Oil prediction?

Consumption outstrips production, price goes up. Price goes up, consumption is temporarily limited and additional marginal resources are exploited. Price goes up far enough, consumption drops through structural changes in use and efficiency.

I doubt there is a doomsday scenario in the making. Just a back and forth tug of war where sufficient pain will drive permanent change as people get fed up.

I don't doubt we will hit 200 USD/barrel in the not too distant future, but that is hardly the end of the world. Unless you are driving a 1970 Chrysler New Yorker. (My first car!)

 

Actually this report came up in one of those elngthy 'environmental' discussions. The whole thing can be downloaded here:

ASPO International | The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas

It is a comprehensive look to the future, not just petroleum. Very interesting.

 

The price of oil is more complex than supply and demand. Speculation drives the price, too. And not just gas will go up - our whole economy is basically petro-based, so everything will get more expensive no matter what you drive. Those rare few who are able to grow some of their own food will be somewhat protected, or maybe just less hungry. Of course, if the price of oil were anywhere near the true cost, we'd have developed alternatives decades ago and be well on our way to sustainability by now.

 

Also interesting to note that the study was done by the US military. They probably use as much petroleum as anyone else. Gee, I guess their budget will have to go up.

 

all the more reason to get alternative (green) methods to power up the US electrical grid, and also good reasons to push EV technology as soon as possible, to reducle the number of ICE vehicles on the roads.

 

I believe I read that the US military is the single largest user of petroleum in the world.

 

This is one of the key reasons for the extention and stiffening of the CAFE program by Bush after Cheney and his Task Force made its conclusions known to him in lat 2006.

This is now the 3rd large organization to warn us.

1st was Toyota at NAIAS this past January.
2nd was Virgin Airways, 6 or 8 weeks ago.
Now the Pentagon...

I've never in my 60 yrs seen major companies or in this case the US Military come out and make the warning so specific.

Two words: Prepare yourself.

 

Now would be a good time to invest in crude oil.
(rhetorical only; not investment advice)

Because I literally just finished checking the price of crude oil (I follow it every day and hope it increases so that gasoline prices will increase so that hybrid sales will increase), the oil futures for May delivery closed at 85.51/barrel today, and oil futures for June delivery closed at $86.75/barrel today. In the summer, people tend to drive more, and gasoline and oil inventories tend to decrease in the summer; prices are higher. Over the past few weeks, gasoline inventories in the U.S. decreased (Americans drove more) and the prices recently went up as a result. At this time of the year, many refineries switch over from winter formulation to summer formulation (this also causes prices to increase).

A major event today: China met with Brazil to negotiate and secure long-term oil contracts (perhaps a future prediction that China's fuel demand will increase significantly (well, duh, considering their population and economic growth (11.9%, just reported yesterday))). *

*Only I end up in situations like this, where I am closing with a triple parenthesis

WHO NEEDS A CARPOOL LANE? HECK, NOT HAVING TO WAIT AN HOUR IN LINE TO BUY A RATIONED FIVE GALLONS OF GASOLINE IN 2015 WILL BE PRICELESS!!!!!

http://www.nissanusa.com/ev/media/images/backgrounds/bg-index-2.jpg

 

I found the PDF of the report at http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storyarchive/2010/JOE_2010_o.pdf.

The story made today at U.S. military warns of oil production shortage by 2015 — Autoblog Green but they didn't have a link to the Guardian article.

Perhaps this thread would be more widely viewed if it were titled w/that of the ABG or Guardian article...