GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovations

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

It is already cost comparable, even if you don't add in the environmental costs of other enery sources! Take away subsidies for other energy sources and it is cheaper (even if you also eliminate the subsidy for solar).

Icarus

 

I work in the solar industry. I don't know all the particulars, but the article is generally true. I think the timeline they give is probably a little overly-optimistic.

What I do know for sure is that the solar industry is expanding vastly. GE does plan to build large factories, and thin film does have the lowest cost per watt of any photovoltaic technology.

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

He is being promoting not realistic. He talks about costs of $0.15 /kwh. This is much more expensive than natural gas. What is missed though is examples like California which does not produce enough power for its residents. Power is imported from far away and often from expensive sources so retail prices can be higher than this for solar. Large increases in the price of natural gas and/or a large carbon tax is the only way solar can be cheaper than gas in the 3-5 year period.

$0.15/kwh can greatly expand california's solar especially with the other government sweeteners of subsidies and low interest loans to home and business owners. This does require massive amounts of government money and a smart grid that can handle distributed power.

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

He is not being overly optimistic.

Our rate is $0.09.75/kWh. But if you add distribution charge, taxes, etc 1000kWh would cost $151. If you have an arrangement with utility to sell surplus back, $0.15/kwh would actually make economic sense.

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

Average retail cost in the US is $0.11/kwh including distribution and profits to the utilities. The wholesale cost of natural gas power is less than $0.07/kwh where there adequate power plants. Residential and business solar still requires the grid, in fact if it gets high penetration it requires smart grid improvements that GE's pac is asking for. I think we need these improvements for future renewable power, but we should not fool ourselves into thinking that $0.15 is less than $0.07. In places like california there are shortages and peak power purchases from out of state can exceed the $0.15.

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

check rates: Electric Power Monthly - Average Retail Price of Electricity to Ultimate Customers by End-Use Sector, by State
there are more states besides CA where $0.15 makes sense. Alaska and pretty much all of NE and Mid-Atlantic.

with respect to natural gas, $0.07/kWh is great but it is a wholesale, add another $0.03-6/kWh in taxes, profits and distribution charges.

No arguing that at $0.10/kWh solar will be viable in alot more places.

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

I'm just using CA as an example of a place where the utilities don't work and $0.15 solar should work well. There are other places as well, I did not mean to imply there were not.

This varies from place to place. As I said distribution is still needed with solar and may be more expensive, but this likely will not be charged to solar providers. I don't know whether the EIA $0.1099 estimate includes taxes, so you can add those on. Since I don't think solar will get to be more than 2% in the next decade those other customers can absorb the costs, but if it becomes a major part of the grid charges will start coming. Currently my local grid adds much more subsidies to solar to help meet the goal of 3% by 2020, and drop in costs will allow these subsidies to drop. We already have a smart grid here so those costs are already in the system.

Yes and $0.15 is an optimistic projection. I do support solar subsidies and mandates.

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

Tax the carbon of coal and natural gas generation at somewhere near it's environmental cost,, and it it a no brained. Going forward, certainly nat gas is going to get more expensive as the costs of extraction and demand goes up, further allowing solar to compete.

Icarus

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

here how distribution works: there is no charge if you produce and consume right away. If you have to push it to grid and then take it back you pay. Co-worker looked into getting wind turbine and to avoid paying distribution charges the battery bank made economic sense.

It looks like it does

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

Well he did say it *may* be cheaper and the he was *hopeful* the cost would come down to 15 cents. So it sounded to me like he added enough of the usual corporate R&D weasle words. The thin film tech is interesting. At one point I tried to buy some from Ebay for my solar power canoe project (that is going nowhere). But I guess its not like the standard solar panels.

 

Re: GE Global Research Director says solar may be cheaper than fossil fuels in 3-5 years due innovat

Certainly a carbon tax would shift this, but no one can figure out how high it should be. Remember they are talking about at most $0.05/kwh of coal, and I servilely doubt something that high would pass. That makes it just over a penny for combined cycle gas. Certainly natural gas has been tripple this price, but it does not need to go up, and needs to be triple in 5 years with a nickle a kwh carbon tax on coal to get near the highly optimistic estimate of solar. That does not mean that with the subsidies for solar, and highly inefficient distribution in states like california does not make more solar economical for some end users today. But the GE statement is purely marketing talk.