market share for electric vehicles?

Sounds about right. Biggest factor right now is battery technology - primarily cost. Battery prices need to drop about 3-4x (target price $100-$150 per kWh of capacity) before we will see mass adoption. That would put a pack with a 300 mile range between $7,500-$10,000. Compare that to the estimated $35,000 cost of the Tesla pack today.

At the rate that battery price is dropping, we should be there in about 10 years.

And here's an article I just found to back me up:

http://www.eetimes.com/news/latest/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=220100494

 

Even the Prius (and all hybrids for that matter) only has < 5% market share, so it'll be a long way out. Toyota odly enough may still hold market share, what with several hundred RAV4-EV's running around the landscape. The power company yard just a couple miles from here has a bunch, as does the university of CA, Irvine. I wonder if/when Tesla will pass their number.

 

Tesla has probably already passed them by a substantial margin. Tesla has shipped around 1000 units - I think there's only a couple hundred RAV4-EVs running around.