Volt Sales Figures

Basically, they are comparing to 26.5 MPG compact.

2010 average is 27.3 MPG.

 

Not any longer, that figure has been dropped from the window sticker. Likely because it uses a series of assumptions that make it useless to an individual consumer.

 

Do you have handy links for the JC08 results for LEAF and the PiP?

Evidence please... and don't point me to that university research paper that wasn't really about Panasonic cells....

Panasonic's top cells today are 2.9 and 3.1Ah using their NNP (Lithium Nickel Oxide) cathode chemistry with a graphite anode and do not have particularly impressive cycle life. Depending upon source, their cycle life looks to be somewhere between 500 and 1,200 until 80% capacity but they seem to hang on well between there and 70%.

Tesla is widely assumed to be using the 3.1Ah in the Model S for which they claim only a 70% capacity after 7 years or 100,000 miles. At an 80% state of charge usage range that would only be around 800 "full" cycles of charge.
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Dude, chill. I said I estimated PiP electricity consumption to be 34kWh/100mi based on the Japanese JC08 rating. Yes, you are allow to disagree with me. How is the European test any better? The Prius is rated over 72 MPG.

What is your source for Volt beating (in the context of electricity consumption) the Prius on the European tests?

Volt's ability to accelerate without the gas engine coming on was mentioned as a desirable feature. I understand it and it is a valid one. Driving on the highway at high speed without the gas engine running is also a neat feature.

However, there are consequences. I am pointing out the obvious outcome. Duh, it'll use up the electricity much faster. What exactly are you disagreeing?

Feel free to provide better sources, if you think the information is not accrurate. That'll keep the discussion constructive. Judging by your chosen words, it appears you woke up on the wrong side of the bed or something.

The sources I provided are for the number of cycles, replying to Jeff N's comment about the battery cycles. Battery age was not part of the discussion.

 

This is drifting far afield from sales figures and have been rehashed ad nauseum in the volt success and how better than PiP threads.

 

Yup, Leaf and PiP.

PiP JC08 consumption is 8.74 km/kWh which converts to 114 Wh/km.

PiP has automotive grade Panasonic prismatic cells, not laptop grade cells. I believe Panasonic will be providing Tesla with automotive grade 18650 cells.

 

Well you said 32kwh/100mi which is better than the leaf, so why don't you chill and not doing this idle speculation. You can look up the urban combined cycle yourself, as I said I don't think this is a good estimate either. The only number we really have for how the prius phv will do on the epa is the 87mpge, and I would prefer to stick with that until toyota does the tests on production versions for the epa.

YOur assumption that the power capacity of the batteries are the same. The volt battery pack has a much higher batery power than the prius phv, which is why the engineers set the limits. I am also disagreeing that the volt will hit this limit more often than the prius hits its much lower limit, the prius will be at its electrical limit a much higher percentage of the time. I assume that toyota set this limit conservatively enough not to unduly reduce battery life, so its not much of an issue, but from a pure engineering point of view the prius battery is more at risk.

I'm just kind of sick of this type of speculation. The folks at PEV and LG as well as nissan, tesla and jci-saft are still trying to guess the numbers when it includes age. No one really knows, but its the manufacturers not the profs that have the best idea. The studies you pointed to are even more clueless since they aren't even testing the real batteries. I would only lease any of these cars because of the unknown, but I actually have more confidence in the lg chemistry and volt active cooling lasting longer. In a past job I helped build test chambers to test airbag sensors. The auto folks put out the specs to do aging and heat cold cycles, but you at least get an idea of way you need to test.

The main reason I came down on your bogus numbers is they have nothing to do with this thread, and are well, as I said obviously just pulled from someones nice person. I can get a couple of masters students at UT to make up numbers too, but I don't think I would ever put them out as being real world for the prius or volt.

 

The spec of PiP production version is now available. Previous discussion was from the prototype model. I agree, it is off-topic here.

The blended figure is irreverent to the electricity consumption discussion. I was using JC08 as reference because both cars ran on EV mode to compare. PiP suppose to run EPA city test in EV mode as well. We'll have to wait until the official figure come out.

We'll see. I would bet the reliability on Toyota engineering.

As far as sales go, PiP will outsell the Volt. A midsize family plugin car is more practical than a compact 4 seater commuter car.

 

the volt is a nice looking car (IMO)....but to drop $40k on what basically appears to essentially be an electric (hybrid) version of the Cobalt seems quite ridiculous

 

I think many have that opinion of toyota engineering versus gm, even when they were both made on the same chasis in the same plant (corolla/prism). It doesn't make it so, but reliability reputation will increase relative sales.

