Nissan Leaf vs Prius

yeah.

 

First of all you are speaking for yourself not for the demographic. Show us the statistics. Just because you don't drive much doesn't mean others don't. What about taxis and mincabs etc. Most people? Again you are talking about yourself.

There is no such a thing as peak because it will just rise and rise and rise but you seem to a prophet and predicting 10 This year.

 

Again I say: if you rarely drive over 100 miles, you don't need to BUY a 2nd car, you can RENT one for far, far less. And there are quite a few 2-car families out there already.

I won't get into the complete, absolute INSANITY of commuting 90+ miles each way every working day... That's 720 hours of your life in a car, PER YEAR. And how much do you spend on gas at $3/gallon?

It's true that the U.S. lacks the recharging infrastructure needed to make EV's easy for everyone to use - but 100 years ago, you couldn't find a gas station every 5 miles either.

 

I think he is talking about all the studies that have been done here that state most people do not go over 40 miles in a day (anywhere between 75% to 95%)

It makes sense most car leases (and used cars 3-5 yr old) have between 35k-50k miles 50k/5(yrs)/365=28 miles a day (with some days being lower and some days being higher)

It would be up to you to decide which particular car suits you, but with nissan looking a 50k for the first year there is a huge demand.

 

My daily commute is less than 10 miles per day. During the winter, my internal combustion engined vehicle doesn't even warm up fully - creating a very inefficient mode of operation and is tough on the car.

An EV solution is perfect for me. I've registered on the Nissan site to hopefully "reserve" an order next month. The $7,500 federal tax credit won't be there forever.

 

That is EXACTLY what I am talking about. I did not make up the %80 number, studies have been done. Yes, I wouldn't suggest cabbies get an EV - yet. Typical is people living in a ring suburb around a city, and commuting into the city, or to a train/buss station, then taking public transportation the rest of the way, if it's a long distance or parking is difficult (let me tell you about parking in downtown Boston sometime..)

I have a Prius, it's my third one in 10 years, however, if the Leaf was out, I would have bought it, and I do intend to lease one, as soon as they are available in the Northeast. If the car works well, I will be SELLING the 2010 Prius, there will be no need for it. My backup car is a 1994 Suburban that I plow with, which is good enough for the occasional longer drive.

Nissan will be able to make 150,000 per year, and 200,000 of the batteries in the new Smyrna, TN plant:

Nissan LEAF Electric Car | News | Nissan USA

"The loan will result in the creation of up to 1,300 jobs when the plants are operating at full capacity. Modification of the Smyrna manufacturing plant, which will begin later this year, includes a new battery plant and changes in the existing structure for electric-vehicle assembly. When fully operational, the vehicle assembly plant will have the capacity to build 150,000 Nissan LEAF electric cars per year, and the new plant will have an annual capacity of 200,000 batteries."

 

I wonder what they're going to do with the extra 50,000 batteries?

 

So it does not matter if 80% or 20% or even 5% of drivers could get used to a Leaf.

"In 2007, a total of 19.4 million new automobiles were sold in USA and Canada." - Wikipedia

At best, Nissan can make 0.2 million Leafs, so 1% of car owners can buy a Leaf each year.

(This does not mean the 'right' 1% will buy them. We will see GM astroturfers claiming to be angry owners whining that no one warned them it would need a 220 outlet, that a charge took 6 HOURS, and that the range was less in winter. Just wait)

 

Ship them to Japan and other countries where they are making Leafs? who know, but the batteries are key to the vehicle so being able to make more batteries than cars is a good thing.

 

According to Nissan/NEC test, the pack should last at least 7 years / 44k miles.

The power is also cut in half as you drain from 80% to 20% SOC. Hopefully they size the battery pack so at 20% SOC, it can still deliver maximum power (80kW) for the e-motor.

 

My round-trip commute is about 45 miles and that's on I95. I can take a highway, reduce the round-trip commute to 42 miles and take just a few minutes more.

My wife's round-trip commute is 40 miles highway.

With commutes, visits to friends and shopping trips we could do about 13,500 EV miles per year. Not bad for such a limited range.

