Ford reveals true battery cost

We had Toyota telling us a couple of years ago that Li was $1200/kwh and Nimh was less than half as much, which means less than $600/kwh. Replacement batery packs are not priced at anything near toyota costs. Panasonic has a monopoly on nimh car batteries and PEV is the only source of the batteries. Toyota charges that price because of low volume and profit Many replacement parts are even 10x costs.

Little prius nimh have achieved all the cost savings, but there is no reason why a switch to limh in the appropriate sized pack can not cost toyota $300. Its still a standard cell. Tesla has lower cost with their small consumer cells.

yeah, no. Lithium has higher power and likely larger SOC, which means you can use a smaller pack switching to Li than nimh. IIRC this information was out with the slightly different cells in the alpha Toyota uses two different panasonic cells, but price should not be much different.

Bad reporting Transit connect went out too at $750/KWH, now we get $650 for the focus EV. Panasonic anounced ford was using them on the energi models, which is a vendor switch. I would expect the panasonic cells to be less expensive which means less than $650 for the batteries in the prius phv.

No this is the Tesla which is about $57K for 40kwh pack Tesla uses panasonic consumer chemistry which is even less expensive.

 

Not really 'is' until some are actually sold and on the road right?

Either way will never be "mass produced" which is what I was talking about, not niche cars. A major mfr's EV offering is currently smaller cars because of the cost of the battery.

Even at $300 a kwh the Ford's battery is $6900. When you add in controls, motors and all the other running gear it is still an expensive drivetrain.

But, I'm not arguing against it, I was just pointing out that it really wan't that ridiculous when compared to a Prius battery price which, even if it is $600 is pretty darn close and we are comparing NiMH apples to Lion oranges still.

 

Nooooo. You don't recognize the emblem? 100% EV. The $57K Tesla Model S - 160 mile per charge ... or for a itty bitty higher price (extra $20k) you can get the 300 mile range battery. Hmmmm quick rough/back of the napkin/rounding numbers. Extra 140 mile range, for $20K. At 3 miles per kWh ... that'd be an extra 46kWh to the pack size. 46kWh for $20k? $1K+ per kWh?

 

No, they have a contract with LG Chem. That is the contract price There are probably some wrinkles in the contract about volume which is what the price range is all about

The tesla S isn't a small car. LG Chem is supplying the volt which is being mass produced this year, and we can suspect the volts volume is what allows the lower price Higher volumes should drop the cost of lithium batteries. Tesla is the innovator and is using larger batteries for power and range. The leaf with 24Kkh is the largest major manufacturers battery, well bellow the 85kwh tesla. Cost is a big reason.

But it does shoot a giant hole in the argument that nimh is much cheaper than lithium. With its advantages of lower weight, smaller volume, and higher power given a standard energy these prices mean that no new nimh designs will be taken on.

 

A 85kwh tesla S can go 0 to 60 in 4.4 seconds. You need a much more expensive BMW to compete, perhaps a M5 to compete with the feel of the electric pull. This is the top end of things and price isn't really involved. These are premium cars that people don't buy for TCO, they buy them because they like them.

A slower 40kwh tesla S will be about $50K after $7500 subsidy, and more in line with say a bmw 528i. But there is that limited range problem. Tesla is charging $20K/45kwh or $445/kwh. They are making money on the rest of the car but this may be close to their costs. Tesla is using a lower cost consumer chemistry from panasonic.

 

Toyota still has to ship the assembly, or at least the raw cells, over the ocean. And having worked with these assemblies, I can tell you that there is no small amount of labor that goes into putting them together. It is a PITA and cannot be automated. Even at $500/kWh for raw modules, that's still $650 per Prius pack, then you have to add labor for assembly, then shipping and distrubution. It may not be as much as $1000, but it is way more than $300 to get these things to a dealership. You'll never see them sell for less than $2000 wholesale, $2500 retail.

 

I was agreeing with your numbers for nimh packs.

What I was proposing was a new prius, say gen IV that runs on lithium that was made in america might significantly drop the battery price. I have no doubt that given enough volume some of the assembly could be automated. A 1kwh lithium using 55% state of charge instead of the nimh 40% might be able to provide the same energy with higher power bursts as the current prius battery. Toyota's cost might drop to $300 at the factory. The price of replacement parts is likely to be much higher than cost.

 

Good idea.. Some of us call that the Volt. Not really 50+50, but the closest thing you can get today (I average 43+40)

 

I so wanted to get a Volt (US built and I could do my commute on no gas) but I park on the street and have no place to plug in.

We should give the Volt a $20K tax break so GM can crank them out, build up economies of scale, US jobs and technology.

Had to move on my Escape hybrid and Prius was lowest gas use for me. So for next three years. If only Ford or GM had a 50 mpg car, I'd have gone that route.

We'll see what happens in three years.

 

Yup.. BEV and PHEV don't work so well without a plug. There are a few volt owners on gm-volt.com that actually dont' charge at home, only at work. Even one that charges only "near" work (at a public station), not at work or at home.

 

I think the Plug-ins have to be self sustaining. I don't see an infrastructure outside the personal "garage". Just too impractical. If we want everyone to drive a Plug-in and use no gasoline for their commute, it is impractical to provide plugs for each vehicle in the parking lot.

I can see having some emergency spots setup with a parking meter like deal where you get an hour's(?) charge and big ticket if you don't move on and let the next guy in but that would mean eight people per meter per day or less depending on charging rates.

