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In two weeks...

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by amm0bob, Oct 11, 2011.

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  1. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    I'm feeling it... well, that and the smallest full moon in a while makes me skittish...



    In about two weeks, give or take a day or two, there will be a large earthquake.




    Again... strictly according to the mind of Bob... which, by many accounts is small and unfocused in reality when it comes to what I predict.

    With any luck, if it does happen, it will be far enough away that I can get my boat out of the water before another tsunami...

    Carry on... :D
     
    #1 amm0bob, Oct 11, 2011
  2. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    I don't know what boat facilities are like near you, but if there were a tsunami headed here, I wouldn't expect to able to get a boat out of the water before it arrived. Just not enough lead time. Of course, around here, 80% of the boats are kept on land that wouldn't be safe from a tsunami anyway. The only question would be whether it got trashed in the water, or on land.
     
    #2 Corwyn, Oct 11, 2011
  3. sipnfuel

    sipnfuel New Member

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    Well a broken clock is right twice a day :)
     
    #3 sipnfuel, Oct 11, 2011
  4. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

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    My psychic senses are tingling too. I've got a strong feeling that within two weeks the sun will rise, the wind will blow, and rain will fall. There're probably be a tide or two also along the coastal regions.

    Earthquakes at 6 or better on the Richter Scale are considered "large", and the USGS marks them red in its list, below. The list is for the last 7 days, and there were two quakes better than 6, and dozens better than 4. They're as ordinary as sunrise.

    So Amm0 is right, there will be a "large" quake in the next 14 days - probably several. Might even be one better than 7 that makes the papers. The odds favor it, even without psychic ability.

    Latest Earthquakes in the World - Past 7 days
     
    #4 airportkid, Oct 11, 2011
  5. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    I'm not counting a 6 as significant Bra...

    As for psychic... naaaaa... lunatic maybe... :D
     
    #5 amm0bob, Oct 11, 2011
  6. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    You're from Maine... and likely unaware of tsunamis impacts out here from a quake in the ring of fire that generates big waves.

    I DID get my boat taken out of the water BEFORE the little tsunami hit the harbor (I think you can find my old posts still here proving it before the water got here), and the same again when the big one hit in March... I knew about the time because I watched the website that tracks it and arrival times... you can do the same Bra, it ain't magic...

    Now as for my predictions... personally, I hope I'm mistaken... but again, I think I will tell John to give me a hand again in about 10 days and just sit out a week... John believes me, and he knows I pull a lot of stuff out of my hat that does have an impact on what happens around my stuff...

    Just saying... the moon... the moon is one factor... and right now, I'm thinking the smallest full oon, means one of the biggest new moons is coming in two weeks... and that may be enough to shake up some place along the ring of fire, and along the Pacific coast.

    :yo:
     
    #6 amm0bob, Oct 11, 2011
  7. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

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    Oh yeah, NOW you say that. Well put up a number, bra, otherwise you haven't said anything. 7? 8? 10? Name it.
     
    #7 airportkid, Oct 11, 2011
  8. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    :pound:

    Yeah... 220 - 225... whatever it takes...


    And in total speculation:


    I'd say more than 7.5... not quite to 8 unless it's on the Alaskan coast or Chile...

    If it hits off of the west coast of Cali/Oregon/Washington... I'd say less than 7.5 but more than 7.1...

    If it hits in Turkey... I'd say less than 7.5 but more than 7.1

    If it hits in the lower western Pacific ring... less than 7.5 but more than 7.1...

    Almost as much fun as playing roulette... :D


    If it's the new madrid... well... honestly... I don't think that one will break until we have a couple of 5.0+ within a two week period... but if it did break there (which is outside of the areas I think will be in the included to get a hit) it will also be a huge impact because they are so unprepared even for level 5 events.


    I think the spread is wide enough for a hit... is that what you were saying Bra.
     
    #8 amm0bob, Oct 11, 2011
  9. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    For a prediction to be meaningful, you need to be more specific than "large" and you need to be more specific than "somewhere in the world." For example: a quake between 7.5 and 8 centered within 25 miles of Ankara within two days of October 17.

    "A big quake somewhere in the world in the next 2 weeks" is just silliness. There's nothing wrong with silliness. It's just not a "prediction."

    I predict that within the next two weeks I will see a girl I'd marry if she'd have me, but she wouldn't, even if I had the nerve to speak to her, which I won't.
     
    #9 daniel, Oct 11, 2011
  10. Stev0

    Stev0 Honorary Hong Kong Cavalier

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    I predict within the next two weeks somebody will start a thread on the board asking what sort of tires they should get.
     
    #10 Stev0, Oct 11, 2011
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  11. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    Dan Dan Dan... reread what I said and stop reading into what I said and you'll see I was specific Bra... in a shotgun sort of way... and the time isn't "somewhere in the world in the next two weeks" either...

    The full moon is tonight... two weeks from tonight, give or take a day, there darn well might be a big one... especially in the places I indicated... and that I believe is due to lunar tidal forces that will be the trigger when the moon is at a close position of it's orbit in alignment with the sun on the same side of the Earth (new moon).

    As for predicting when a girl will marry you... well... you gots ta know Bra, I have been wrong 66% of the time just about myself... so don't think any of my predictions for the love-lorn will come to any fruition, especially when it comes to matters of the heart... :D
     
    #11 amm0bob, Oct 11, 2011
  12. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    The notion that tidal forces affect earthquakes sounds reasonable enough. However, all scientific attempts to establish a connection have failed utterly and completely. Conclusion: The moon is useless for predicting earthquakes. Earthquakes are common enough, however, that if you cast your net wide enough, you'll catch one.
     
    #12 daniel, Oct 11, 2011
  13. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

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    Tidal action affects the earth's crust 24/7, trillions of tons of water imparting massive waves of energy into not so solid rock hour after hour after hour; that the steady drumbeat of tides could shake loose an earthquake is quite possible. But the energy differential between a syzygy tide, perigree tide, apogee tide, perhelion tide, aphelion tide and "normal" tides is insufficient to argue that earthuakes are more likely during those kinds of tides - it'd be like arguing that riding a bicycle along a hundred miles of roadway with two broken beer bottles per mile will get a flat tire right at the spot in one of the miles that an extra shard of glass happened to be. It may very well get a flat tire somewhere in the hundred miles, perhaps several flats, but there's no predicting that because one of the miles has an extra shard of glass that that's where it'll sustain a flat tire, that that shard of glass caused the puncture.
     
    #13 airportkid, Oct 11, 2011
  14. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    [​IMG]


    :fish2:
     
    #14 amm0bob, Oct 11, 2011
  15. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    I think we all missed the point: Bob was just being silly.
     
    #15 daniel, Oct 12, 2011
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  16. airportkid

    airportkid Will Fly For Food

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    All the more reason to be thankful these posts don't count :p
     
    #16 airportkid, Oct 12, 2011
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  17. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    But the Thanks do Bra... and I want you to get credit for saying something. :D
     
    #17 amm0bob, Oct 12, 2011
  18. sipnfuel

    sipnfuel New Member

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    There's a sort of urban legend that says unusually warm weather can precede a large earthquake, as if one were correlated with the other.

    Anecdotally, it does seem a few larger earthquakes in the past here coincided with a warm spell.
     
    #18 sipnfuel, Oct 12, 2011
  19. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    And near water or rain storm...
     
    #19 amm0bob, Oct 12, 2011
  20. amm0bob

    amm0bob Permanently Junior...

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    And I predict it will be in Gen II next...


    :D
     
    #20 amm0bob, Oct 12, 2011
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