One of those people who commute and never really warm up their car. The Leaf, as with other future EVs will allow you to preheat the cabin and I'd hope preheat the battery if necessary.

How long do you spend at your friends' houses? Ask them to let you plug in and offer to pay them for the electricity. It may only be 110V but each hour plugged in would still give you at least 5 miles. Offer to pay of course!

We have friends who are about 78 miles round trip away and we're usually there for a few hours so I figured that was doable. If it ever got close we could always take a shorter, slower route.

I'm not trying to persuade you to get one, just answering some of the points raised!

I agree that's a real selling point for EVs. You don't need to waste fuel or get cold refueling. I would still go to a gas station but that's because I walk or ride to a gas station to get their cheap milk!

The only issue for us with the Leaf is our current situation where we wouldn't be able to put the charger in the garage, but despite that if we hadn't replaced our cars recently (the Prius was already put off) I'd be all over a Leaf despite Maine's expensive electricity (and my wife's probable dislike - she doesn't like the Prius, I suspect she wouldn't like the Leaf although I think she supports the idea of EVs.)

 

your math only allows for 20 miles/day (44K miles in 7 years), I have heard rumors of a 10 year battery life, and I certainly hope it's way more than 44K miles, as that is not much. again, I have heard rumors that the pack will have a 10 year life, and won't matter how many charge/discharge cycles there is in those 10 years, so long as you don't deep discharge it.

 

Is any good information available about the following?

Cold Weather Operation
How significant is the effect of cold weather on energy use, power and range?
ICE and hybrid vehicles largely heat for free using waste heat rejected from the engine. (Battery powered cars will have to use some battery power, just to keep the car habitable)
It seems likely to me that the performance hit from cold weather will be much greater than with ICE and hybrid vehicles

Battery Life
What will the effect of fast charging on battery life?
My understanding is that the Prius battery is designed and controlled to provide an extended life and that this is practical because there is a second source of power and charge / discharge rates can be controlled.
It seems to me that with all power coming form battery storage and possible use of fast charging, the effect on battery life might be substantial.

Battery Cost pa
As pure electric cars need much larger batteries, their battery cost will presumably be much greater than a Prius battery.
If this is combined with a shorter lifespan, it willl presumably make battery wear a pretty significant cost.
It may also generate some difficulties and uncertainmties in assessing the value of second hand electric vehicles

 

Ironic about the bad math group.
If the average is 33.4 it doesn't mean that half drive more than that. That would be true if the median was 33.4 miles. You can't tell the distribution from the average. But since we know there are no negative milers and there are certainly many at 100 or more we know that more than 50% are below 33.4.

For example: (100 + 75 + 50 + 25 + x)/4 = 33.4. There is no value of x that makes sense. You need multiple values below 33.

3PriusMike

 

We've been using 240V in Europe for many decades now in Europe, it can be done.

 

Regarding wet conditions, I would have to assume the Nissan folks are familiar with the phenomenon known colloquially as "rain"...

I would guess they would have a handle which can only be connected by squeezing a trigger or something, and the current wouldn't be allowed to flow until after you let go.

As for getting a partial charge while visiting friends - that would depend on whether it can use a typical 110V/15A circuit and plug... The normal charging station (included in the $25K price) costs $2k installed separately.

And we will need to see more real-world mileage numbers - 100 miles is like the optimum range, and adverse conditions (highway speeds in rain, for example) would likely cut that considerably.

And while I don't think this car will meet the needs of "95%", I think a majority of drivers (meaning more than half) probably should take a closer look.

 

Good point. However, given the lack of information, further details about the median vs average and the distribution of daily mileage is not possible. Thus I assumed an even distribution, however I did not include "assuming an even distribution". My bad.
I suppose in order to avoid the 'bad at math' label we should also include description of the standard deviations and other such statistical details??

Your point is well taken though, MORE than half the people must drive under 33.4 miles per day as it will take more people under that mileage to average out the ones above.

 

You think the range of the car is going to take a 75-80% hit during the winter in northern states?

 

no. This is a new battery chemistry, and it is better behaved during lower tempatures than older or lead acid chemistrys that have existed up to this point.

there are threads on EVs here on Priuschat, there is discussion about it in those threads.