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Pascal's wager

Discussion in 'Fred's House of Pancakes' started by daniel, Mar 18, 2012.

  1. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    There goes the boulder again....
     
  2. qbee42

    qbee42 My other car is a boat

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    No, that's not what I meant by "editors". I meant men that decided what pieces to keep and what parts to drop, and they did this effort well after the fact. Instead of scribes, it was more like a Chicago boiler room meeting of powerful king-makers.

    But there really isn't any reason to debate this. Your belief system is absolute, and it tells you absolutely that the Bible is the Word of God. Any evidence to the contrary is by definition heresy, so debate is pointless.

    Tom
     
  3. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    Over a period of time, presumably by followers led by God, canonized the Bible. If there was anything out of place, false or otherwise, it would not have lasted the test of time. Though many have tried, they will never eliminate it.
    Agreed,,, so what was your point? No wait, you said "evidence to the contrary"... what does that mean or what are you implying?
     
  4. spiderman

    spiderman wretched

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    My faith is purrrfectly logical to me. I can look at the purrrfect order in creation and see God's hand in it. Just because you can't, doesn't make you right.
     
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  5. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    Logic is wasted on an illogical mind.
     
  6. drinnovation

    drinnovation EREV for EVER!

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    Totally agree that there are good and bad that believe and that don't believe. Belief without living a good life is silly. But even worse are those that use their belief as a pretense for doing harm.


    Actually I did not make that assumption as it is unnecessary. Only some religions require belief for, others only require good living. What I found in common across religions with an infinite afterlife is good living. Reinterpreting Pascals wager in the broader context leads to conclusions about good living. The added issue of "belief" is still there for some models, but also still up to the individual. I would agree that if there is a just god, the requirement for belief in a particular religion's representation of that god, for belief in ONLY their representation, is a manifestation of human thirst for power and control. That is actually the point of my poem.

    Belief without adherence to in a particular religions philosophy is not only possible, it is easy ;-). In that sense the wager is easy to accept even if the probably of winning is small.

    Curious if you don't believe, then why live a good life and why worry about the environment after you pass away? Gas will last your lifetime..
     
  7. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    Didn't you say once you preferred not getting personal? (as in evaluating whether or not someone's mind is logical)

    What's wrong with just acknowledging there is a difference of opinion? .... Of course, that's exactly the problem with this topic.
     
  8. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    So you are saying that without Martin Luther King, it would have been correct to keep the racial policies?

    Besides, most people opposing King didn't think he was going the high road.

    Sam Harris is about as gentle a disputant as you are going to find in any debate. Certainly more than Dr. King.
     
  9. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    ^ so if you disagree with me, twist my statements instead of addressing them? {sigh}

    MLK advocated non-violence, was not a rabble-rouser, non-militant - not Malcolm X. In the context of my post, I mean militant rhetoric, not violence.

    Last I checked, MLK's birthday is celebrated in the US.


    I know Sam Harris less well than Dawkins or Hitchens, but I will give him credit for debating William Lane Craig.
     
  10. hyo silver

    hyo silver Awaaaaay

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    Yes, and I'd still say the same thing. It applies to me as much as anyone else. Sometimes frustration gets the better of us.

    Still, as personal insults go, 'illogical' isn't exactly a flaming, putrid epithet.
     
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  11. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    ^ anyway, thank you for deciding to limit it to the ideas - not the members.
     
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  12. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    I do not conjecture about the character of a non-existent god. I point out the illogic of believers who imagine, for no reason whatsoever, that god must be a nice guy. And there is nothing wrong with my saying, as I have said and do say: "I believe there is no god. But if there is, you have no basis upon which to conclude its character.


    Pascal's wager is specifically about belief. You are free to make a parallel argument that hinges on behavior. The same logical fallacies are present. The bet hinges BOTH on the existence of an afterlife, AND on the conditions one must fulfill to achieve a desirable afterlife. You cannot ignore the latter.

    There is massively abundant evidence for the existence of China. There is ZERO evidence for the existence of a god.

    There IS NO DATA. there are merely assertions. Assertions are not data.

    You say: If there is a god, then living a good life will get you a reward, and living a bad life will get you punished; while if there is no god, then there is no reward or punishment. The flaw in your logic is that if there's a cruel god, then living a good life could get you punished and living a bad life could get you a reward. Simply changing the assumption about the character of god completely reverses the outcome of the "experiment."

    And I can speak about your assumptions of the character of god, because those assumptions are integral to the fallacy of your argument.

    I'm not entirely sure what you mean here. I think you need to proofread your posts better.

    But I will note that the belief of "billions of people" is neither proof nor evidence nor data. It is the fallacy of argument by popularity: "If a lot of people believe something, it must be right." I am sure you would disagree with that under other circumstances.

    See above. The belief of large numbers of people is not "weak evidence." It is not evidence at all.