Whether the prius phv outsells the volt is entirely up to toyota and its pricing and availability. In 2012 toyota is doing a low availability strategy so I doubt the phv will impact volt sales. 2013 is a different matter, and I think toyota will drop its price and increase availability and outsell the volt. Price not size is more of a problem for the volt.

No, the volt is much nicer than the cobalt, but so is the cruze. Part of the halo justification of the volt is pulling people into dealerships then selling them cruizes which are selling much better than the cobalt ever did.

 

I do think regular Prius can't be compared to when plugging is as option.

 

Those are both academic papers. The first is a research paper on battery chemistry similar to what Panasonic will reportedly use for future batteries. They aren't testing actual Panasonic cells. The second paper seems to be a thesis about simulating optimal designs for battery packs but which includes some speculation about Panasonic and LG cell specifications.

Okay, here is something better grounded. The "PLG2" battery described on pages 75-77 of the US DOE 2010 Annual Progress Report on Energy Storage R&D is an actual LG Chem automotive hybrid EV cell that is likely the same as or closely related to the cell used in the Volt. It uses the same kind of mixed oxide cathode and amorphous carbon anode that the Volt reportedly uses. It claims to do 5000+ cycles and meet a calendar life target of 15 years. Samples of that cell were submitted for further testing at 3 US government national labs last year.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/program/2010_energy_storage.pdf

 

Thanks, interesting indeed. 5,000 cycles and 15 years were the target. The test data looks promising but not enough to conclude. Here is my take.

Neither PLG0 nor PLG1 meets the 15 years target. PLG0 is rated poor and PLG1 is significantly better. We have no idea how many years is "poor". It could be 2 years or 6 weeks (according to Figure III-8). All we know is, it is significantly better than the one that's significantly better than poor. Does it make PLG2 good, better or best? How do they translate to the number of years?

The number of cycle is more interesting. PLG0 can hit 5,000+ cycles before reaching the 80% of the original capacity (end of life). PLG1 can do ~800 cycles. Judging by the slope of PLG2, it may hit the end of life between 2,000 and 2,500 cycles.

 

I don't see how you read that into the report. They clearly claim under the "Accomplishments" section that their cell achieved the target capabilities of 5,000 cycles and 15 years and this will be validated by the national labs. This would obviously be the PLG2 cell since the PLG0 cell has poor calendar life and cannot meet the target and PLG1 doesn't meet the target either.

 

I would be SHOCKED if the PiP didn't outsell the Volt by a fair amount. Just as I would be shocked if any other $32k car didn't outsell a $45k car.

And, as you mentioned, the better percieved, and I believe actual, reliability of Toyota over GM will just add to that.

I really do hope GM can improve the fuel efficiency once the car is in CS mode. As I want to see ALL partially electric or all electric cars succeed.

 

I have no doubt LG Chem did some brutal testing with the charge cycle and would have exceeded 5,000 cycles. This was after all part of the selection criteria, and LG Chem as well as GM is responsible for warranty work. AFAIK from the whispers, and these are rumors, it is the number of years that are difficult to simulate. The idea that the plug in prius battery will last 3x longer than the LG Chem battery in the volt is just pure fud. This type of FUD is still used against the highly reliable prius battery, but we should not forget there were some initial design problems with the gen I prius battery that were corrected. It sometimes takes years to fully test for a decade of reliability. I would say FUD about batteries is not a big problem with volt sales, as those leasing them do not take the risk.

This is one of the big items on WSJ's analysis of missing the target number. There is a strange chicken and egg problem though, as production increases costs per unit drops, but GM may need to keep favorable lease terms available to sell the cars.

When I brought this up I was talking directly about the FUD about the battery. This cuts all ways. If you say volt batteries are unreliable then people will also percieve toyota batteries are unreliable, etc. I do not believe the GM batteries are less reliable but only time will tell. Toyota is not using texas as an initial launch state, while all others have decided this is one of the best states for plug-ins. It may be politics, or it may be doubt about the batteries in the texas heat.

I am sure they can but I doubt they will any time soon. They seem to be focusing on cutting costs, and do not seem to want to buy someone elses engine. These make raising fuel economy in cs mode not a high priority. The engine in the prius c, or new engines from ford, mazda, or nissan would give mpg a good improvement. Dropping one in might need a slight redesign of other components as the 1.4L barely fits.

 

My understanding from the "News from Japan" thread in the PHV sub-forum is that Toyota only intends to sell 15,000 units here next year. If that is true it may be a tight race in 2012, no doubt after that PiP will take the lead (barring some new development).

 

My take on it posted here.

 

How's the Leaf battery doing?