely you can't be thinking of making Prius a car only for those who have access to plugs.
It is only a rumor, but that is the rumor that is being reported. If they don't plug in, it will still operate as a gen IV prius with extra weight. It will also likely have a more efficient more expensive engine. If you don't want to pay for it, there will likely be a prius c that is the natural child of the gen II prius but smaller, lighter, and cheaper. The prius c has no rumors about going plug in only. In fact, prius c might have been designed before this decision, if one was made, and is rumored to be nimh.
That is exactly what we are thinking. It is also what those at nikkei were thinking. I expect a different architecture than the 3 pack demo prius phv, and the generator should be able to keep the battery at the appropriate charge level even if not plugged in. There are other hybrids than the gen iv prius.