    I like this theology. Unfortunately, there are many Christians (and they are a growing number today) who categorically disagree with you. The Calvinist view "by scripture alone, by faith alone, by grace alone" is emphatic in stating that scripture, belief, and grace are all that matter. (I intensely dislike Calvinism, BTW.) And many fundamentalist sects today embrace this aspect of Calvinism along with some others.

    No, conclusions are only as valid as their assumptions. If the assumptions are unreliable, the conclusions are worthless.

    Disease, starvation, earthquakes that kill children by the thousands, a life cycle in which people kill each other for profit and animals rip each other apart to eat their flesh, all this is "perfect"??? Routing the urethra through the prostate (rather than around it) so that when the prostate inevitably becomes enlarged it will block urination and cause a horribly painful death is "perfect"???

    You have a very different definition of "perfect" than I do.

    On this we agree.

    Then you've made an incomplete review of religions. The ancient Greeks and Romans, for example, believed in an infinite afterlife where there is neither joy nor sorrow, neither pain nor pleasure. Everyone went there regardless of how they lived. Paul was a genius when he invented the idea of heaven for believers, as the hope of such an afterlife was very appealing to people. But the fact that it was appealing, and therefore brought converts, does not make it true, nor is it evidence (weak or otherwise).

    Because I'm a human being, with the same feelings and desires as other human beings. This has nothing to do with beliefs. It has to do with human nature. Cruelty displeases me, and kindness pleases me. In this I think you and I are the same. The only difference is that I do not attribute these feelings to a god. We are a social animal and have evolved to care about others because in such caring we improve the group's chances of survival, and therefore our own.

    They called him a Communist, they slandered him, they accused him of trying to destroy America, they threw him in jail, and finally they murdered him.

    Once he was safely dead, they gave him a holiday.

    "Christian" America has an abominable and shameful history with regard to Martin Luther King, Jr. and his message of nonviolent resistance to the evil that was United States government racial policy before and during his lifetime.
     
  13. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    ^ Again, MLK was not Malcolm X.

    Some called MLK a Communist - that word is about as abused as Nazi - seriously....two words used way too often by very opinionated people that can't face most don't agree with their (often extreme) POV. (general observation - not directed at anyone on this thread) Even today, people considered archconservatives a generation ago are being tagged "socialists" and the like. Then there was Sen Joe McCarthy.

    People are often not remembered well until they are dead, so MLK is not getting singled out.

    Daniel, thank you for putting "Christian" in quotes, as the treatment to MLK often was anything but to this Baptist preacher.
     
  14. Rae Vynn

    Rae Vynn Artist In Residence

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    So that is Pascal's wager? uh, I didn't know that, though I've heard of the concept of "live like there is a god, just in case you die and find out there is"...

    Personally, I have a simple philosophy of what makes a "good" religion.
    There are three simple tests:
    1) Does it make you connected with the better part of yourself?
    2) Does it make you feel connected with the divine? (this could be your higher self, god, goddess, His Noodly Goodness, or just the Universe in general)
    3) Does it make you play nicer with others?

    If you can say YES to all three of them, it's cool.

    So, how many religious people are failing at #3? Doesn't matter what religion you are... and, yes, even atheists can take/pass/fail this test. If your life/ethical foundation isn't bringing out the best in you, and isn't connecting you to something bigger than you, and helping you connect to others better, it ain't working.

    Daniel, I love you. Just the way you are.
     
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  15. Rokeby

    Rokeby Member

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    Albert Camus: Dealing with the Absurdity of the human condition

    [​IMG]

    So here we are: poor creatures desperately seeking hope and meaning in a hopeless,
    meaningless world. Sartre, in his essay-review of The Stranger provides an additional
    gloss on the idea: “The absurd, to be sure, resides neither in man nor in the world, if you
    consider each separately. But since man’s dominant characteristic is ‘being in the world,’
    the absurd is, in the end, an inseparable part of the human condition.†The absurd, then,
    presents itself in the form of an existential opposition. It arises from the human demand
    for clarity and transcendence on the one hand and a cosmos that offers nothing of the
    kind on the other. Such is our fate: we inhabit a world that is indifferent to our sufferings
    and deaf to our protests.

    In Camus’ view there are three possible philosophical responses to this predicament. Two
    of these he condemns as evasions; the other he puts forward as a proper solution.

    Our first choice is blunt and simple: physical suicide. If we decide that a life without some
    essential purpose or meaning is not worth living, we can simply choose to kill ourselves.
    Camus rejects this choice as cowardly. In his terms it is a repudiation or renunciation of
    life, not a true revolt.

    Choice two is the religious solution of positing a transcendent world of solace and
    meaning beyond the Absurd. Camus calls this solution “philosophical suicide†and rejects
    it as transparently evasive and fraudulent. To adopt a supernatural solution to the problem
    of the absurd (for example, through some type of mysticism or leap of faith) is
    to annihilate reason, which in Camus’ view is as fatal and self-destructive as physical
    suicide. In effect, instead of removing himself from the absurd confrontation of self and
    world like the physical suicide, the religious believer simply removes the offending world,
    replacing it, via a kind of metaphysical abracadabra, with a more agreeable alternative.

