Just sharing - "Bell the Hybrid"

bwilson4web · Jun 18, 2010

This exchange from an open public list:

Sorry to be late, I've been looking at a technical problem with the built-in
car diagnostics bus and recently had a break through. My comments are
inserted in your note:

> From:
> To: [email protected]
> Date: Sun, 13 Jun 2010 23:07:42 -0400
> Subject: Re: [Quietcars] Passenger defeatable systems.
>
> Hi Bob,
>
> I've been quietly reading this list for several months. But I have a
> question. You mention that the data (the NHTSA report, I believe?)
> don't show that there are enough incidents between pedestrians and
> quiet cars to merit a 100% minimum sound standard.

Correct. In fact it turns out to be a general purpose approach that allows
early detection of problem vehicles without regard to the make and model. I
plan to run the analysis from 1995 to the most recent NHTSA FARS data, which
should include the 2009 soon.

>..so instead we
> should target the "danger points" -- turn signals, backup, etc. But
>the data aren't complete.

I know it seems contradictory but let me explain what "Incident of
Pedestrian and Bicyclists Crashes by Hybrid Electric Passenger Vehicles" DOT
HW 811 204 can and can not do. This report took the count of hybrid and an
equivalent non-hybrid or gas car incidents, the injury counts, which
typically are more than five times the rate of fatalities and summed them up
over the study interval 2001-07. But it did not count the number of hybrids
and gas vehicles in the study area, just the incidents. This means there is
no way to assert a relative risk of injury per type of vehicle. Let me give
an example:

If there were 75 hybrid incidents and 750 hybrids, there would be one injury
for every 10 hybrids by dividing 75 incidents by 750 hybrids. If there were
3,519 gas incidents and 35,190 gas cars, there would also be one injury for
every 10 gas cars. But what if there were twice as many hybrids in the pool,
1,500, without changing the number of gas cars?

In this case, the hybrid accident rate would be only one injury for every 20
hybrids, 75 divided by 1500, or twice as safe as the gas cars that remain at
one injury for every 10 gas cars. I did a similar analysis for fatalities of
the Prius between 2001 and 2007 and found the Prius has half the USA
fatality rate at the USA fleet reported by the NHTSA.

By misinterpreting the data from DOT HW 811 204, we are blind to the
vehicles that are causing higher fatality and injury rates. This is why a
false killer accusation is doubly bad because not only is an innocent being
accused but folks stop looking for the real killer(s). Sad to say, I saw
Sen. Kerry claim 'hybrids have twice the hazard' when he supported the
Senate substitute bill that includes the Stearns language.

But DOT HW 811 204 does have utility in suggesting (the numbers are terribly
small,) that backing and turning incidents within the hybrid incidents are
relatively high. The flaw was straight line incidents where hybrids are
relatively safe, was ignored. Both turning and backing incidents are
associated with what today are silent, warning lights. What is maddening is
there is a relay 'click' in the cabin and the Prius has a beep within the
cabin. For technical reasons, I believe the relay click, colocated to these
'silent' lights makes a lot of sense for all vehicles, not just hybrids. But
even DOT HW 811 204 does not support a claim that straight-line hybrids need
noise.

> . . . Imagine this: I'm a blind person walking to work. I'm walking
> down the sidewalk when all of a sudden I hear brakes to my right, look
> closely, and see a car a few inches from my cane.
> After giving a dirty look (and maybe thumbs down?) to the driver who
> has floored their car out of a parking garage without mind for
> potential pedestrians, I go on my way. The data aren't likely to show
> this incident.

Actually the same data that is being misquoted by Sen. Kerry also says the
hybrids in a straight line are safer than the gas car.

> . . . Some luck saved my cane -- and probably me -- from a collision.
> I didn't stop to write down the license plate, make, model, etc.
> (nevermind that I probably couldn't see well enough to do that on my
> own anyway), and there's nothing to do with the info other than report
> a close-call to this group. Are you saying that we need more violent
> incidents before we should require a minimum sound standard for cars?

