Hybrid cars losing market share

maybe it is just the well is drying out? after all "hybrid" buyers are well "hybrid" buyers, "car" buyers are car buyers and "truck" buyers are truck buyers.. Everyone who wanted a hybrid got one, and it isn't time to replace it yet.

 

Here is a list of reasons mentioined so far (pls add any I missed):

Possible Reasons for Hybrid Market Share Loss
1. Toyota break pedal issue
2. Japan Earthquake
3. Increased availablility of high-MPG conventional cars (eg; Cruze, etc)
4. Many hybrid fans already own a Hybrid - saturated market
5. Economic Slowdown - whereas hybrids add to cost of car
6. did I miss any?

 

Yup.

Lower gas prices.

I saw $3.22 here this morning. That's far enough from the $4 we had been paying for people to consider efficiency less of a priority now. That's terribly naive and short-sighted, but nonetheless a reality of our market.
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Sure, but then you are looking at a cumulative effect. Hybrids and trucks seem to last longer than cars, so if hybrids sell long term at 2% we may see 3% of them on the roads. I live in a hybrid friendly place so numbers here, LA LA land, the bay area will be much higher, and those places without hybrids will get more. I hope that with the new cafe standards hybrids, phevs, bevs, and other fuel efficient cars will increase. Unfortunately the short term trend is down. This may just reflect that the prius has peaked and premium is too high on other cars. Toyota and Hyundai have reduced the premium on sonata and camry, maybe others will follow suit.

I know here in eco friendly land, plug ins would definitely make a difference. I am less sure in the rest of the country.

There were laws that financial institutions couldn't speculate, and that has increased oil price volatility. Long term contracts, that is contracts for more than a year were always overshadowed by spot prices and shortages. The situation in Libya caused much of the price volatility, along with speculation on high prices.

 

There are always spot speculators ready to jump in at the slightest chance of supply chain disruptions, but I think the two main effects on oil prices are anticipated short term western economy health and dollar strength. A few months ago there was some optimism that the world recession might be coming to an end, but that optimism has evaporated.

The reason the world economy drives speculation is obvious -- increased demand for oil.
The connection with the dollar is much more complicated, and I am sure I understand only the surface. The main effect I have seen is that a weakening (this is always future speculation) dollar encourages people to buy something else, and at least in the last great run-up in oil prices money went to commodities including oil.

This is wrt to oil -- refinery disruptions (think hurricanes e.g.) are a separate game.

 

How about people waiting for the EVs coming in 2012/2013?

Also waiting for the PruisPI and PriusC for better mpg efficiency.

 

Old ways and ideas die hard. Throughout history visionaries who dreamed and thought outside the box were and still are persecuted and ridiculed. The cost factor (initial) and unknown operation of these vehicles is scarry to many. How many dealerships misdiagnose problemswith these vehicles and sales people who don't accept these vehicles as an equal to the models offered for sale. How many corporate types are not all in with these vehicles and only make them because they are just following a fad started by Toyota and others. Last we have the media all types and how they shape the publics opinion of these vehicles which for many people today shapes their opinion on everything. Yes the media has enormous power with all the electronic devices and sociol networks the many generations live on.

 

Like us here on this forum but we share ideas and truth about these vehicles. Many people i have encountered ask if i waste time on that garbage Prius chat site. My response is yes i spend time there being educated and rejuvinated by the wonderful sharing of the human spirit. That usually brings silence and a walk away. To each their own but i prefer hybrid cars and people no matter what others think or the sales numbers.

 

Possible Reasons for Hybrid Market Share Loss (Ver 2)
1. Toyota break pedal issue
2. Japan Earthquake
3. Increased availablility of high-MPG conventional cars (eg; Cruze, etc)
4. Many hybrid fans already own a Hybrid - saturated market
5. Economic Slowdown - whereas hybrids add to cost of car
6. Cost of gasoline going down right now
7. Waiting for alternate HEV/PEV/EV emerging choices (new cars)
8. Concern/mis-info (among non-Hybrid owners) about EV battery failure and costs
9. anything else?

 

Yep.

9. Concerns/fears over Toyota sudden unintended acceleration. For some (esp. amongst non-technical people and non-car enthusiasts), it just puts fear/doubt in their mind about the safety of Toyotas, despite nothing being found by NHTSA and NASA.
10. Concern (as always) about "payback period". Many non-hybrid owners don't seem to get the bigger picture and are so focused on "payback period". What's the payback period on a monstrosity battering ram of death SUV?
11. Related to 8, some thinking that non-PHV hybrids NEED to be plugged in and thus, ruling them out because they have no place to do so.
12. (Ongoing) The usual misinformation about hybrids being environmentally unfriendly due to the debunked CNW junk science that refuses to die.

