how many LKA sold until 2010

to settle this (betting) claim from 1996
we want to know how many Priuses with lane keep assist
were sold worldwide until Dec.2010

Estimates or regional sales numbers are also useful

basically only whether more than 10000 cars sold until 2010 that
qualify for the claim.
I think this is very likely, but we need some official number or
estimate.

--------------
no URLs allowed, so here is a copy of the claim:



FX Claim Cars

Claim Cars - Self-driving cars by 2010
Category: Science & Technology:Technologybid 11, ask 49, last 32
Owner:47, RJMason
Judge:47, RJMason
created:1996/05/04
due date:2010/12/31


The Claim
"Intelligent" self-driving road vehicles (defined below) enter widespread usage somewhere in the world by the end of 2010.
To qualify for the purposes of this claim, a self-driving vehicle must satisfy the following criteria:
It must be reliably able to follow a non-straight road at a speed of at least 50 mph (80.5 kph) without input from a human driver. Furthermore, this autonomous operation must be legal in the state/country in which the vehicle resides.
It must have a passenger/cargo capacity of at least 300 kg.
It must be practically and legally able to travel on roads commonly used by cars and trucks and to mingle with normal road traffic. However, it need not operate autonomously while doing this. Thus, a car which requires an active human driver under most conditions, but can operate autonomously on a special highway or in a special lane, may qualify for the purposes of the claim.
While driving autonomously, the vehicle may use any sort of landmarks or beacons to navigate. However, it may not be towed, pushed, pulled, or physically constrained to follow the desired path. Thus, a vehicle towed or carried by another vehicle or a conveyor belt, or running on rail track, etc., does not qualify.
Autonomous retrofits of previously manufactured non-autonomous vehicles may qualify for this claim.
This claim will be judged YES if the judge finds evidence that at least 10,000 such vehicles have been manufactured and are in operation before December 31, 2010. Otherwise it will be judged NO.
Judge's Statement
None.
The Market
Price Plot for life of Cars
Your UID:
Your password:

 

thanks.
It must fullfil these conditions only on some special roads, not all roads.
The human "input" could presumably be manipulated with a device
or turned off ? I assume it's only required for legal reasons and not
a technological necessity.
We had long discussion about this in 2010 at the fx-discuss mailing list...

Are there any other cars that may qualify and require no human input ?
Trucks or military vehicles maybe who allow the human input to be switched off
on special roads ?

Thinking back ... would you have betted for or against this in 1996 ?

 

it's not judged yet, the judge was lazy.
How many sold until 2010/12/31 ?
Any other cars with lane keep assist can be added
to make 10000, I only thought the Prius were the
best candidate.

VW,Nissan,Honda

 

so, the ATP("advanced technology package" is (only?) available on the Prius V ,
which is "Generation 3"-Prius and was sold since May 2009.

An estimated 3% of all Prius V had the ATP which includes the LKA and costs ~$5000 extra.
But the ATP was not available in all countries, however it was
available in Japan(?) and USA(!).

An estimated 530000 Prius were sold in 2010 and 400000 in 2009.
~480000 in 2010 and ~360000 in 2009 of these were sold in Japan or USA.

My rough estimate would be that ~40% of the 2009 sales and ~80%
of the 2010 sales were Prius V (??)

That makes ~15000 LKAs sold before 31.Dec.2010 in the Toyota Prius alone.

 

just trying to interpret 32colors in post #3

>... as not all Prius sold in 2009 were Gen III

not all --> most ?
and 2009 is mentioned but not 2010, so (almost) all in 2010


less than 10% in 2009 being


wikipedia:A total of 8399 Prius v's were sold during 2011
only since May 2011

Toyota debuted the new Prius (2010 US model year) at the January 2009 North American International Auto Show,[41] and sales began in Japan on May 18, 2009.[42]

so, what I need is this one:
(XW30)

and sales began in Japan on May 18, 2009.

On February 9, 2010, Toyota announced a voluntary global recall of third generation 2010 Prius models manufactured from the current model's introduction through late January.[23][24] Affected models, including 133,000 Prius vehicles in the U.S. and 52,000 in Europe

At the launch of the XW30, Toyota stated its goal of selling about 400,000 Prius units annually worldwide,[6] and 180,000 units in the U.S. by 2010.[33] As a result, in May 2009 production was increased to 50,000 units per month or 600,000 annual units to help meet higher than projected demand.[34]

and sales in the United States dropped 40 percent in February 2010 from October 2009 following concerns about Toyota vehicles' safety, Toyota had to reduce the monthly production by 10 percent to 45,000 units a month in March 2010

The US Prius offers several optional packages:
(only US or also in Japan ?)
...
Advanced Technology Package: includes the Navigation Package while adding a Pre-Collision System, Dynamic Radar Cruise Control, Lane Keep Assist and Intelligent Parking Assist.


10*50000+10*45000= 950000 Toyota XW30 produced until 31.Dec.2010


(sorry, I had to delete the links)

 

> an estimated 3% of the MY10 sold have LKA according to the Prius Team

what's MY10 ?

> For the 3% or so of the MY10 Prius buyers who have the IPA feature,
posted July 2010, so that must be the XW30

~200000 of them sold in USA until 31.Dec.2010, so ~6000 ATPs with LKA
in USA. I don't know if XW30s in Japan had ATP available