CNNMoney: Plug-in hybrid hype gets zapped

I agree. The only hope is for a battery revolution to occur (something like [ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EEStor]EEStor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]).

 

I believe we discussed this before. The report as of a week ago was not yet released to the public. I remain skeptical of the report but am willing to wait.

Bob Wilson

 

That seems like a very bad assumption. The other assumption is that battery technology is stagnant. The tesla pack is hand made from lap top batteries. The cost of li batteries given in the article is about the tesla current estimate per killowatt hour. They estimate that in 10 years cost for li batteries for cars should be only $12000 for the 53kwh battery down from $36000 today. That would be
less than $4000 for the 40 mile range battery in the volt. Add that to the quiet and smoothness and I would expect plugins with extended range engines (like prius and volt) to be good choices more many consumers in a 10 year period.

I do agree with the conclusion though. I would expect hybrids will become more popular, especially mild hybrids with lithium batteries and little flywheel motors to allow for auto off, regen braking, and giving the slight torque boost to the engine when needed. With these the savings on pollution with plug ins will only be slight (the grid also pollutes), especially as people will keep their old cars. One big benefit is the plugins shift the fuel away from oil which has a limited supply, and power plants can be built to remove the bulk of their pollution including things like carbon sequestration.

Cool just one of the possible energy storage technologies that will make plug-ins more powerful and/or cost effective. I knew about the technology but not the company. Does anyone have contacts there? They are located less than half a prius gallon from where I work.

 

There was a similar article in our local newspaper on Sunday. The article appeared to be quoting a Toyota source as saying they estimated that the battery costs would be reduced by 50% by the year 2030. Toyota also stated that others were using a more aggressive reduction in costs but for now they were going to continue using the 2030 estimate.

 

(sigh) ... here we go again.
This is the same ol drole they used to say, back when the Gen I & Gen II came out. "The Payoff ! ... it takes too long!"

Right ... and when do you reach the 'payoff' with that jacked up 4x4 with 10 shocks under each wheel? ... How 'bout the payoff on that harley? ... Vett? Escalade? It'll never end until we get a car that disintegrates nay-sayers. Hmmmm ... wonder how long the payoff will take on THAT model?


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I'll make my comment more precise.

So... my point was that plug-in hybrids will probably offer a financial benefit before 2030/2040 only if a battery revolution occur (something like [ame="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EEStor"]EEStor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]).

This seems to be Toyota's belief also, pushing into PHEV prudently while waiting for cheaper/better battery technology to arrive.

Take a look at two presentations made few days ago:

TOYOTA: PRIUS PLUG-IN HYBRID

This is my humble opinion. Your own opinion may differ.

 

The report is available from:

Transitions to Alternative Transportation Technologies--Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
http://www.nap.edu/nap-cgi/report.cgi?record_id=12826&type=pdfxsum - free executive summary
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However, I think it is premature to make a claim except as an interesting exercise.

Bob Wilson

 

Hill's point (and mine) is that no one talks about the "pay off" period for leather interior.....because it is non sense to think of it that way. The same manner of thinking should apply to a plug in hybrid. Why does doing something that uses less gasoline require a "payoff" period?

 

To put it bluntly: Because for many people their wallet is more important than their planet. In a capitalist world, the only solution to push the masses to burn less gas is to either make the hybrids/PHEV/EV cost them less than a gas-guzzler (or raise gas price until it does... but that isn't easy in a purely capitalist world).

 

Business week reported in November that Fuji Keizai Group expected Lithium battery cost to drop by 50% in 2014. This is right in line with Tesla's, GM, and Nissan's numbers.

It helps to remember that GM and Nissan may be biased toward ev because they are planning to sell them soon. Toyota owns or will soon own 80% of panasonic ev the leading manufacurer of Nimh vehical batteries and Toyota leads in hybrid technology. A switch to ev lithium technology gets rid of Toyotas lead and opens up the playing field. Note that there are the toyota rumors of an improved prius plug in, in 2014, perhaps a 2015 model designed to take advantage of lower priced, higher capacity lithium batteries.

