Volt Sales Figures

From your posts you seem to want GM to stop producing it. Is that not the case? Its a halo vehicle, a niche. You repeating that its not mainstream. Well duh, that was kind of obvous when gm green lighted it. I don't constantly complain that a lime is too sour. I might go to a lime fan site to see what people like about limes, but I certainly would not put out a lot of posts on how apples are better. Now if the lime in my drink doesn't taste like a lime that is quite a different thing. The volt is not going to grow bigger. Its not going to get a more efficient engine until the next generation. Its not going be made by Toyota. It is what it is - a phev. I would like all the plug ins to succeed.

Look if someone asks for Japanese Prius sales, the response should not be how far you feel the volt falls short on everything. What is your point for whining so incessantly?

I said in November somewhere in the 20s for this year. I also tried to correct the unrealistic expectations for last year. The expectations for 2011 should have been quite clear at 10k, not 30K, and gm fell a little short. The talk about 120K in 2013 if everything went right, was pure puffery to try to get people inside gm to support the car, especially the dealers. Anyone that seriously thought it was going to happen is more than a little off. GM gave a number of 45K US production (60K ww) for this year early in 2011, and I believe they were serious. I didn't believe them then, and by November it was clear gm didn't believe it anymore either. There current stance is they are building to demand, which really means they don't have much of a clue how this negative press will shake out and don't want to put out a number. It looks like there are at least 4k fleet sales and gm can choose to push cars out through dealer incentives. How big those dealer incentives will be I haven't a clue. I expect them to at least be big enough to push out mid twenty thousand cars though, otherwise they loose more dealer support.

 

I think the Ampera sales will be jumping of this year too, from what I've read it appears moving 15,000 of them this year is a good figure. I'd like to see 25k for US sales by the end of 2012.

If they sell 40,000 $40,000 cars thats $1.6 billion in sales right?

 

The Volt exceeded some people's hopes for pricing just like the PiP did. GM statements about pricing were always vague about whether they included the tax credit. Batteries are expensive. I see no evidence that Toyota is able to sell a 35 mile EPA electric range plugin sedan for less than the Volt.

The Volt did not fall short on range -- at least not any more than the LEAF and PiP did.

GM was saying 40 miles of range using a city test cycle much like Nissan said 100 miles and Toyota said 15. The official EPA range estimate of 35 is a lot closer to the 40 miles they used in early marketing than 100 is to EPA 73 or 15 is to EPA 11. Volt drivers routinely exceed 40 miles of range during mild climate conditions (same climate assumption used by Nissan and Toyota).

The mpg is lower than many hoped but most Volt gas miles are driven on the highway with the battery powering city off-highway needs. The highway mileage is the same EPA 40 mpg as the compact CT 200h and midsize hybrid Camry (39 mpg). The gas efficiency is good enough for gen 1.

The battery range is large enough that I can do all of my 25-30 daily route entirely on an overnight off-peak charge. I can also drive gas-free 38 miles to San Francisco and return home on battery with a single additional charge. Even though I drove an excessive amount of road trip miles during the past year and so have driven 38% of my miles in hybrid charge sustaining mode (at 42 mpg long-term average) I have still achieved 144g per mile CO2 overall based on my local average grid CO2.

The Volt is inherently more expensive than the PiP because of the increased battery capacity and range. It is inherently and by design at a different point in the product space than the PiP based on upfront vehicle cost and gasoline vs. battery capability. It fills a perfectly valid and useful product space.

I've seen you complain about Volt owners failing to properly view the PiP as using the battery as an mpg booster and instead trying to force it into an EV-centric design space where it doesn't belong. Yet, I see you trying to force the Volt into a PiP design space and declaring it a failure of sorts for being too expensive and having lower gas mileage (partially because it has more heavy battery cells).

It is a basic reality of economics that more expensive cars generally have lower sales volumes. It would not surprise me if this were true for the Volt vs. PiP. The PiP is designed to hit a sweet spot in price vs. present battery capability. The Volt is designed at the leading edge of an emerging product category that will ride the price and energy density curve over the next decade while providing a stronger EV-centric experience. The Volt's product category is a better fit for many driving patterns.

Your stated desire that GM create a "mainstream" PiP-like competitor will apparently be addressed by a blended hybrid Cruze plugin in the next couple of years.