I think we need to use the available data to identify the real killer cars
... the ones whose fatality rate is higher than the national pool. More
importantly, it needs to be done as soon as possible after a new model is
introduced instead of waiting until the annual rate makes it impossible to
ignore the obvious. So let me ask you the same question, slightly
differently.

Do you think it is better to let killer cars get a pass while legislating
noise makers on the Prius that has half the fatality rate?

> . . . You don't seem like somebody who would think that, but that's
> the essence of my question...blunt as it may be.

Actually, my question is double-blunt because we have the NHTSA FARS data
needed to identify killer cars. Sad to say, DOT HW 811 204 has been abused
to assert a conclusion not supported by the evidence, the facts and data. So
far, the Prius appears to have half the fatality rate of the USA fleet,
which means there are killer cars out there and in this effort, being
ignored. Those are the cars you'll hit with your cane . . . if you are still
able.
Click to expand...

This is a real and recent exchange. I want folks to understand why this is to important. Yes, I can live with the "Bell the Hybrid" but it means the eyes and minds that should be looking for the real pedestrian killers are ignoring the problem for another 2-4 years.

Bob Wilson

TonyPSchaefer · Jun 18, 2010

There's a reason why pedestrians have the right of way. There's a reason why the vehicle would be at fault if the pedestrian got hit. I have seen far more conventional vehicles flying out of parking garages than i have seen hybrids. I have seen far more reckless conventional vehicles than I have hybrids.

bwilson4web · Jun 19, 2010

TonyPSchaefer said: ↑

There's a reason why pedestrians have the right of way. There's a reason why the vehicle would be at fault if the pedestrian got hit. I have seen far more conventional vehicles flying out of parking garages than i have seen hybrids. I have seen far more reckless conventional vehicles than I have hybrids.
Click to expand...

There is data that suggests drivers of some demographics are significantly safer than others. From what I've seen of our self-polls, today's Prius owners tend to be:

better educated

better off financially

a little older

technically sophisticated

internet aware (opps, the problem of a self poll!)

Bob Wilson

johalareewi · Aug 24, 2010

No it is not April 1st

Toyota To Sell Approaching Vehicle Audible Alert System - Toyota Owners Club - Toyota Forum

MJFrog · Aug 24, 2010

johalareewi said: ↑

No it is not April 1st

Toyota To Sell Approaching Vehicle Audible Alert System - Toyota Owners Club - Toyota Forum
Click to expand...

And more links:
[FONT=Verdana,Sans-Serif,Arial]Prius gets sound option to protect pedestrians[/FONT]

Video Demonstration of the device

teeasal · Aug 24, 2010

johalareewi said: ↑

No it is not April 1st

Toyota To Sell Approaching Vehicle Audible Alert System - Toyota Owners Club - Toyota Forum
Click to expand...

Darn! I should've patented my ideas first. I posted here asking Toyota to redirect the reverse beeps to OUTSIDE the car; and I was wondering what to install in place of those 2 ugly fog-lamp covers and I came up with the idea of installing engine-sound similating speakers / animal warning horns.

teeasal · Aug 24, 2010

MJFrog said: ↑

And more links:
[FONT=Verdana,Sans-Serif,Arial]Prius gets sound option to protect pedestrians[/FONT]

Video Demonstration of the device
Click to expand...

Instead of making silly whirring sounds they should make the Prius "TALK" to pedestrians in Bugs Bunny's voice like, "'Scuse me, pardon me, I'm sorry, coming this way, thank you, 'Scuse me, pardon me...."

Hey, that's a good after market potential. Ask Toyota to make the sound downloadable like iTunes or cellphone ringtones. (more cha-ching!)

Hmm, I'm afraid some may hack it into "GIT OTTA MY WAY, PUNK"

Just sharing - "Bell the Hybrid"

bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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Just sharing - "Bell the Hybrid"

bwilson4web BMW i3 and Model 3

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