May 5th... the next super-moon, could bring in a super quake...

Ever think of learning a bit about a subject before making a complete fool of yourself?

 

Mojo@21: If irony could kill, I'd be a sick man now.

But I was expecting Corbyn to be mentioned after the X5.4 solar flare 21012 March 7. Followed by (smaller) M1.5 2012 April 16. They were both widely reported at the time.

But the point is, were they predicted by Piers? What terrestrial (weather and earthquake events) were triggered by those, and also predicted by PC?

A bigger one in 2011 August 9. X6.9 is a substantial event. Not predicted either? no consequential earth events predicted either?

Piers has promoted a system for which tests of hypothesis are quite straightforward.

Gotta watch what we say about the man though - he sues his detractors.

 

Man you have a ton of gall.What have you predicted that came true?
But I can fault you also for what you didn't predict?
I presented facts ,You and Daniel can't dispute them ,but you're attempts are puerile.
The proper counter to my claim would be to show facts disproving my statements.
I'm supposed to prove all your dates because you're too lazy to find any discrepancy?
OK I'm a sucker.
News from WeatherAction
Aug 11,2011 -Aug 14 2011 EXTRATOP RED warning, highest level warning.
Here's an archive of predictions.You study them and report back if his predictions are less than 85%.
Welcome

 

BTW Daniel,
You are an older person who spends more time outdoors than most.
But didn't have a clue that the full moon rises at sunset, until I informed you.
You've probably seen more moonrises than any of us.
This maybe another clueless moment.

 

Mojo, you call yourself a sucker, but i'd say 'dedicated enthusiast'. If not dedicated enough to bring these matters to our attention in advance, then at least enough so to provide the links later upon request.

First link takes me to a pdf that does not open on my computer. Sad, that.

Second points to this related pdf

http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews12No12.pdf

I'd I'd be grateful if you or another Corbyn follower could decode it:
Did he predict the solar flare in advance?
What is the basis for asserting that the Argentina M6.1 earthquake was caused by it? A single event caused by something? Neither of us would pay much attention to a climate scientist claiming that a single event was caused by climate change.
Also, in hours and days following the flare, synoptic weather conditions changed, at least somewhere on the earth. Let me tell you, if they had not changed somewhere on the earth, that would have been surprising.

Now, one of us suspends our shared, healthy level of scepticism when it comes to Corbyn. Fine. Before the sunspot max of the current cycle arrives in 2013/2014, it is a fair guess that there will be several more significant coronal mass ejections.

Perhaps we can find a Corbyn enthusiast sufficiently dedicated to summarize the advance predictions of those flares, and advance predictions of weather or earthquake events tied to them. With an adequate sample size, patterns may emerge with statistical significance (even in the absence of a stated causal mechanism).

That would be a matter of interest, and surely I can request it out of curiousity.

Historical tests of correlations between solar flares and earthquakes?

solar flare earthquake - Google Scholar

returns 6080 hits.

I have enough gall to suggest that, if this is a topic that really interests you, sift through those. Find which ones support and which others refute the hypothesis. This is learning more than a bit about a subject.

 

Right back atcha, mojo! Your post that I responded to was the biggest bunch of pseudoscientific hooey I've seen on Prius Chat other than the medical quackery that some of our resident CAM aficionados like to post from time to time.

When did I ever fail to recognize that the full moon rises at sunset??? That's just basic planetary mechanics. Whoever "informed" me of that did so when I was a child, probably in kindergarden, so I'm sure it wasn't you unless you were my kindergarden teacher. But that was too long ago for me to remember. If you are in your 80's now perhaps you were my kindergarden teacher for all I know. Otherwise, you were not the one who "informed" me of this fact, and to say you were is as lunatic as your belief that solar flares cause earthquakes.

It's true, though, that I'm seldom out right at sunset. I'm a day hiker, and by sunset in summer I'm likely to be in bed.

 

What a relief that daniel know the moon thing! I was a bit concerned.

So while we await the next strongly worded defense of Corbyn, I pose the next moon question:

Solar eclipses happen during what lunar phase?

No fair looking it up. Just close your eyes and visualize...

 

Sweet! It worked. 12lb Chinook today. Tough overall effect seemed to be slow fishing, saw five caught for 50 boats today.

 

Next thing you know, Piers Corbin will be curing cancer, leaping tall buildings, balancing federal budgets!

