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Sunspot Cycle appears broken at 24-cycles

Discussion in 'Environmental Discussion' started by wjtracy, Jun 14, 2011.

  1. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    The familiar 11-yr sun spot cycle appears possibly heading for an inactive cycle last seen the 1650-1700's mini-ice age. However, some believe the any cooling effect would be small and temporary...but hey it can't hurt, right?

    Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots - Yahoo! News

     
  2. mojo

    mojo Senior Member

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    You beat me to it.Piers Corbyn stated this a few months ago.Recently Ive counted maybe 20 sources from NASA to various Astrophysicists and Solar physicists who are in agreement.
    We are entering a mini Ice Age for the next 20-30 years or more.
    Unless we are entering a full blown Ice Age which is eminent.
    Full blown Ice Age,when it arrives ,takes from 3 to 20 years to manifest itself.
    At that point there will be 1-2 mile thick glaciers over NYC.
    Hopefully we wont witness that.
    Anyway the AGW FUD has been canceled by Mother Nature.
    GAIA says you AGW doomers are full of BS and is about to cool the planet.
    I hope its not the case but there will be, massive crop losses resulting in hunger and rioting and death by starvation.
    Hows that for FUD Sagebrush?You dished out FUD,now eat it.
    But most are calling for a mini Ice Age .Thats the best scenario.Lets hope for that.
    BTW
    Amount of Galactic Cosmic Rays are a geological historical proxy of Earths temp and Solar activity.
    Today GCR's are abundant due to the weak Solar activity.
     
  3. Rybold

    Rybold globally warmed member

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    Interesting.

    Here's a video on the flow of currents on the sun's surface (like the oceans of earth flow), but your article (the OP, original post) has a much better description of the future decline in activity.
    Sunspots Suggest a Drop in Solar Activity

    science.nasa.gov also has more info.

    .
     
  4. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    See also Sky & Telescope: Is the Sunspot Cycle About to Stop? Most of the authors are not expressing any opinion on terrestrial climate effects.

    I don't see anything at Science News yet.
     
  5. chogan2

    chogan2 Senior Member

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    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
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  6. mmcdonal

    mmcdonal Active Member

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    I think a better title for the article would be "Sunspot cycle theories appear broken: Several centuries of data are inconclusive for evolving 5 billion year old star."

    Not that I am weighing in on any of the environmental issues, just on the philosophy of science issue.
     
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  7. cyclopathic

    cyclopathic Senior Member

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    mojo, the Medieval Climate Optimum and LIA are part of the Bond 1,500 year cycle.. it is too early for new ice age, at very least we should have another 700 years.

    If we approaching it now that would mean that cycle is broken, as in few decades we managed to generate enough GHG to what mother nature takes centuries.

    The question becomes if the regulatory system has enough capacity to purge excesses or it is broken for good.
     
  8. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    How does this headline grab you then?
    Rare Drop in Sunspot Activity Could Cause Little Ice Age

    The Wikipedia article on "Little Ice Age" seems helpful and it appears quite a bit of solar variation and scientific unceratinty as you have suggested. >>Some scientists even believe variations in climate in past centuries have been caused by human population shifts (eg; plague as population reducer was followed by global temp drop).
     
  9. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    So that last (current) peak is really late getting formed, it would appear almost 13-years from 1996 minimum to the 2009 minimum.
     
  10. WE0H

    WE0H Senior Member

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    Interesting the Prius people are following the solar activity ;) The Ham Radio guys have been noticing the less than stellar sun activity on this current cycle. Just when we think the bands are getting better, we go into another decline in sun spots :(

    Mike
    WE0H
     
  11. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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  12. qbee42

    qbee42 My other car is a boat

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  13. nerfer

    nerfer A young senior member

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    Humans have been changing the makeup of the atmosphere for longer than we think. Widespread cutting of trees, burning and plowing fields all have added CO2 to the atmosphere that would otherwise stay in roots, dirt and tree trunks, in fact those activities still account for probably 1/3rd of the human addition to greenhouse gases. (Don't buy Chinese wood products - they probably come from unprotected rain forests).

    That said, losing 20-30% of the human population in Europe (the primary location of the plague) at a time when agriculture worldwide was still pretty primitive doesn't seem like it would have a big enough effect to cause the Little Ice Age. And I've heard it argued that the LIA is what pushed the rats to live in the houses in greater numbers, contributing to the plague, but that's probably just hear-say (or heresy?), but either way, I'm not sure of the exact timing there.
     
  14. nerfer

    nerfer A young senior member

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    Decline? Wouldn't that be an increase in sun spots causes interference?
     
  15. WE0H

    WE0H Senior Member

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    If there are more sun spots, that makes the atmosphere layers reflect the VHF and lower frequency radio waves better. Less sunspots make our signals go into outer space :p The solar flare last weekend closed down many HF bands but enhanced the lower VHF bands. The first place I go before going on the air is to check the online solar condition sites to see if the bands are even open other than just across town :p

    Mike
     
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  16. nerfer

    nerfer A young senior member

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    mojo's being funny again. He makes me laugh almost as much as qbee, but in a different way.
     
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  17. qbee42

    qbee42 My other car is a boat

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    Sure, you think it's funny that I'm going to look at the sun after dark. Well let me tell you, I intend to use night vision goggles.

    Tom
     
  18. wjtracy

    wjtracy Senior Member

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    OK let me know, you may need to update pic via SpaceWeather.com. Just got my scope on it, and there are indeed two big sunspot groups today. So fairly active, Global Warming seems to be in progress today.

    >>Tonite is total lunar eclipse except not here in North America.
    SpaceWeather.com is probably one site you can check it out.
     
  19. cyclopathic

    cyclopathic Senior Member

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    I challenge that it had been at least 10F cooler then seasonal here in last 4 days, I think it is beginning of the Ice Age.

    I am off to REI to pick up a pair of skis just in case
     
  20. fuzzy1

    fuzzy1 Senior Member

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    It is up now: Next solar cycle could be a no-show. I don't know if this article is available to non-subscribers.

    While the reporter teases with the possibility of cooling in the first sentence, he really gives nothing to address this issue. I suspect that the climate commentary came from other directions, not from the scientists who wrote the three solar cycle papers.
     
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