Toyota Expect To Sell 20k Plug In Prius In US

I never really intended to update my Prius until it was falling apart, but the plug-in does sound tempting...

Now if their partnership with Subaru would produce Legacy/Outback hybrids, I'd be really happy.

 

So much depends on the price of gas. If it stays where it is, and the cost of the plug-in is ~ $4K more than a comperably equiped G3...then a sales target of 20K might be optimistic.

 

GC,

I do this for a living. The price point for a car like this is critical to sales volume. Look at what specific models of the G3 sell the best here in the US. They are NOT the gadget-rich IV and V models, but the cheaper II and III. Yes, there will be people that will buy this car no matter what the price is...but many of those will fall into that 20K number that Toyota (themselves) are estimating. Many of these same people who might consider the plug-in, could just as well opt for the Leaf, or any of the all electric car solutions coming on the market.

FYI - I already have a G3, so I'm not looking to buy another. But, for the person that is, the thought process will go something like this: If I have to pay an additional $4K to get the plug-in, at current gas prices (or anything close to what they are now)...I will never come close to recouping the difference (assuming 50 MPGs vs say, 75 MPGs). Do the math...the typical driver in the US averages 12K miles/year. Assume we compare 50 MPGs for the G3 and (I'll be generous) 85 MPGs for the plug in. That works out to a gas savings in one year of about ~ 98 gallons of gas. At event $3/gallon (it's currently $2.55 where I live)...that's about $300 savings per year from the G3 to the G3 plug-in. However, if gas prices over here begin to approach $4/gallon, then the payback period begins to make economic sense.

As far as the carbon output savings. Been debated to death. It very much depends upon the source of your electricity. If, as it is in much of the mid-Atlantic/NE states, derived from fossil fuel...then the Carbon savings are negligible, at best. In fact, some studies I have seen from Federal Laboratories, have it as higher carbon output. But regardless, unless you derive your electricity from "clean/green" sources, then the carbon savings are minimal.

The style and techno-gear will be the same in both the G3 and the plug-in G3, so that's a wash.

If it's cutting edge you want, then suggest a different approach - wait a few more years (as I am) to see what "all electric" options are available.

 

Nope.

 

GC,

As to my point about price - I spend a lot of time in my car, and having all the lattest gadgets and comforts is important to me. Out the door (taxes, etc), I paid just over $30K for my IV. Would I pay $35K for the same car, but plugs in...so that I can save 100 gallons of gas per year?

Not likely.

 

The Chevy Volt won't really be much of a competitor to Toyota. Mostly due to the price and limited volume. Even if every single Chevy Volt sold took away one Prius sale from Toyota, it still wouldn't cut into their sales figures too much.

However - Nissan may very well be cutting into Prius sales with the Leaf. So I would say the Plug-in Prius will be the only near-term competitor Toyota will have. And truth be told, I'd probably be interested in the PHV model myself, but the Leaf will be available a lot sooner, so that is what I'm going with.

As for those who want to justify the cost.. Well, all I have to do is look out the window here at my office and see the parking lot. Right now I can see 4 Chevy Tahoes, several large high-end pickup trucks, and a few luxury sedans. My leaf will cost less than all of those vehicles. So I don't feel I need to justify anything to anyone. After all, if all I cared about was saving money, I'd be driving a beat-up, used Geo Metro or something like that.

 

The phv prius can't be terribly more expensive than the prius. There is a matrix of the leaf, volt, phv prius, and prius. These are on a continuum of gas usage, and driving habits as well as how ugly or pretty you think the cars are make a big difference.

 

I think the article said (from a Toyota spoksperson) the difference would be between $3K-$5K. I took the average of $4K.

Not that long ago, when Toyota was about the only hybrid game in town...I think more people would have been willing to pay the premium. But that's no longer the market that Toyota finds itself competing in. The market segment is being fragmented into multiple buying options, and as long as gas prices remain anywhere near what they are now, new customers (in significant volume) will not enter the market looking to buy hybrid/electric. Without a major financial incentive, I know many that are taking a wait and see attitude...putting off their car buying decision for a few years to see what shakes out. That's sort of where I am....

The bottom line - I think most of us would like to see the hybrid/electric segment of the market substantially grow. That said, IMO, inorder for that to happen we need two things: (1) Prices for those cars need to be affordable compared to other car options, and (2) The price of gas needs to go back up. I'm not sure that either catalyst, by itself, will grow this segment of the car market.