 

GM idling production of the Volt due to sales.

News Headlines

As I've long said, the thing is just too expensive. It will never be successful unless its price comes down many thousands and will risk being cancelled as a project. And I know their margins must be relatively lean on it; it's not like they are gouging. It's just a technology too expensive.

 

Thanks for this wonderful example of historical revision.

GM's adverts for *years* was 40 miles on 8 kwh. They did not specify whether 8 kwh was battery or wall (sneaky sneaky), so lets give them the benefit of the slyness and choose battery so they look less pathetic and manipulative. Paarenthetically though I'll add that GM never saw fit to correct the years of cheerleading over the price per mile people were calculating assuming the 8 kwn was wall-to-wheels consumption. Instead of the car managing 200 wh/mile (8000 wh/40 miles), reality turned out to be (106000/35) = 303 wh/mile. So the best face we can put on GM hype was they overestimated by *only* 50%.

While Nissan was VERY clear which drive cycle was used in their adverts of 100 miles per charge, and early on published a table showing expected ranges under different conditions, GM carefully avoided mentioning which drive cycle they used for their results. Then GM went further, and said that the 40 mile range would be true in all but extreme conditions. Little did the faithful guess GM meant heater use. LOL.

Now GM and AG have a huge task in "explaining" away the hype to avoid public disgust. Good luck.

 

I don't remember Toyota running around publicly correcting overly optimistic Plugin Prius fanbois either.

The Volt/Ampera actually does achieve 200 Wh/mile from the battery on the officially published European NEDC test cycle and would likely do the same on the Japanese test cycle. I routinely get better than 230 Wh/mile during 9 months of the year on my 25-30 mile daily commute (45+ mile battery range) and better than 260 Wh/mile from the battery during December-February.

As I said, the distinction is between the marketing people using city cycle numbers during mild temperature conditions vs. the official conservative EPA battery range estimate. GM warrants the battery with its 65% SOC range for 10 years and 150,000 miles in California and 8 years, 100,000 miles in other parts of the U.S. (just like the PiP).

Hmm, just like Toyota and their 15 mile range......

Source?

In general, I think it was pretty clear that all of these 100 mile, 40 mile, and 15 mile battery range claims were made in the context of mild temperature conditions.

 

Toyota would not lay off in such situation.

Then comes the rub. See we tried, nobody want electric cars even with a backup generator.

 

You are entitle to your own opinion. You think John is a tough critic? Reality is even tougher.

priuschat.com/forums/prius-hybrid-e...-chevy-stops-volt-production-temporarily.html

 

No, you just keep assuming that. Niche simply means not mainstream. There's nothing that means stop. It just means it will remain a specialty vehicle, something like a plug-in Corvette or Camaro.

No, I pointed the need for something clean & efficient for the masses. GM said Volt would be the solution. Now it's not. Now we have to wait years still for some unknown that wasn't even mentioned until recently.

.

 

You also do not remember the over-optimism stemming from Toyota corporate ambiguity, because it did not happen.

Contrast and compare.

Your consumption numbers are fine as an anecdote, but most people do not live in balmy California.

 

and, ON to the NEXT vacuous forward looking hyped up vaporware.

 

I thought it was a fairer comparison (USA sales compared to USA sales). The USA market is quite a bit different as we have different attitudes toward vehicles styles, sizes, efficiencies, and pollution. Smaller cars are accepted more in many places in the world.

As well our gas prices are lower than many parts of the world. That "hurt" forces people to rethink vehicle in the four characteristics I mentioned.

For example:
> $8 in the UK

Video - Breaking News Videos from CNN.com

 

no, U.S. gas prices reflect huge subsidies to the oil industry, which in turn has propped up auto sales (rather than build a comprehensive mass transit system like "many places in the world") because artificially cheep gas means you can keep driving land barges with no consequences. Now that we're reaching the inevitable paradigm of oil depletion, even the subsidies can't hold back peak oil consequences. It's time to pay the piper. In stead though, we have 2 political parties where neither has a solution that won't result in them getting kicked out of office ... so both parties simply wait with hands in pockets. It's gona be a bumpy ride.

