Nissan Leaf vs Prius

Do you think the Nissan dealers will increase the price above the MSRP?

"2]Manufacturer's Suggested Retail Price. Dealer sets price."

 

ya, right.

allow me to clarify your statement

"what is a long way off is using EV technology without any compromise that benefits me 100%"

now for those of us who do compromise (some a little, some a lot) we have been using the benefit of much cleaner transportation that EV's provide for years, some of us for decades.

now, i could provide links to facts concerning pollution caused by process that puts gas in your tank. but i doubt that would make a difference to u and i dont mean exhaust fumes. that is nothing compared to the damage that a hundred million barrels of spilled oil has done to our environment.

the hundreds of billions of acres of the planet that can no longer support a healthy lifestyle. i am not really qualified to discuss the damage that has been caused by our using gasoline. i simply cannot think on that large of a scale. i do not fully understand what it is like to have my home destroyed by oil spills, drilling and other development.

i have never held my dying child in my arms. i have not lost the ability to feed and support my family because of the damage caused by oil. i have simply been relatively unaffected by the true cost of oil.

so i provide no links.

 

Gosh. I guess we have to wait around until Monday to get set straight.

 

I did find some numbers on lithium. According to LG a good number is 0.14 Kg of lithium per kwh in a battery pack. This means about 4kg (9lbs) of lithium in a 25kw battery pack for a Leaf type electric vehicle. To get this much lithium you need about 20kg of lithium carbonate which is around $8/kg or $150 per battery pack at today's prices. This leaves plenty of room for price inflation on lithium
while battery price go down.

Yes, the beaches in Texas are usable. There are occasional spills that need to be cleaned up. The big damages to our beaches are from hurricanes not oil.

 

That thought hadn't occurred to me; an agent provocateur, how original!

I can hear it now...

Daddy, what do you do at your job?

Well, I get paid to make trouble.
Some people would call me a snake in the grass or a dog in the manger.
I prefer devil's advocate, although some people would say that I'm in
bed with the devil.

Mommy! Daddy just called you the Devil.

 

Most offices have someone who causes trouble wherever they go. Some manager innocently wonders "Why can't Jimbo* cause our competitors as much trouble as he does us?", and a plan is born.



*Any name I used there was going to hurt some one's feelings, so I used mine. Sadly there are at least 14 other posters whose name starts with Jimbo here so I still hurt their feelings.

 

considering the reactiveness of Lithium; it is the most reactive metal (its a fairly common element but only found in compound form) its probably a relatively expensive process to separate it out. so the material cost is probably not as significant as the refining process.

oceans are self cleaning so small spills will take care of them selves. large spills can take years for the ocean to get back to a viable state but add decades in some instances to bring back the marine life. but like any prize fighter, the ocean can only recover some many times and each time the recovery time will be longer.

 

sure thing Dan, but the big advantage Nissan will have is, when then open their own battery plant in Tennessee within 2 years, they should be able to control the costs much more tightly, and control the mfr process as well.

 

The $10,800 price is Nissan's cost, for over the counter list price will be at least 2X the cost or > $21,600 for the replacement battery.

 

WOW.

 

Key words.

 

You mean when the battery capacity drops by 30% after 3 years of use in cold weather? LOL.

Expected price drop? LOL. We'll see about that. Of course the battery makers are going to say that. Of course Nissan is going to say that. Of course the Lithium suppliers are going to say that...hello? They all want you to buy their products. They KNOW that if the consumer has concerns that the replacement battery may cost > $10K, few are going to buy. This is a no brainer.

Here is what we know (as fact) right now - the cost of the battery in the Leaf is more that $10K. Lithium is a main ingredient in the battery used in the Leaf, and currently, the availabe supply for Lithium is limited. Beyond any of this, it's absolutley foolish to think the price will come sown significantly. The best you probably can hope for is that millions of EV's are NOT sold so that Lithium demand does not go through the roof, and the supply of Lithium can meet demand, thus stabalizing , or possibly allowing prices to decrease (somewhat). But don't expect marked drops in replacement batteries...you all need to build that into your calculations when trying to convince YOURSELVES that owning a Leaf will be cost effective in the long run. Please add an additional $10K for the battery replacement in 3-5 years, or learn to live with drammatically reduced capacity, and much shorter driving range. If those numbers work for you, that's great. But don't expect everyone to be convinced that the economics make sense...because for many of us, they don't.

 

Monday morning, right on cue.

Nice call. :clap2:

 

...and you add what? :rockon: Yep, that's what I thought. Thanks for coming.

...and the question regarded oil on Texas beaches. Already answered by another poster. Again, thanks for coming.

 

You may wish to read these, it underlies my belief that Leaf batteries will be cheaper in 10 years, no matter what their content is.

Simon-Ehrlich wager - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
http://gas2.org/2008/10/13/lithium-counterpoint-no-shortage-for-electric-cars/

The gold in my employers gold mine was found in the late 1800s, but was impossible to extract, with the technology of the time. (it is 1/10 an ounce per ton of ore) In the 1960s, plastics technology allowed the mining of the first 75 feet of the ore, in the 1980s, we developed a way to process ore that was not oxidized but sulfates. (It is 'brute force', we shoot 100% oxygen into it at 5 atmospheres of pressure, do not try this at home. YMMV) In the 2000s we added a way to process carbonaceous ore.

When I was hired in 1987, we had 12 million ounces in reserves. Today after 24 million ounces have been extracted, their reserves are 12.2 million ounces. They are developing technology as they need it. I would be amazed if lithium miners are significantly less motivated than gold miners.

 

Impressive, now you aren't just moving the goalposts, you have added two goalposts in the same paragraph!:thumb:

True, we don't know for a fact what battery prices will be sometime in the future. However, we do know the general behavior of prices of new technology and how economy in scale works in general.
You can dismiss those if you like, others will stick with reality.

 

Let's see. In 2008, outside the US (which doesn't report it because it is useful in nuclear weapons), 27400 metric tonnes were produced. Multiply 27400 metric tonnes by 2200 (approx) lbs divided by 9 pounds, equals 6,700,000 LEAF batteries per year. Do the same with the proven reserves according USGS of 4,000,000 metric tonnes equals over 102,000,000 LEAF batteries. Do the same with the the 230 billion tonnes in seawater, we get several trillion batteries. While lithium will not be used strictly for EV batteries there is plenty to spare. And that assumes no scientific advancements in battery technology that allow for the use of less lithium.