 

With government incentives just under $3K for the phv prius, even a $5K differencial is going to move people into the car. One part of the hybrid premium is the options that you are forced to buy. If Toyota forces everyone to buy expensive options that they don't want, or prevents them from buying options they do want that differential gets higher. I think more people would buy prii if they could get the sport package, that is steering, Wheels, and LED headlights, fog lights with the option to buy ATP, without being forced to buy leather and upgraded stereo. We just need to wait and see what is offered.

I don't think the price of gasoline needs to get higher to get people into phevs or bevs, the $7,500+ government incentives are enough. The problem is really getting the desirable cars out there. If the Leaf doesn't sell, it may not be because its electric but more likely because of the styling and range anxiety.

 

I'm not talking incentives, because incentives come and go. It's a one time blip....much like the "cash for clunkers" program. Not to mention that if Obama doesn't get re-elected, there might not even be much of a push to get more electrics on the road. If you're depending on the Government to drive/push people's buying habits, you will be greatly disappointed.

Your comment about, "even a $5K differencial is going to move people into the car", is nebulous. Sure it will "move people into the car". But the question is - how many? By Toyota's own projections, it's on the order of 20K. IMO, that's almost in the noise. I've been talking about what it will take to "significantly" expand this segment of the market...and 20K, 30K or 40K is not going to get it done. But higher gas prices will.

I have no idea how well the Leaf will sell, but I do know that the price point is a major factor in how well it will sell, If Nissan had been foolish enough to price it anywhere near what the Volt will be selling for, the Leaf would become just another niche car...and would do little to significantly broaden this segment of the market.

 

I only partially agree with what you say. True, high gas prices would definitely give a HUGE boost to electric car and PHEV sales. But I think there is more to it than that. I think a lot of people would buy electric cars if they were on lots and knew that they existed. Most people are oblivious.

Then, of course, there are people who want their gas-guzzling land-barges and it really doesn't matter how expensive gas gets, they will just keep paying it. The guy who can afford the Cadillac Escalade or the Hummer can probably afford the gas.

Part of it also has to do with the "coolness" factor. The Leaf is primarily selling on the fact that it is an electric car. If the car were a gas powered car, I doubt it would sell all that well simply based on its exterior shape and style.

So, when they start coming out with sports cars that are really cool looking, that just happen to be electric... Think Tesla roadster only made into a larger, more usable car in the $35,000 price range. Or, a Jeep Wrangler or something similar that appeals to that group of people, only happens to be electric. And eventually, God forbid, some larger SUV's and pickup trucks that are electric. When we get to that point, to where people see a car that they like, then find out that it is electric, they'll test drive one.. they'll talk to the sales person and say, "tell me about this car." and so on. But right now, most of these vehicles we are talking about, the people buying them have already done their research and the want the vehicle BECAUSE it is electric, not in spite of it.

So, it will take a while.. Give it another 10 years. At that point, there should be an EV for everyone's taste on dealer lots.

 

That would be YOUR preferred package I don't want the sport package, fancy bigger wheels, nor do I want leather or a sun/moon roof. Give me SKS on 3 doors, LED lights (skip the fogs if they are as useless on the Gen III as they are on the Gen II).

Unfortunately, I don't see Toyota changing their methods. There will be no "Select ONLY the options you want and put them on a base PHEV Prius".

If I got to choose what I wanted, they would put the Gen II dash in a Gen III PHEV. Audio and climate functions on the MFD. No stupid space wasting, knee hugging, storage area blocking arch. Open the cockpit back up and bring back the ergonomic 'eyes barely off the road' controls.

 

I'd not heard of the rav4 electric except some old variant. That could be interesting.

 

Toyota is predicting about 20K to be sold in the US. I have assumed that they know their market a lot better than anybody here. That said, there are a lot of variables in trying to estimate that number, including the demand (that will siphon away Prius buyers) for such cars as the Leaf and other EV/hybrid vehicles. If the price of gas were to significantly go up, there is no question that many more buyers would jump into the hybrid/EV market....than might otherwise if gas prices remain (relatively) low.

IMO, if the true cost for the plug-in, or EV (after all the incentives have gone away) is at, or exceeds the magical $30K mark, buyers will not flock (in quantity) to this segment...UNLESS gas prices take a significant turn upwards.

At sales volumes of around 20K, it becomes a drop in the bucket. Fortunately, Toyota has enough staying power, that they can continue to offer a vehicle, in low volume, for quite a few years.

Until such time as people's fears about EV's have been calmed, and folks have begun to be weened from wanting large, high horsepower machines...the market segment will not significantly grow. People's attitudes have to change. And the best way to do that, IMO, is through their wallet.

Again, I'm not talking about low volumes of these types of cars...there will always be a certain (small) segement of the population that wants them...at any price.

 

In what way does $3/gallon not make economic "sense?"