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Bob Lutz: A CAFE level of 42 mpg is "totally ridiculous"

Discussion in 'Other Cars' started by cwerdna, May 13, 2011.

  1. cwerdna

    cwerdna Senior Member

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    Our comical friend, Lutz, is back in the news again. :)

    Bob Lutz: A CAFE level of 42 mpg is "totally ridiculous" — Autoblog Green
    Another quote from him "but an arbitrary fleet average of 42 mpg is totally ridiculous. Nobody knows how to do a full-line fleet with the equivalent of 42 miles per gallon."

    Solution seems pretty simple to me: besides making the rest of the lineup more efficient, ditch all those monstrosity class battering rams of death or produce so few of them that they impact an automakers CAFE numbers very little.
     
  2. UsedToLoveCars

    UsedToLoveCars Active Member

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    Well... I think 50-60mpg is the upper limit for mpg for a prius-sized car.

    get into family hauler range like the prius V and you're down to 40 or less.

    Pickup trucks? I'm sure there will be some kind of loophole for commercial vehicles. So it seems doable. Lutz needs to head back to the nursing home.

    The problem is nobody that owns monster SUVs wants to get rid of them - they seem to love them so.

    I'm kinda relishing watching these tools suffer from high gas prices.
     
  3. john1701a

    john1701a Prius Guru

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    Toyota is currently demonstrating that an affordable +75 mpg option for Prius is realistic. We know that the same plug technology can be used in the bigger v model too.

    Any particular reason for the exclusion of plug-ins?

    With smaller vehicles becoming popular, the upcoming smaller Prius could have quite an impact on fleet average too.
    .
     
  4. cwerdna

    cwerdna Senior Member

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    Keep in mind 42 CAFE mpg is NOT what you see on the sticker. See my links at http://priuschat.com/forums/other-c...-than-most-hybrids-out-there.html#post1325484 about the doublespeak.

    From my rough estimate, it should translate to about 29-30 mpg combined on the sticker as the weighted average mileage for a given automaker. (I extrapolated the loss from the Prius value below and it getting 50 mpg combined on the sticker.)

    The 3rd gen Prius already gets 70.7791 mpg for CAFE purposes. The TCH gets 45.9416 mpg for CAFE purposes. See Download Fuel Economy Data.

    Prius v w/40 mpg combined should somewhere over 50 mpg for CAFE purposes. The 02 Prius is rated 41 mpg combined (after adjustment to the new method) yet counted as getting "57.5685 mpg" for CAFE purposes.

    From http://www.nhtsa.gov/staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/2011_Summary_Report.pdf (linked to from Fuel Economy | National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)), Toyota gets these numbers for its 3 fleets (DP, IP and LT) 32.2 mpg, 41.1 mpg, 25.9 mpg (all in CAFE terms).
     
  5. Flaninacupboard

    Flaninacupboard Senior Member

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    I find bob lutz to be totally ridiculous.

    It's quite simple, the majority of the fleet needs to be prius MPG or less. that means you have to (and so do other car makers) sell lots and lots of midsize and compact hybrids, phevs, turbo-super-DI etc, and only a few big ugly monsters. that makes the big ugly mosters rare, and more epxensive. you can make a ton of profit on them, even more than you do now. you just need to figure out how to make a profitable midsize hybrid, which is GM's real problem.
     
  6. cyclopathic

    cyclopathic Senior Member

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    42 CAFE.. it is like what? 30MPG in EPA numbers?

    Just stop making SUFs
     
  7. spwolf

    spwolf Senior Member

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    complete article from him is full of crap, lots of lies and deceit in there, i dont know if he just lies or if he is too old to remember.
     
  8. GrumpyCabbie

    GrumpyCabbie Senior Member

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    This guy inhabits Planet Bob, population 1!
     
  9. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    To repost something I wrote a year ago:

    I very much doubt it. See 'Better Mileage Now", Scientific American, Feb. 2010, pg. 50. The author is a Honda VP.

    Page 52 has a laundry list of improvements studied recently by NHTSA. Prius has only half of them, leaving room for another 20 to 35% improvement from this list alone.
     
  10. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    I think Lutz is right. So long as we assume the current size mix of vehicles in the US fleet, 42 mpg CAFE is really optimistic. Regulation will not make much of a difference; people will have to make different transport choices, and fuel cost is the only meaningful driver.

    The current game is completely ridiculous. People demand that the gubmint increase fuel economy; the gubmint throws out regulations and the manufacturers remind the gubmint of the people's choices. Result: fuel economy sucks, but special interests influence and bureaucracy balloon.
     
  11. cyclopathic

    cyclopathic Senior Member

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    There has to be a break through to considerable MPG gains in "people movers" - minivan sized vehicles. And there has to be a cultural shift to from SUV/truck segment which has horrid aerodynamics, and they are much harder to fix.

    Can't wait to see what type of MPG the hydraulic hybrid minivan will get.
    http://priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-news/93266-hybrid-minivan-coming-no-not-hev.html
     
  12. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    High fuel costs. Everything else is pissing in the wind.
     
  13. tomlouie

    tomlouie Member

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    Try this one on for insanity. Oregon has recently passed legislation to charge electric car owners an annual fee based on miles driven that year:

    Road User Fee Pilot Program Road User Fee Task Force
     
  14. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    ^^ That is not insanity. EV drivers use the roads but do not pay for upkeep through the petrol tax.

    The insanity is subsidized petrol, and keeping a military to insure the oil flow.
     
  15. cyclopathic

    cyclopathic Senior Member

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    yeah but do you remember what happened to Clinton's BTU tax? Ross Perot 50c gasoline tax?

    Or what GM/Chrysler did in 2003-2008 when prices on gas were going up? they were cranking out SUVs and guess what? people were buying them. What will you do if you don't have a choice?

    High fuel prices are necessary, but not enough by itself.
     
  16. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    Are you trying to convince me that Americans do not want to pay for their choices ? That much is obvious; the sadder point is the rampant stupidity that they think they are succeeding.

    There are almost *always* choices. I say almost, because death is inevitable. Carpool. Combine trips. Use a condom. Move. Lose weight. Worse comes to worse, drive slower or pick a small car -- god forbid. Just because people *chose* to live to suburbia and exurbia does not now mean there is not a price.
     
  17. cyclopathic

    cyclopathic Senior Member

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    well even with death you still have a choice, since you may choose lifestyle which would kill you faster?

    It is not a question of having a choice, point is that in many cases it is a hobbesian choice.
     
  18. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    From wikipedia:

    Anyway, none of the choices I outlined above are Hobson's choices. A person's unwillingness to pick alternatives does not eliminate their existence.
     
  19. xs650

    xs650 Senior Member

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    EV owners should still pay to use roads even if they don't pay taxes at the pump and they are convinced their sh*t doesn't stink.
     
  20. SageBrush

    SageBrush Senior Member

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    So long as we are remembering the Volt hype machine, we can all laugh at the fanboi confidence that the Volt was the 'new' GM. Crossover SUV, anybody ?