Icarus

 

Obvious: For a solar eclipse to occur, the moon must be in front of the sun. Therefore the moon appears dark when viewed from the Earth. New moon.

 

Sweet another angler . . .

:fish2:

Mine . . .

 

Got a real nice pic of the moon last night The best part is it's in focus, while I put a lot of faith in my eyesight and camera, I think it was mainly due to the fact the ground was not shaking!

 

So here is what you can do to convince everybody.

1) Open a new thread, put one near term prediction in each day.
2) Everybody interested can add their prior probability of Corbin being able to predict accurately (you would probably use 85% you quoted).
3) For each prediction, posters can give their assessment of its likelihood.
4) You (or someone) can then compute everyone's post probability given Baye's theorem, and the outcome of the prediction.

Make sure that the predictions are as unambiguous as possible, or the entire thread will devolve to arguing about whether a prediction came true. In other words, if a time frame is given, it should be to the second, with a time zone. One second late, means a complete failure of the prediction.

 

Was playing around w/my camera for Super-Moon night...
Found that once zoomed in so the moon pretty much filled >50% of the frame good settings for lunar details were 1/60 sec, F16, ISO 800, of course mounted on a tripod and manual focus set at infinity mark (not cranked out all the way which is beyond infinity).

Tried to get the surrounding clouds at one point which required a 1-4 second exposure but that completely overexposed and washed out any lunar details. So really need two shots in this case- one 1/60 sec shot of the moon, then one 4 second shot for the clouds- then photoshop to merge the two.

 

Some will remember this video of the viewing size of planets if they are in the Moon's orbit.

Even if Mars was our moon, the tidal and tusami (sp) havoc would be considerable.

...and if it was a larger planet, it would be the end of us and perhaps the rest of life on Earth.

 

Well, pretty much if any major dynamic in our complex solar system changes.... we're screwed. If any planet takes a major hit which alters it's orbit even slightly it changes the equilibrium between the other planets/sun that's developed over a few billion years.

 

Earthquakes of M6.5 and above occur on average every 3 days. Mostly on the 'Pacific ring of fire'. I could predict those, and some would be impressed.

But our Corwyn (and his big brother Baye) would just squash me like a bug. Too bad for me.

Oddly enough, this supermoon has come and gone with no notably large quakes May 2-8. This is gonna happen from time to time, for events whose distributions have 'fat tails'. Unless of course they are triggered by factors from beyond the earth.

OTOH, there have been no solar flares during the week, so that potential causal is still (perhaps) awaiting its careful test. As I said earlier, there may be something to learn from that.

Hypotheses are viable until they are squashed like bugs. But let not their tests be defined by the people who stand to gain. For that, we have statisticians

Just for fun, I attach something from 'them' that I have been struggling with.

 

I admit that was a rare poor example of prediction of Solar triggering of Earthquakes.
I gather Piers has been accurate 80% with Quakes and/or Volcano prediction for the past year.
The past year has been a trial run for Q/V prediction.
One tidbit I googled, was that the Japan quake last year was under both a Super Moon and an "X Class" solar flare.
Solar Flare & Christchurch, New Zealand 6.3 earthquake February 22, 2011
August 3, 2010 when 6.4 Earthquake hit Papua New Guinea after an enormous magnetic filament breakingaway from the sun on august 1, 2010.

 

Contrary to Daniel's IGNORANT viewpoint,heres a bit more evidence from NASA.
As I stated before a solar flare can have the effect of covering the Earth in dynamite and exploding it all at once.
This doesnt cause an Earthquake,but if there is stress already in the Earths plates,a solar flare can be enough energy to trigger the release of the stress.
Piers Corbyn says volcanic activity can be released by the same trigger.
A Solar flare is only a TRIGGER,no accumulation of stress in Earths plates means no Earthquake.
BUT there is a higher probability of an Earthquake after a solar flare .




Whether solar flares can trigger earthquakes?

"We present the study of 682 earthquakes of ¡Ã4.0 magnitude observed during January 1991 to January 2007 in the light of solar flares observed by GOES and SOXS missions in order to explore the possibility of any association between solar flares and earthquakes. Our investigation preliminarily shows that each earthquake under study was preceded by a solar flare of GOES importance B to X class by 10-100 hrs. However, each flare was not found followed by earthquake of magnitude ¡Ã4.0."

 

Could not resist.