Near future of EVs

My first post in this local domain. Da wif is thinking about buying a car. I see several lithium batt companies talking about their 400 watt hours per kilogram technology, which would be, um, adequate.

Mission statement: I expect that hydrocarbon fuels (in short supply and great demand) will only become more expensive. However, as 'renewable' electrical generation is already on par (or nearly so) with fossil C, I suppose that electricity costs may not much further rise. So I consider the EV platform now, with a plan to drop in better (range) batteries later.

So my question is, what vehicle manufacturer offers the best (small car) platform now? Or, which others might do so soon?

I am in China, where BYD is making hybrid cars, so they have enough technology, but I do not see them quickly moving to pure EV. That domainated by Nissan and Chevrovet (and Toyota certainly could ). I cannot see over the horizon to who might offer the next EV.

But, perhaps you can. I would be interested in your thoughts about vehicles now and in the near future.

Have I wrongly excluded Tesla or others? Recall I am talking about humble sedans. Not so odd, in that most car buyers in the next decade would probably have a similar 'mission'.

As much as I love the hybrid Prius, it would not be my choice here in China. Give me a bulletproof inverter and a good electric motor and I'll trust the battery people to provide 'range vs. cost' solutions.

This is posed as a personal quesiton but I have little doubt that it is fundamental to the evolution of personal vehicles over the next decade or two. What say the experts?

 

Thanks, the E6 looks like a contender, and I was not really following the market closely enough to know of it. Glad that somebody was

I see 2 minuses to (e.g.) Toyota Prius in China. The price is amazingly inflated because of foreign content tariff rules. This although it was assembled in country. Or, at least it was.

Second, perhaps specific to cities other than 'first tier' like Beijing and Shanghai. Prius are so rare that the service capability has not yet been developed. I can maintain them up to a certain level, but ultimately someone with the scan tool and training would be needed.

I think neither of those is a problem in Hong Kong, where Prius are plentiful. However I have seen a total of 4 (maybe 5?) in Kunming.

Sorry I was not more lucid. The issue would be whether the wife would go for the 186 mile (realistically, probably <250 kilometers) and 6-hour recharge time. The decision would mostly be hers. It would primarily be an urban transporter with infrequent road trips. Overnight hotel every 250 km? Well...

I thought my expectation for the future, that liquid fuels would continue upwards but electricity not, was rather clever. Guess not eh?

 

Anything assembled outside of China will bear a substantial price burden here. Even the BYD E6 with anticipated government subsidies looks like $USD 40K. I think that would be a hard sell for almost anyone, with a locally assembled Ford Focus gasser selling for half that. The Focus is a fine little car. BYD also makes gassers, that some would call Toyota design ripoffs.

The issue for me is total lifetime cost, influenced by (anticipated) total distance driven. Gasoline is about $USD 5 here now, and as I suggested above I don't see much upper limit to that unit cost. It will rise according to the vehicle choices made in this country, and in others nearer to you. The world will not refine gasoline faster in the next decade than it does now, or so I expect. So price = demand.

To my knowledge there are no Leafs, Volts or Teslas in China. Not one. Plenty of Mercedes etc. for those for whom money or carbon are not important matters. but don't get me started on that...

 

Yunnan province, in the southwest, has both substantial rainfall and topographic change. So there are energetic rivers and a lot of hydroelectric. This province is 50% hydro and 50% coal. For China overall it is about 75% coal -> electricity.

Rooftop solar water heaters are abundant in every city & most villages I have visited (probably not Harbin though ). This seems to be getting phased out as a result of the building boom.

In earlier decades the standard Chinese apartment building was <7 stories. A law requiring elevators in taller residential bldgs. makes them cost more to build. But the current style is 15 to 25 stories, with relatively small footprints. This is efficient in many ways, but there is by far not enough roof space to accommodate solar collectors for all the apartments.

 

Thanks. Yes it is clear that several EV lines are beginning in China. Price is going to be an issue, perhaps compounded by delayed availability here in the sleepy southwest.

The compact gasser sedans present much lower purchase price. But the fuel is already 8 RMB per liter (USD$5/gallon approx) and I doubt most fundamentally that it will go anywhere except up. Meanwhile the conventional SUV and lux-car commercials. are abundant on TV. It is a real "what are you guys thinking?" situation for me.

More likely in the near term is adding another EV scooter. Y'all know those are big here. Helmets are not though, which is another story...