September Volt Sales:

In the the last two months, Volt sales have increased 100% a month, while LEAF sales have peaked are losing momentum! WOOHOO !!!!

 

Sept. seems to be a bad month for car buying all around. Fiesta only sold just over 3k (2011 to 2012 tooling hurt supply) and Focus only sold 10k which is extremely low for them.

 

Kia sales are up 18%. 35k units moved.

Toyota and Honda car sales fall in September as most rivals gain - latimes.com

 

If you were looking for averages, it seems that the LEAF will settle around 1000 car/month. June was an anomaly because of the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami and the huge backlog of orders.

The Volt's dip in Jul/Aug appears to be because of the factory shutdown. Otherwise average sales are appx 500 / mo. One might suggest that the bump in Sept sales is just catching up on the backlog because of the shutdown that might continue for another month.

I've also heard that dealers are starting to go below MSRP on the Volt, so supply should be less of an issue now. My prediction is that we'll see sales settle around 750/mo or so.

Of course - neither Nissan or Chevy is selling either car in all 50 states yet (unless you're really motivated and buy out of state). So until they do we're still only looking at a partial picture.

I like the Volt and hope it does well, but it needs 3 things before I would consider it:

1. Price reduction - starting price needs to be around $35k so it will be about $30k or less after credits/rebates.
2. More room - 5 seats and more room in the back seats - I often carry people.
3. Better fuel economy in CS mode - ~35-40 mpg doesn't cut it in CS mode. 45 mpg is a must (close to Prius fuel economy).

In the end, a plug-in Prius v would be close to perfect - if it had 3rd row seating it would be awesome. Tesla Model S with the 300 mi pack would be awesome, too - but I can't afford $90k for a car!

 

Added Prius to the mix.

 

I called a dealer in Chicago to hear whether the $37k price listed on cars.com was being honored. The guy hemmed and hawed a bit, but did admit that they are willing to sell below sticker.

So here we are, 4000 or so sales one year after introduction, and demand is at least in some areas satiated. This is a lot worse than even I guessed, and that is saying something LOL

 

The hurricane should also have affected East Coast sales in September. (It certainly damaged crops.) You aren't selling cars if you don't have electricity so 1 or 2 sales days were probably knocked out of the month. Flooding may also have affected inventory.

 

Initially Nissan was to sell about 2K Leafs a month in the US (4K global). Not sure whether the Tsunami has permanently changed those plans (what with Electricity problems etc).

Ofcourse Leaf is still highly supply constrained - with Canada just getting 40, for example. Even in the new Eastern areas, dealers got allocated just 3 or 4 Leafs.

Right now Nissan is going thr' model year change for Leaf - we will know whether that has an impact sometime in December/Jan.

We are near that mark already with Volt. They had their MY change and claim 150 a day production. We can't have 750 a month sales & 150 a day production. Something has to give (even with all the Ampera exports). Either we should see a huge inventory buildup or the production cut. Either way, I think October is crucial. We will know what is happening ...

 

I guess that means there will be 18% more people upset at not getting the 40mpg the commercials claim. :cheer2:

 

Really? September 2011 - What Double-Dip Recession Edition doesn't seem to agree w/your comments.

Per http://media.ford.com/images/10031/Sept11sales.pdf linked to from Ford Motor Company, Fiesta sales were up 30.1% compared to Sept 2010. Focus was down 24.1% though. Notice that for Sept 2011, Ford car sales were down 8.7% while "utilities" were up 22.6% and trucks were up 14.8%.

Ford land barges like Expedition and Navigator weren't up as much as GM land yachts that I pointed to at http://priuschat.com/forums/other-cars/98585-us-auto-sales-up-in-september-2011-big-trucks.html.

 

Saw my first American Fiesta sedan the other day with Arizona plates - weird looking but OK. They must be getting popular as there was another American Fiesta hatch over here recently too. My unscientific approach is that if the US military staff are downsizing from their Durango's then it must apply to America as a whole. It can only be a good thing.

 

GM's Reuss: 2012 will reveal true demand for the Chevy Volt!

GM's Reuss: 2012 will reveal true demand for the Chevy Volt

 

Leaf is supply constrained, I do not know why Nissan is not making as many cars as originally planned, but they did announce months ago that they would not deliver the rose projections.

There are 2600 dealers that gm needs to get delivered. I would think that gm would not cut production until each dealer had 5 cars, or more than 5 months production at current rates with 0 sales. I would not expect production to be cut anytime soon, it should increase in November with higher battery production capacity. Sales should increase, but if they stay bellow current production, then there would be a production cut around June.

 

Chevrolet to Sell Purely Electric Chevy Spark Hatchback in U.S.

Chevrolet to Sell Purely Electric Spark Hatchback in U.S. - NYTimes.com

 

So after all the "range anxiety" promotion, undermining any future effort to sell an electric-only vehicle, they are now going to. Competition from with was a major problem for GM prior to the bankruptcy... and now it is again. :frusty:
.

 

I am no expert but I seriously doubt that a converted gas car (Aveo or Sonic) will sell as an EV for approximately 3 times. The only chance for this EV is to design a brand new car. I actually did like the look of EV1.

I don't think GM will try again to sell the Volt/Cruze and now EV/Aveo or Sonic. I Imagine this $40,000 EV will sell less than the Volt, in part because its gasoline brother is 1/3 the price.

 

There is no doubt that GM is dialing back Volt sales expectations. What was once 'the new GM' and the 'future of GM' is now a (paraphrased) 'great technology showcase to drive Cruze and SUV sales.'

Whatever. I just want the company to pay back the loans and clean up its toxic dumps, then it can die a deserved if late death.