Is Climate Change in any way shape or form related to more tornadoes?

Actually they do. They only looked at the data in south.

2004 and 2005 were bad years for tornadoes north (Ohio/Mid-Atlantic), we had a town leveled in 2005 by F5 a few miles south. F5 came ~3-4mi south from my house. Another one F1 went over my house in 2001 cutting through house across the street and damaging one behind. Drove through one in 2004, about 5min after touchdown.. have somewhere pictures of tractor trailer cut through in the middle, laying on the side on I-81.

Shifting severe weather to north would be consistent with El Nino/La Nina jetstream shift.

What NOAA needs to do is to look at correlation btw jetstream and tornado formation. Trying to correlate it to AGW would be like tying it up to Kevin Bacon.

Oh please.. don't be modest! do not give credit to others.. it is rightfully yours

 

I understand that the picture is far more complex when you are looking at dynamic model. Some microscale artifacts down to field color, temp, etc would influence formation. At some point it is like looking at bubble formation in overheated liquid, you have to have impurities for bubbles to form.

However from what you described as conditions which favor tornado formation, they somewhat similar to what you find in with jetstream. It would not be surprising to find some degree of correlation btw those.

 

Heres 1960 and 1990

 

Dozens of tornadoes kill at least 297 people in South - USATODAY.com

CensusScope -- Population Growth

Data by county:

48% of population and majority of state growth in top 8 counties.
counties have at least 100,000 making improbable that tornado will go undetected.

 

Remember that 'everyone' said that Hurricane Katrina was caused by climate change and that many more were soon to come. The frequency of major hurricanes has been low ever since. Weather is not equal to climate.

 

"THE DOWNTURN IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH WARMING The bottom panel of following graphic shows what most meteorologists already know: there has been a downward trend in strong (F3) to violent (F5) tornadoes in the U.S. since statistics began in the 1950s. As seen in the top panel, this has also been a period of general warming. For those statistics buffs, the correlation coefficient is -0.31. Obviously, the conclusion should be that warming causes fewer strong tornadoes, not more. (Or, maybe a lack of tornadoes causes global warming!)"
Today’s Tornado Outlook: High Risk of Global Warming Hype « Roy Spencer, Ph. D.

 

This of course is the same Roy Spencer who doesn't believe in evolution. Feel free to draw your own conclusions. (I could get the same tornado predictions from the channel 5 weather girl in St. Louis!

 

I don't give a flying fuk if he's a nazi.
He's a scientist first and you are avoiding facts and creating a STRAWMAN.
So now dispute the facts .

 

If you can't dispute the facts,then please STFU.
Do you want to find truth ,or do you want to be a mindless cheerleader?
Try sticking to facts.
I'm as leftwing as you are Icarus.
I'm agnostic.
I've read Spencers book and he never mentions religion.

 

Being a Nazi is unrelated to this field. Not accepting evolution casts serious doubt on his abilities as scientist. If there is a strawman argument, it's your Nazi comment.

Tom

 

My my, did I strike a nerve? Such a strident reaction!

My point is, how can one consider the veracity of a "scientist" when he doesn't believe in one of the fundamental tenants of modern science. A PHD does not imply any competence as a scientist, even if as Bill Nye would say, he has a degree "IN SCIENCE"!

And last but not least, follow the money:

George C. Marshall Institute board member
Spencer is a board member of the George C. Marshall Institute [23] At

So,, I will agree to disagree on Spencer's veracity.

(Source= Roy Spencer - SourceWatch)

Icarus

PS. Like I said earlier, I could get the same map of tornado activity potential from any and every TV weatherman (woman) in the country in the past few days! Big, freakin' Whoop!

 

For what it may be worth, wiki says 72 F3 through F5 tornadoes so far in 2011. Unless the season shuts off early, 2011 will at least be among the recent worsts.

As we have now seen posted, and without dispute, US springtime temperatures increasing over the indicated period, would it be too much to assert that we here at PriusChat have gotten past the 'it's not warming' meme? If so, I'd like to be the first to thank mojo.

 

As I understand it a number of factors contributed to the high number of tornados so far this year.
Two of them are the high level of snow pack still present over large areas of the NW US and, the higher than normal temperature of the gulf of mexico.
Increased water cycle (among other things) led to the heavy snowfall this year and the warming of the gulf waters is also a result of climate change (among other factors).
So yes, I would say that climate change contributed to the number of tornadoes in some shape or form.
It wasn't the ONLY factor, but is a contributing factor IMO.

 

A mainstream media article in today's paper headlined "Scientists link extreme weather to global warming"

A 'graph on note "Climate change can enhance one precursor of tornados while diminishing another one " we need more data and modeling before we can say for sure what effect will dominate" Katharine Hayoe, climate scientist Texas Tech. U.

Extreme weather's frequency to increase | McClatchy

Icarus

 

The way the question is phrased "Is Climate Change in any way shape or form related to more tornadoes?" it would be extremely difficult to prove otherwise. There is no requirement to be "directly connected" or "strongly connected" or "somewhat connected", just any connection would do.

There is no denial it is Kevin Bacon fault.

 

Even if it shuts down right now its number 8 on the list of worst years. We should understand that it is the only year in the last 30 years that makes the list of top 25. If warming was at the root of the increase this data is at odds.

I'm suprised at you, mojo is not the only doubter, but I would hope others would look at the temperature record. Spencer did good reserarch in the satellite record that shows gw, he just thinks most of it is not caused by man. I would think at a minimum we could come to have the skeptics believe anouther skeptics figure.

But since we are on this thread, I hope you will read the noaa reaserch which shows no trend, and weigh in on the evidence that scientifically there is no evidence climate change is increasing the severity or number of tornados.

Did you read the article? It said that percipitation pattern changes can be linked to global warming, but did not have any evidence that tornados. Some scientist has a new explanation of how this might change, but it would require that this year is the start of a trend, there is no trend in the tornado data.

 

Yes I read the article,, that is why I posted it. One cannot ( as if now) draw a direct line from global warming to increased tornadic activity. One can look at the anecdotal evidence over the years and come away with the idea that they MAY very well be connected. To point to any given single weather event, and attribute it to climate change is silly. Looking at years of significant weather anomolies and it becomes clearer to connect the dots.

Icarus

 

At least in terms of climate change, anecdote is easily misunderstood, and often wrong. It is January, it is extra cold, it cannot be possible that golbl warming can be true.

It is July, it is extra cool, it can not be possible that global warming is true.

The reality, is tht most Americans have very little knowledge about the world as a whole. We tend to look only into our own backyards for evidence of world wide phenomena. Here. Is a hint folks, the world is a big place, and North American is only a small part of it!

All thaqt said, anecdote, followed by anecdote, followed by anecdote, may denote a trend.

Icarus

 

exactly true. We must look at the temperture trend which is warming. On Tornados we must look at the tornado trend which is not statistically significantly changing, but if we look at direction the trend is slightly downward on major tornados.

Definitely, but when it comes to severe tornados NA is the most importand region.

You were doing so well. I think we have a large number of bad tornados this year, more than any year since I've been alive. But these anecdotes should not change the historical trend.