There is definitely a value to the quiet pure ev motor that does not require a short pay back. Add in the price of fuel in Europe and japan and there are plenty of reasons to believe that ev R&D budgets will improve the drive trains and bring costs down.

 

When I bought my Prius, I understood from various sources that its five year cost would be about $2,500 more than a loaded Corolla--and that no currently available hybrid has a lower five-year projected cost than its non-hybrid equivalent. (Most of them have closer equivalents than the Prius and a loaded Corolla.) And we are now more than a decade out from the introduction of the first Prius.
Does that mean sellers should stop selling their current hybrids? Of course not.
But it does mean that only people like me who are willing, for whatever reason, to pay the "hybrid premium" will buy one today.
And it means that the folks who are projecting well over a decade before plug ins become the economical thing to do have at least one data point on their side.

Plus, as some other posters have pointed out, the environmental benefits of plug-ins depend a great deal on making the electric grid less dependent on fossil fuels.

Would I still like a plug-in? You bet. Will I buy one at what appear to be the introductory prices? Probably not--I will probably wait for the second generation so prices come down a bit. (Though my personal data point says that may be false--since I waited for the third generation of the Prius to go hybrid.)

 

Peak Oil:

How's THAT for being blunt. Pay up now ... or pay up later. Oh, I forgot ... forward / proactive thinking ... silly me. What was I thinking!? Better to over spend on a Vett ... or a 4x4 ... or moterhome pulling a toy box hauller.

No, there's no denying that poorer people will be less likely to be early adapters. but there'll always be early adapters ... whether it's a faster PC or faster car, or the latest/greatest green thing. But once cheep fossle fuel forever goes away? forget about it



.

 

The payoff isn't far off if they start taxing carbon emissions, especially if you do something to get yourself off the grid for electricity.

Wake up people that tax is coming, and if you buy your electricity from a coal burning source the plug in may end up even less attractive after the carbon tax!!

 

Actually, I am not concerned about saving gas or saving money. It is just for fun. I think a lot of you are in the same mode as me - or we could have all bought a gas only Yaris or Corolla, Civic etc.

I get on the HOV lane and save time daily.

400 miles between fill ups if I want - I'm not always looking for a pump.

It is sort of fun to be with a group of enthusiast - be part of a trend.

I like the looks and I like showing my friends I'm green.

I am protected if gas prices reaches $4 again - I know I did my best.

Based on that, I can live further out and live in a bigger house because I am not as concerned about the next gas crises.

Saving gas is a lot of fun. I know that saving gas is not the same as saving money. I feel less helpless and less dependent on one supplier (oil).

 

I agree with you on all the points you make.

My 07 Prius and current 2010 don't justify because i only drive about 6000 miles per year. If I like the plug in well enough when it comes out i will probably get one of them too, depending on what is going on with electric rates and the carbon tax. i like the Prius because they are fun to drive and play the mileage game even though it would be cheaper for me to buy a matrix, no way. The Prius is special, the matrix is just another cheap car.

 

The point is not to save money. The point is to reduce your carbon imprint and dependence on oil. Imagine the air quality improvement and reduction in global warming if everyone drove a hybrid. Not to mention the world's wars over oil.

 

There will be some plugins that will make sense and others may not. I don't think they should make a general statement like that.

 

My view is that the buying public is not ready and the technology is not ready at this point in time. But...these vehicles must be developed and put into service now in order to prepare for what we'll drive in 10-20 yrs.

Toyota's view which they've stated several times is that Li-Ions are not ready for prime time yet. Li-Ions still need to be developed, tested and then maybe even scrapped for something better. But right now the costs involved are HUGE in relation to NiMH batteries which are cost-effective and proven.

GM needs to make this work because it doesn't have a NiMH Prius or HCH/Insight II or FFH/FEH. Ditto Nissan. It's make or break for GM / Nissan.