EMP - Should the Western World be worried?

Here is a map of affected areas dependent up detonation altitude



I would worry.....

 

Ever since the US has suffered power outages (e.g. big one in new york) I realized how fragile the grid is. If an attack was made to a limited number of key infrastructure points a lot of us could be out of power for a long time. It seems to me that if a typical city lost power for, say, two weeks, things would be extremely unpleasant quite quickly. No gas, no heat (bad if in the winter), grocery stores empty, people standing in FEMA lines for food. I find this extremely easy to foresee and doesn't require an alarmist perspective.

EMP affecting the entire US isn't likely without a nuclear war or a natural event (e.g. some sun catastrophe), I don't believe.

There are books and papers on EMP events.

For my part I have substantially more food in my house (stuff I regularly eat, so really it cost me nothing) than most people have, enough to keep us going for a decent period of time, and some manner in which to cook it as well.

I believe there are unlikely events that make great movie fodder but little else (like a zombie uprising) and some very plausible events (like extended power outages that severely upset modern life). Then we have things in the middle, which I'd put EMP into.

My opinion is based entirely upon watching movies and reading books and the internet, though. So take it for what it's worth

 

Read this.....

[ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_pulse]Electromagnetic pulse - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

 

If somebody drops a nuke on us, EMP would be the least of our problems.

 

Should we be any more worried about it than we have been for the last thirty years? This is hardly a new threat.

And speaking of Faraday cages....I learned recently that microwave ovens funtion nicely to shield electronics from lightning strikes. Apparently sailors often keep their navigational instruments in the microwave. Just don't turn it on!

 

I'm more worried about a plain old banking/debt crisis or end-of-oil scenario causing a collapse in the economy. Actually, I'm far more worried about getting run over by a bus, or hit by a drunk driver. It's funny (and I've commented on it often) that people will come up with some really astronomically unlikely things to worry about, and then get behind the wheel of their car while talking on the cell phone or eating a sandwich.

If terrorists wanted to take out our electrical grid, there are MUCH easier ways to do it than by launching a missile with a nuke on it!

 

Actually... with rogue nations now having the bomb (and with those nations exporting the bomb technology to others with cash), and with nations like Iran saying they WANT to have warships off our coast, the likelyhood of having an EMP device used on us is a greater threat than it has ever been.

 

A microwave oven generates, um, microwaves, and the design of the oven works like what you typically think of as a Faraday cage, except in reverse (the source is inside the cage, not outside.) So it makes perfect sense that if the oven shields you from microwave radiation when you poke your nose up to the glass to see how the pop corn is doing, it would work equally well in reverse. Very clever those sailors.

 

EMP won't work against a submarine, and all military control electronics are already shielded, so there is a deterrent (remember that word from the 70's?)

Anyway, there are lots nicer things to think about.

 

om nom nom...

But in all seriousness an EMP pulse is without a doubt the way to royally screw the united states or any technologically advanced country. Nothing would function.... Electronics, Heaters, air conditioners, the INTERWEBZ!!! and even cars.. though some "older" ones might stil run.

As a culture we become way to dependent on technology and until something changes... which i doubt it will... we will continue along that path.

A good read if you have time "Technolopy"

http://www.amazon.com/Technopoly-Surrender-Technology-Neil-Postman/dp/0679745408

 

I wouldn't worry about it Grumpy.

There are a lot of things that you need to get right for an effective HEMP device to work properly, and I've suspect that the damage estimates are somewhat overblown.
Joe blow terrorist would first need a weapon. You either need a fairly large one, or one specifically designed to kick out a lot of gammas (or both). Not something that you can order on eBay.
Also there's the problem of delivery.
It's one thing to use box cutters and appropriate a Boeing 767 to deliver 15,000 gallons of jet fuel onto a target, unless you're one of those crop circle fanciers who think the GB2 did it, that is.
Getting a nuclear weapon onto an aircraft, which presumably also have to get, and putting the two of them over the United States to do evil things is quite another thing all together. It would bel a pretty big op.

I live in Hurricane country. I'm only on 5 acres, but I have a well, and strategic supplies of food, water, fuel, and other sundries.
If it happens, and it's as bad as they say, it happens.

It's like the asteroid-versus-Earth thing.
Why worry about something over which you have no control???

 

You have highlighted the central points.

EMP is not the problem, it's fragile designs vs. robust designs. EMP, Solar flares, big thunderstorms, big ice storms, etc. are all worries for a poor design. Likewise, a robust design that has redundance, reliability, quick emergency response, and well trained staff is the best defense against EMP....and solar flares, ice storms, etc.

Likewise, the best thing a homeowner can do is be prepared to handle dropouts in the grid. Whether it be a blizzard, hurricane, earthquake or EMP event, being able to handle a loss of electricity and transportation for a week....and not panic.... is the best defense.

 

Actually, we might be able to do something about Apophis (the asteroid which might hit us in 2036).

 

As of October 7, 2009, the probability of an April 13, 2036 impact by Apophis is considered to be 1 in 250,000.

 

Apophis was identified as a potential threat to the Earth soon after its discovery.
It was found that Apophis would make a close approach to the Earth in April 2029.
In December 2004, NASA estimated the chances of a collision of being 1 in 233 - the highest probability of any asteroid impact that had ever been calculated. Over the next few days, NASA continued to raise the impact probability. On December 27, the probability of impact was calculated as 1 in 37, which is more likely than drawing three of a kind in a hand of poker!

Subsequent observations in December 2004 and January 2005 showed that Apophis will definitely not collide with the Earth in 2029.
On December 28, 2012, Apophis enters our neck of the woods.
Its closest approach will be .097 A.U. on January 9, 2013. It will leave our neck of the woods on January 18, 2013. On March 16, 2029, Apophis will again enter our neck of the woods, beginning its most important encounter with Earth to date.
On April 13, 2029, Apophis will be on our porch, passing by the Earth's surface at a distance of less than 20,000 miles.
This pass will be close enough to alter the asteroid's orbit.
The exact course of the new orbit will depend on exactly how close Apophis passes by us.
As of April 16, 2008, astronomers had calculated there to be a 1 in 45,000 chance Apophis' new orbit will set it on a collision course with Earth, with an impact date of April 13, 2036.

Just something else to look forward too!

 

When I lived in rural North Dakota I had to endure power outages from time to time. I'd say once every 2 or 3 years, on average, for several days at a time. Typically an ice storm followed by a blizzard. The ice takes down the power lines and the blizzard keeps the repair crews from getting out.

I had an LP gas parlor heater with a counter-flow blower and a non-electric thermostat. I have no idea how the thermostat worked, except that instead of degrees, it just had 1 to 10, and the colder it was outside, the lower I had to set it to maintain the same indoor temperature. Without electricity the blower didn't work, and the heater was strictly up-flow, which left the floors cold, but I still had heat. I had no running water for washing, which was the pits. I pooped in plastic bags and tossed them outside. But I had drinking water and my stove was gas. So I stayed warm and well-fed. I had gallons and gallons of drinking water.

I'm more vulnerable now. Without electricity I'd have no heat and no a/c in summer. I suppose the municipal water would work for a while. I have a camp stove. But I'd probably just eat cold food. If it were an EMP there'd be so much disruption I expect it would be chaos, and my own lack of electricity would probably be the least of my worries. But there are more likely disasters than an EMP. Yellowstone could blow, for example, or a jet plane could crash into my house.

 

we're all gonna die sooner or later, in case you hadn't noticed.