As for 3, it's partly an illusion due to manufacturers picking the highest number only to prominently display/announce, sometimes w/more expensive trims. Some called efficient ICE vehicles get "40-ish mpg" on the EPA highway tests or but only on certain trims and transmissions while still getting only 30-ish mpg combined.

 

OK we have a good list, my Item #1 is in error should say Toyota "gas" pedal issue so may be the same as your Item 9 but we have it covered.

 

Hybrids are too expensive compared to the price of gas, which is around $3.50 right now.

Gas has to be up around $4.00 for people to get interested in hybrids on their own.

Things will change when the new mpg standards activate in 2015?

 

Well, there was FAQs on the 2010 Prius Recall | PriusChat during which broke around the same time as the SUA media circus. They are two separate items.

Priuses only had the floor mat changes and accelerator pedal trimming, not the replacement of the accelerator pedal assembly or insertion of shims since they didn't use CTS pedals that went onto US (North American?) made Toyotas.

 

The thread heading is generic ... "hybrids" ... all hybrids. The responses seem to concentrate on Toyota and Prius.

I know this will not be well received.
On PC ... most of us are interested in the environment ... and all the ramifications. In truth, I suspect the average motorist (undefined what "average" is) could care less about the environment. When the price of gas goes over $4/gal ... cash flow shortages dictates they find a less expensive ride. When the price drops, they return to their first love: trucks, SUV; muscle cars; motor homes; boats and single driver commutes.

Now I hate the conclusion: The only way to get the public out of their "first love" vehicles ... is to raise the cost of ownership/operation.

 

Seeing as how Toyota (and Lexus) sold more than half of the hybrids CYTD per September 2011 Dashboard: Consumers Favor Trucks Over Hybrids | Hybrid Cars w/Prius being the dominant vehicle, I think that makes sense.

As for your 2nd statement, I'm receiving it very well. You've hit the nail on the head. The average motorist either doesn't care, cares but won't change their behavior or is uninformed about what caring means. One of the monstrosity battering ram of death proponents on Tivocommunity (who also didn't understand consequences) kept saying that all vehicles, including SUVs are now are "low emission". Well, "low emission" is a pretty fuzzy description and when used in the context of how vehicles are typically rated as/required to be "low emission", it has nothing to do their greenhouse gas output.

I doubt he had any clue about the above and I suspect the average motorist doesn't understand that the only way to reduce CO2 emissions in gasoline and diesel vehicles is to burn less of it. Emission control systems can't reduce that. They reduce the amount other pollutants.

It's also pretty clear that many (most?) of the battering ram of death class SUV drivers don't care about the safety of other drivers nor our dependence on foreign oil, how much oil the US possesses, etc.

 

Thanks for all the replies all. I'm preparing a Toastmasters speech to convince people to buy advanced vehicles following market share share slipping from 3 to about 1.75% in September...

I will pass around photos of the fuel display gauge showing 58 MPG the last time I rented a 2010 Prius. I'll top it off with stating the actual MPG's at the pump was 59 MPGs. I'll address the fears about batteries, silent hybrids (not 2012 models!), and issues with rare earths, etc...

Bottm line, gassing up a Prius is like gassing up a 450 lb motorcycle, a very fuel efficient one. I had several 600 cc bikes that could not average 45 MPG.

 

That's right. Burn 1 gallon of gas, blows 20 lbs of CO2 out the back .... and sucks in 21 lbs of oxygen from the front.
Can't see it so must be harmless, right?

 

Here on PriusChat we've been fighting misperceptions since the Prius was introduced (well, John1701a was probably doing that even beforehand). I haven't been too concerned about it honestly, because even though a lot of people (including the media) were grossly misinformed and spreading untruths, the Prius was still on a waiting list for several years (unprecedented for a mass-produced vehicle). Even after that it was usually in the top ten for fewest days spent on the lot (correlates to low inventory). So correcting the information still wouldn't have meant that more Prii were sold, which is really what we want.

Even now, the Prius is in the list of fast sellers at 15 days on the lot: Movers and Losers: June 2011 - KickingTires So basically they're still selling the Prius as fast as they can make them.
(Notice that the Leaf is tied for first, 5 days is considered sold-out). Average time on the lot is considered about 60 days.

BTW, I've only met one other person in real life who knew specifically about PriusChat, and he owned a Prius. Not that I proselytize much to random people, but PC seems to be known mostly by dedicated Prius owners.

Well - two words: Prius v.

I think a cross-over/minvan sized vehicle that gets 40 mpg all day long will be a big hit in the family market. We might be tapping out the sedan/hatchback market, but that's just one segment. Plus appearance doesn't really matter in the family vehicle, as proven by station wagons and minivans. This may be a consideration for those car guys I know who don't want a Prius for their personal vehicle because of the shape.