Vehicles have to be self sustaining. Round trip to work.

 

we know that all things being equal, it is not going to be lower cost for lithium over nimh.

sure it might be cheaper if produced in usa than in japan, but so will be nimh too.

so what would be the point of lithium in Prius? 10hp extra, 30lbs less?

We do know that Toyota will be moving to lithium for sure, i am not sure what exactly... but sure enough news of them buying shares in lithium ore mining companies around the world.

 

The panasonic press releases have lithium just slightly more expensive than nimh today. The trend line for lithium is down. The cost for manufacture in the US is also lower than Japan, and the DOE is giving subsidies to build lithium battery plants. That means that in the near future lithium batteries will be less expensive than nimh, in america. Panasonic has also said they are building lithium car battery manufacturing in China.

In a phev or bev the size and weight of nimh are major disadvantages, but soon cost will also be a disadvantage of nimh. This is assuming the technology follows the cost reductions of the battery technology in consumer electronics. The big hold up in hv for toyota would be the carb requirements for a 10 year warranty. Its tough to stress test the batteries fast for that. Toyota is testing them in the alpha sold in japan and Europe though, and I'm sure stress testing them in the lab.

A lithium battery is roughly 1/3 lighter, but it is smaller. Packaging is a premium in new car designs which is why toyota is first trying lithium hybrid batteries in the alpha. In the aqua/prius c they used a lower power battery to save space. In a redesign if costs continue to come down a lithium battery would be a nice upgrade. In the current generation prius it would not do much, but I expect one in the next generation.

 

battery price; Fusion Hybrid Battery. $4889.48 also checked 2010 Price and it was $11,797.29 same pack.

the Focus EV Battery is not in the catalog.

 

The EEVC has been discussing this through e-mails. Here's part of my contribution:

Perhaps Mulally's numbers are a bit high intentionally. I don't believe to mislead the industry. Competitors know the raw material pricing. He's misleading the journalists & buying public that are either too lazy, too naive, or too stupid to do the analysis. Build expectations that a product is going to be high priced because it is full of expensive parts & you'll get a free pass & a higher profit margin or intro the product at a lower price & look good making Marketing's job easier.

Tesla is selling 20kwh worth of batteries for $10000 ($500/kwh) and another 25kwh for $10000 ($400). The stock 40kwh battery then should be responsible for $16000-$20000 of the $57400 for the base car. The high estimate of the stock batteries is more than Mom paid OTD for her 2012 Malibu.

"Could it be that for them, battery price has already dropped below the $500 per kilowatt-hour mark?

We think it’s highly likely, proving yet again that electric car battery prices are getting cheaper by the day."

If Tesla's retail price is $400-$500 then their cost has to be less. How much less I don't know. What do the EV builders pay per kwh now?

No, batteries aren't going to get cheaper by the day. Computer chips don't get cheaper by the day. There probably isn't anything that gets cheaper by the day. Perhaps year-to-year prices fall due to volume pricing or manufacturing efficiencies. If demand outpaces supply prices increase.

Decreases in manufacturing costs don't have to translate into lower prices.

 

Jim,
Everyone has assumed that tesla battery packs are less expensive than those used in these other cars. In the roadster they used consumer cells that were cheaper. In the S, panasonic claims "automotive grade", but I think this just means they have tested these consumer chemistry for tesla's specification. The other manufacturers have gone for car specific chemistries which they claim will last longer, but only time will tell. Toyota is going to use teslas battery packs in the rav4, but is going with automotive chemistries in the phv and alpha.

Telsa also committed to cells for 80,000 cars which use between 40kwh and 85kwh. That is much higher volume than other commitments, which may be part of the lower pricing. The battery pack is flat in the floor of the S like the transit connect to save space.

 

I'd buy one ... if it had seating for 5 ... better visibility ... Toyota reliability, and higher MPG in CS mode. I'm hoping (AS AN OPTION, at least) GM will re-think the big/heavy battery (maybe go for a 20 mile range, & WAY less cost) ... big heavy wheels (get better CS mpg's) and enlarge the passenger capacity. Then you'd have a PiP - plus a teeny bit more efficiency ... maybe even a PiP competitor!
:rockon:

.

 

Hill,
I think you are describing the CMAX - energi, which will be out later this year. With the smaller pack you can't lock into EV mode at all speeds, which is one drawback of smaller packs. It has more room in back if you actually have 5 people than the prius phv. It is heavier than a volt, but gets your better CS fuel economy, it should be in the mid 40s combined. I don't expect rear seat room will be a major selling point of the car, if that is what you need you may want a bigger CUV or SUV.

I totally disagree about 17" rims, they are rather standard now. People are willing to give up a mpg or two for that.

Battery costs are going down. Weight doesn't matter that much on highway efficiency. It does in the city, but that is where a EREV shines with regen and high efficiency. The only reason for a smaller pack is physical volume and cost. With tax credits in california and toyota dealers asking premiums on the phv - the phv and volt cost almost the same today.

GM has talked about doing what you ask in a less expensive plug in cruze, but I expect that to bomb.

 

thats a lot of assumptions... for instance, so far nobody has been able to package their lions better than toyota their nimhs... nor make them lighter in real life total package.

even if "only" issue is reliability, thats probably big reason for Toyota to stay nimh...do we want our batteries to have half the life of current ones?