    Choice three (in Camus’ view the only authentic and valid solution) is simply to accept
    absurdity, or better yet to embrace it, and to continue living. Since the absurd in his view
    is an unavoidable, indeed defining, characteristic of the human condition, the only proper
    response to it is full, unflinching, courageous acceptance. Life, he says, can “be lived all
    the better if it has no meaning.â€

    The example par excellence of this option of spiritual courage and metaphysical revolt is
    the mythical Sisyphus of Camus’ philosophical essay. Doomed to eternal labor at his rock,
    fully conscious of the essential hopelessness of his plight, Sisyphus nevertheless pushes
    on. In doing so he becomes for Camus a superb icon of the spirit of revolt and of the
    human condition. To rise each day to fight a battle you know you cannot win, and to do
    this with wit, grace, compassion for others, and even a sense of mission, is to face the
    Absurd in a spirit of true heroism.


    Don't sell this guy short, he has a lot more to say, such as:

    The companion theme to the Absurd in Camus’ oeuvre (and the only other philosophical
    topic to which he devoted an entire book) is the idea of Revolt. What is revolt? Simply
    defined, it is the Sisyphean spirit of defiance in the face of the Absurd. More technically
    and less metaphorically, it is a spirit of opposition against any perceived unfairness,
    oppression, or indignity in the human condition.


    More: Camus, Albert [Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy]

    Albert Camus: THE MYTH OF SISYPHUS
     
  16. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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  17. daniel

    daniel Cat Lovers Against the Bomb

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    The United States Federal Bureau of Investigation called MLK a Communist. The F.B.I. slandered him and ran a years-long never-ending campaign of lies and propaganda, fomenting hatred against him, which probably contributed to his being murdered.

    We're not talking about a few isolated nut jobs here. We're talking about the full force of the United States government, at a time when racism was official U.S. government policy.

    I like this. That's why I like Wiccans, witches, and neo-pagans. Though I do not accept any of their supernatural beliefs, I like that their beliefs lead them to being gentle towards the Earth and those who live on it.

    If Christians passed test #3 I'd have no quarrel with them. And believe it or not, I get along very well with those who do.

    Thank you, Rene. The feeling is mutual. (Though you are a much easier person to like than I am. :D)

    Smart guy! -- And an excellent response to people who say that the only way to deal with life is to believe in a fairy tale.

    There are those who claim this world is perfect, and then in the next breath say that the only way to remain sane is to believe (with or without evidence) that there's something better waiting afterwards.
     
  18. drinnovation

    drinnovation EREV for EVER!

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    Let us consider a small set of choice, like a let-make-a-deal scenario.
    Let p1, p2, p3, p4 be probability of various binary variable v1,v2,v3, v4 that impact the outcomes. we'll use a normalized return on the choice

    Code:
    Choice A:  
                   Return -1 if V1=1, V2=0
                   Return .00000001 if V1=0
                   Return 0  otherwise
    
    Choice B:  
                   Return 1 if V1=1, V2=1, V3=1
                   Return 0 otherwise.  
    
    Choice C:  
                   Return 1 if V1=1, V2=1, V3=0, V4=1
                   Return -1  if  V1=1, V2=1, V3=1, V4=1
                   Return -1  if  V1=1, V2=1, V3=0, V4=0
                   Return 0 otherwise.  
    
    Choice D:  
                   Return 1 if V1=1, V2=1, V3=0, V4=0
                   Return -1  if  V1=1, V2=1, V3=1, V4=1
                   Return -1  if  V1=1, V2=1, V3=0, V4=1
                   Return 0 otherwise.   
    
    Choice E:  
                   Return -1 if V1=1, V2=0
                   Return .00000001 if V1=1, V2=1
                   Return .00000001 if V1=0
                   Return 0  otherwise
    
    Choice F:  
                   Return -1 if V1=1, V2=1, V3=1
                   Return -.00001 otherwise.  
    
    
    Under what conditions on the probabilities p1, p2 and p3 would you choose A through F?

    You don't need to answer the actual numbers just relative ordering of probabilities is often sufficient. E.g. it is rational to avoid choice 6 under any setting of p1, p2 p3, p4 and considering only a decision about choice C or D, its rational to choose C if p4 > .5 and prefer D if p4 < .5.

    If you are forced to make a choice, which one do you choose and why?
    (And don't complain its a false dichotomy, the number of choices could be larger but that does not change the analysis one does.. )
     
  19. Chuck.

    Chuck. Former Honda Enzyte Driver

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    I find it strange that some here take J Edgar Hoover's accusations that MLK was a Communist without some skepticism > Martin Luther King, Jr. - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    This is just a sideshow to divert from a point some of you are having difficulty with: Dawkins and Hitchens prefer militant rhetoric - MLK took a higher road and echewed violence and militancy....succeeded over Malcolm X, who happens to be the model most atheists are following.
     
  20. Corwyn

    Corwyn Energy Curmudgeon

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    That is funny.

    Shall we talk about most christians now?