 

not at all. Europeans would love to drive big spacious cars, but simply cannot. they pay a huge premium for gas AND taxes AND Use fees.

try driving London in a gas guzzler. paying for gas is only half the battle.

smaller cars are not accepted. its simply the only viable choice for most

 

Hmmm.

Here is the Toyota U.S.A. press release of the speech made by General Manager Bob Carter to announce the PiP for the U.S. market. The speech was made at the GreenDriveExpo in Richmond, CA last September where the beta production 2012 Prius was first made available for test drives. I was there.

In the speech, he makes the claim of a 15 mile electric range with only a vague and ambiguous description of how those results were measured. The 15 mile claim was then widely used in media reports.

This event took place for the U.S. media shortly after the worldwide official PiP introduction at the Frankfurt Auto Show in Germany last Fall:

Toyota | 2012 Toyota Prius PHV Media Preview - Bob Carter

"The Prius Plug-in that will go on sale next March can be driven about 15 miles on battery power alone, which is about 15-percent more than the demonstration vehicles that have been out on the road this past year, and at speeds up to 62 miles-per-hour on pure EV."

Carter's announcement introducing the PiP for the U.S. market was widely covered. There is no statement about any specific test cycle (nor in any of Toyota U.S.A.'s related press releases). Yet there were repeated posts here and elsewhere from Prius Plugin enthusiasts comparing this 15 mile range claim against the EPA range estimate of 35 miles for the Volt. 

Toyota U.S.A.'s 15 mile ambiguous claim is overly optimistic.

The 15 mile claim exceeds the Frankfurt introduction claim that the PiP would likely achieve 14.3 all-electric miles on the official European NEDC test cycle (on which the Volt gets 51.6 miles).

In reality, the conditions that would get you 15 miles on battery in the PiP would result in 50+ miles in a Volt. Few drivers will routinely get that many miles in their typical daily driving of either car.

After the EPA estimate of an 11 mile range with the help of a mile worth of gasoline was released there were several postings here from people disappointed by the lower number.

I wasn't surprised since I had all along been reminding folks here that a realistic EPA equivalent electric range would likely be 10 miles (I wasn't assuming gasoline assistance would be necessary).


Here are some typical resulting media reports:

"Toyota announced last week that its plug-in Prius, with 15 miles of all-electric range, will cost $32,780 when it goes on sale early next year, $8,500 more than the entry-level Prius Two, which costs $24,280."

Banished from the H.O.V. Lane, Prius Drivers May Be First to Embrace New Plug-In Model - NYTimes.com

"The new battery pack is good for a 15 miles (24 kilometers) electric range, and the PHEV Prius can go up to 62 MPH (100 KPH) in EV mode..."

Toyota Unveils 2012 Prius Plug-in (87 MPGe, $32k) : TreeHugger

"Like the Volt, the Prius Plug-in will allow drivers to operate in electric mode exclusively if they limit their excursions to 15 miles at speeds of up to 62 mph."

Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid takes on Chevy Volt

 

ROFL don't point out facts Jeff people hate those.

 

What is your point?

Anyone who takes any type of press release at face value is at risk of interpretation problems. That's why there is fine print on the window sticker. You can't just look at the big numbers exclusively.

Real-World data is what influences sales, not announcements.
.

 

Jeff N posted this Bob Carter (of Toyota) Quote: "The Prius Plug-in that will go on sale next March can be driven about 15 miles on battery power alone, which is about 15-percent more than the demonstration vehicles that have been out on the road this past year, and at speeds up to 62 miles-per-hour on pure EV."

That is the sort of crap hype I expect and routinely hear from GM, not Toyota. I hope Carter was taken to task. Fwiw, I think Toyota injudiciously mixed up EV blended mode and pure EV miles. I wonder if they were influenced by the EPA test cycle ? This is not an excuse -- I am just wondering.

 

The key word is can be driven about 15 miles on battery power alone.He did not say Prius PHV would be rated AER = 15 miles. Toyota website gave the range of 10 to 15 miles. That's what we are seeing with the initial data coming in.

 

By the way, 15 miles on 3 kwh is 200 wh/mile. EPA testing of the PiP is about 15% higher, so I imagine this is quite correct for the LA4 test. IIRC, Toyota clarified on other occasions that was the test they use for PR estimates, but I do not have a link handy.